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Taiwanese local elections from 2022 [1] are an indications that there won't be any need for a full-scale Chinese invasion. China is patient and they'll keep on

by Jerry2 4y ago

Taiwanese local elections from 2022 [1] are an indications that there won't be any need for a full-scale Chinese invasion. China is patient and they'll keep on influencing politicians and citizens of Taiwan until they acquiesce to Chinese rule. America's hegemony is on its last legs and being a massive thorn in China's side will not that advantageous anymore to Taiwan. The odds are pretty high that Taiwan will avoid the faith of becoming another Ukraine. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-votes-local-elections-amid-tensions-with-china-2022-11-26/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-votes-loca...

keewee7 4y ago
I don't know what you're trying to imply with that link. The vast majority of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China. One politician's failed attempt at using fear-mongering about imminent Chinese to get elected does not imply the Taiwanese want to become part of China.
- roenxi 4y ago
  We can all see what happened in Ukraine. The country is well on the way to being a smoking crater, they barely have a power grid, they've lost 10% of their land and something like 20% of their population have become refugees. We have yet to see the ramifications of pouring weapons into the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe but it is unlikely to be pretty either. Their economy is probably an ex-economy. If things go really wrong it is plausible that they will get nuked. Compare that Hong Kong, where life sucks but, end of the day, it isn't a war zone. Not as civilised as it once was, but still a respectable city. At the end of the day, there are some very difficult decisions to be made by Taiwan. Integration into China is an option that they will at least have to consider. It is a terrible option. It may be the best option they have. In their shoes, I'd be wargaming ditching the US and negotiating some sort of protectorate deal with China. Probably thinking very hard about trying to be grandfathered in as some sort of neutral Switzerland. War is still just as horrific as it ever was and being at war with the world's most industrial superpower is a very bad plan A.
  - philistine 4y ago
    Are you Taiwanese? You sound like a Star Wars imperialist making decisions for a local planet in their stead.
    - roenxi 4y ago
      No, I'm Australian. What do you think the best path forward is for the Taiwanese?
      - kortilla 4y ago
        Independence
        roenxi 4y ago
        That isn't really a path, that is a destination - how do you want them to keep their independence? Because if the plan is to sit on China's border as a staunch, militarily aligned US ally that is a plan with some very obvious risks - especially in light of what happened to Ukraine. In fact, the only way that ends well for Taiwan is if China experiences some sort of collapse. Possible, but not really a good strategy.
      - philistine 4y ago
        Whatever the Taiwanese decide themselves.
    - culi 4y ago
      I agree we should be supporting whatever it is the actual people of these countries want. Online discourses about what other countries should do drive me nuts If we had let the people decide in Ukraine, we probably wouldn't be at war now. Zelenskyy ran on and was largely elected because of a platform of making peace. And he kept his word once elected and negotiated a peace deal with Putin. It was the US and NATO that stepped in to break that apart when it was just about to be signed. The people of Ukraine clearly supported peace and we should have respected the people's will
HyperSane 4y ago
"America's hegemony is on its last legs" On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are. "Taiwan will avoid the faith of becoming another Ukraine." By just rolling over for China? Overall you seem pretty pro-CCP.
- tw1984 4y ago
  > On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are. Just checked my calendar again, it is 2022, not 1992. The US has a single challenger in this entire world, it is China. How strong/weak is Russia is irrelevant.
  - HyperSane 4y ago
    Russia likes to think it was a challenger to the US, and the US thought it was also until now. It took Russia's abysmal showing in the Ukraine invasion to show the world just how irrelevant Russia really is.
gsatic 4y ago
Oh I see and the reason their military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what? Worried about the Mongols?
- tw1984 4y ago
  Same question, why the US has to spend 800 billion $ a year? worried about an invasion by Mexico? That military budget got criticized by many Chinese. With a comparable GDP to the US, the CCP constantly refuses to further increase its military spending. As a result of such policy failure, its defense budget is just about 20% of the US one.
  - gsatic 4y ago
    The question stands, irrespective of what legacy or current dysfunction the US is suffering from. And Taiwan Invasion is the logical answer. There is really no other reason. Just look at US struggling to even raise a single Division of troops in Europe to support Ukraine. If they cant do it in Europe, there is no way they are a serious threat as far away as Taiwan.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  > military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what Because PRC has greater population and GDP than rest of region combined, of which she spends less than 2% on defense, less than most of her neighbours, less than what America wants NATO allies to spend on, and now less than JPs revised budget. All in all, too modest.
eloisius 4y ago
KMT simply have a better ground game when it comes to local elections. After 40 years of single-party rule, they are still the Good Ol’ Boys of local politics. People care more about DPP’s policies nationally. The electorate still overwhelmingly reject unification.
helsinkiandrew 4y ago
That's complete nonsense, every poll over the past 30 years has shown a constantly increasing number of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China. China's behaviour in Hong Kong will only likely strengthen that view. See the chart here: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-...
- culi 4y ago
  You should look at the source for that chart. Not sure why grid.news decided to do this, but the original chart[0] actually has 7 categories. grid.news left some of those out and (combined?) some others? Anyways I think the full data tells a pretty different story... There does seem to be recent (~2018) in support for independence. But the interesting thing is there was actually a shift towards more support for unification right before that. It's also probably important to take into account the methodology[1] and the low sample sizes corresponding with the largest shifts [0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 [1]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB%E6%85%8B%E5%BA%A6%E5%88%86%E4%BD%88%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AA%AA%E6%98%8E(methodology)202206.pdf https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%8...
  - helsinkiandrew 4y ago
    The original chart https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202206.jpg https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202206.jpg shows even more the movement away from unification with China. The lack of support for "Full Independence" rather than the Status Quo of effective independence they have now is usually explained by people not choosing a policy that provokes China into attack.
    - throwoutway 4y ago
      That’s exactly it. There’s interviews with the the president saying effectively that. A reporter tried to get her to say it on record, and she effectively said there’s no need. They de facto independence. No need to provoke an attack
chaostheory 4y ago
If it was true that this still was the CCP’s main strategy for Taiwan, it would have been a relief. This was the policy before Xi’s ascension. Unfortunately, Xi isn’t very bright or as patient as his predecessors.

