Past experience is not a perfect predictor, but still much better than almost anything else. I'm pretty sure you'd feel safer going into an operations if the su

Past experience is not a perfect predictor, but still much better than almost anything else. I'm pretty sure you'd feel safer going into an operations if the surgeon said "I've done this 100 times now" instead of "This is my first time with this procedure". Of course, it matters if the experience is directly relevant, and that's where hero worshiping often gets it wrong.