No — it doesn’t. When that chart turns negative, it means that the ratio of COVID deaths to non-COVID excess is less than one, ie there is more non-COVID exces

No — it doesn’t. When that chart turns negative, it means that the ratio of COVID deaths to non-COVID excess is less than one, ie there is more non-COVID excess death than COVID deaths. When there is no non-COVID excess, but still COVID deaths, the chart shoots up; when there’s none of either, it clamps to the black line. This is a log-scale chart of their ratio; that solid black line represents a ratio of 1, ie, equal amounts. The chart going below the black line represents positive excess death in a ratio that favors non-COVID excess deaths. Edit: I’ve added a log chart of excess deaths, with the black line at zero, ie, the expected amount. https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/shaded-excess-mortality.png https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/shaded-excess-mortality.pn... > concepts like "non-COVID excess" doesn't even start to make sense Sure they do: excess deaths which exceed the number of registered COVID deaths in the same period. We can detect that by looking at all cause mortality and subtracting identified COVID mortality.