6 ms·

Pressumably things will start to snowball if these smaller scale trials demonstrate adaquate safety

ghaff 4y ago
One question is to what degree safety is dependent on testing in these specific good weather areas for literally years. And even the SF public self-driving area excludes what is almost certainly the somewhat harder area of SF for self-driving (though opening up much of SF is more impressive than Phoenix generally).
- SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
  Seems like fair weather tech at best at the moment. I just can't see these things working in a place like a Canadian winter without a few generational improvements. It starts with the basics, like knowing you have to start slowing down 3 blocks before the intersection if you don't want to slide through it, but also involves knowing how the driving culture changes during a storm. We can install like IR reflectors in the road so that they know where the lines are under the snow, but people don't know where the lines are, and so during a heavy snow day the lanes change and take on people's best guess and it becomes the new default choice as more people take the new paths. As is often repeated the most dangerous thing to be on the road is unpredictable, and I don't know if the self driving cars would have the ability to see the changes in lane positions and adjust, or if they'd be trying to follow the old lanes in a crowd of cars making their best guesses to make it home. Seems one of those "it won't work well until the vast majority of the cars are automated" type deals.
  - Zigurd 4y ago
    > the most dangerous thing to be on the road is unpredictable Google already has the biggest hive mind for predicting what's ahead. One reason I turn on Waze even when driving a familiar route is that I can see traffic and conditions ahead of me. Totally saved my butt when I noticed dozens of accidents ahead in what seemed like a light rain. The road had iced over. I got off at the next exit and waited it out, using Waze to know when traffic was moving again. Passed some horrifying big truck accident scenes yet to be cleared by tow trucks.
  - throwaway2037 4y ago
    You are right. You wrote: <<3 blocks before the intersection if you don't want to slide through it>> It sounds like road maintenance needs improvement in your city.
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      That's funny, with that framing it seems as though it won't be the robot cars fault for screwing up even though the majority of drivers can get home safe in those conditions. When it's -30 for a week you end up in a situation where road salt doesn't work and the exhaust from cars polishes intersections to an icy sheen. It's hard to protect against that.
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
    Humans suck in these conditions too. The solution is to go slower, pull over in the worst conditions, take an off ramp, don't drive in the first place, etc. These are all things humans have been known to do. Road lines are important but physical obstacles like other vehicles are more important.
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      Will the car follow through with these solutions as well? Are they set up to do that now? Can they make that assessment? Sounds like the solution here is just to not run the cars when people are going to be most likely to want to use it.
fullshark 4y ago
Even if it's safe...what's the short term benefit for riders beyond curiosity? Presumably cheaper fares + more throughput but the math is not obvious to me that owning a fleet of robotaxis will be a lucrative business to be in anytime soon, even if you are the only robotaxi company in town. Seems like they need to license this tech to have it payoff.
- adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
  cheaper fares is a really big deal. if you can deliver the same service 30% cheaper with 20% higher profit margins, that's massive. driver pay is a significant component of cost so cutting it is pretty massive.
  - fullshark 4y ago
    I guess, but if I'm getting a taxi, replacing a human with a computer is not a huge benefit to me, as I'm already not driving. If I'm driving myself to work every day, replacing that repetitive and boring task with a computer is a huge user benefit and thus I'd be more willing to pay and at a higher price for the tech. I just think that's the only real way to make this thing pay off. Also potentially it might work for long haul trucking.
    - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
      the benefit to the user isn't the computer, it's lower cost. the bushes model makes sense because you can lower user cost while increasing profit
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - spankalee 4y ago
        The benefit absolutely is the safer computer driver. I'd pay more for that.
  - 4y ago

One question is to what degree safety is dependent on testing in these specific good weather areas for literally years. And even the SF public self-driving area excludes what is almost certainly the somewhat harder area of SF for self-driving (though opening up much of SF is more impressive than Phoenix generally).

SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
Seems like fair weather tech at best at the moment. I just can't see these things working in a place like a Canadian winter without a few generational improvements. It starts with the basics, like knowing you have to start slowing down 3 blocks before the intersection if you don't want to slide through it, but also involves knowing how the driving culture changes during a storm. We can install like IR reflectors in the road so that they know where the lines are under the snow, but people don't know where the lines are, and so during a heavy snow day the lanes change and take on people's best guess and it becomes the new default choice as more people take the new paths. As is often repeated the most dangerous thing to be on the road is unpredictable, and I don't know if the self driving cars would have the ability to see the changes in lane positions and adjust, or if they'd be trying to follow the old lanes in a crowd of cars making their best guesses to make it home. Seems one of those "it won't work well until the vast majority of the cars are automated" type deals.
- Zigurd 4y ago
  > the most dangerous thing to be on the road is unpredictable Google already has the biggest hive mind for predicting what's ahead. One reason I turn on Waze even when driving a familiar route is that I can see traffic and conditions ahead of me. Totally saved my butt when I noticed dozens of accidents ahead in what seemed like a light rain. The road had iced over. I got off at the next exit and waited it out, using Waze to know when traffic was moving again. Passed some horrifying big truck accident scenes yet to be cleared by tow trucks.
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  You are right. You wrote: <<3 blocks before the intersection if you don't want to slide through it>> It sounds like road maintenance needs improvement in your city.
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    That's funny, with that framing it seems as though it won't be the robot cars fault for screwing up even though the majority of drivers can get home safe in those conditions. When it's -30 for a week you end up in a situation where road salt doesn't work and the exhaust from cars polishes intersections to an icy sheen. It's hard to protect against that.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
  Humans suck in these conditions too. The solution is to go slower, pull over in the worst conditions, take an off ramp, don't drive in the first place, etc. These are all things humans have been known to do. Road lines are important but physical obstacles like other vehicles are more important.
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    Will the car follow through with these solutions as well? Are they set up to do that now? Can they make that assessment? Sounds like the solution here is just to not run the cars when people are going to be most likely to want to use it.

fullshark 4y ago

Even if it's safe...what's the short term benefit for riders beyond curiosity? Presumably cheaper fares + more throughput but the math is not obvious to me that owning a fleet of robotaxis will be a lucrative business to be in anytime soon, even if you are the only robotaxi company in town. Seems like they need to license this tech to have it payoff.

adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
cheaper fares is a really big deal. if you can deliver the same service 30% cheaper with 20% higher profit margins, that's massive. driver pay is a significant component of cost so cutting it is pretty massive.
- fullshark 4y ago
  I guess, but if I'm getting a taxi, replacing a human with a computer is not a huge benefit to me, as I'm already not driving. If I'm driving myself to work every day, replacing that repetitive and boring task with a computer is a huge user benefit and thus I'd be more willing to pay and at a higher price for the tech. I just think that's the only real way to make this thing pay off. Also potentially it might work for long haul trucking.
  - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
    the benefit to the user isn't the computer, it's lower cost. the bushes model makes sense because you can lower user cost while increasing profit
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - spankalee 4y ago
      The benefit absolutely is the safer computer driver. I'd pay more for that.
- 4y ago