by Jerry2 4y ago

keewee7 4y ago

I don't know what you're trying to imply with that link. The vast majority of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China. One politician's failed attempt at using fear-mongering about imminent Chinese to get elected does not imply the Taiwanese want to become part of China.

roenxi 4y ago
We can all see what happened in Ukraine. The country is well on the way to being a smoking crater, they barely have a power grid, they've lost 10% of their land and something like 20% of their population have become refugees. We have yet to see the ramifications of pouring weapons into the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe but it is unlikely to be pretty either. Their economy is probably an ex-economy. If things go really wrong it is plausible that they will get nuked. Compare that Hong Kong, where life sucks but, end of the day, it isn't a war zone. Not as civilised as it once was, but still a respectable city. At the end of the day, there are some very difficult decisions to be made by Taiwan. Integration into China is an option that they will at least have to consider. It is a terrible option. It may be the best option they have. In their shoes, I'd be wargaming ditching the US and negotiating some sort of protectorate deal with China. Probably thinking very hard about trying to be grandfathered in as some sort of neutral Switzerland. War is still just as horrific as it ever was and being at war with the world's most industrial superpower is a very bad plan A.
- philistine 4y ago
  Are you Taiwanese? You sound like a Star Wars imperialist making decisions for a local planet in their stead.
  - roenxi 4y ago
    No, I'm Australian. What do you think the best path forward is for the Taiwanese?
    - kortilla 4y ago
      Independence
      - roenxi 4y ago
        That isn't really a path, that is a destination - how do you want them to keep their independence? Because if the plan is to sit on China's border as a staunch, militarily aligned US ally that is a plan with some very obvious risks - especially in light of what happened to Ukraine. In fact, the only way that ends well for Taiwan is if China experiences some sort of collapse. Possible, but not really a good strategy.
    - philistine 4y ago
      Whatever the Taiwanese decide themselves.
  - culi 4y ago
    I agree we should be supporting whatever it is the actual people of these countries want. Online discourses about what other countries should do drive me nuts If we had let the people decide in Ukraine, we probably wouldn't be at war now. Zelenskyy ran on and was largely elected because of a platform of making peace. And he kept his word once elected and negotiated a peace deal with Putin. It was the US and NATO that stepped in to break that apart when it was just about to be signed. The people of Ukraine clearly supported peace and we should have respected the people's will

HyperSane 4y ago

"America's hegemony is on its last legs" On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are. "Taiwan will avoid the faith of becoming another Ukraine." By just rolling over for China? Overall you seem pretty pro-CCP.

tw1984 4y ago
> On the contrary, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened America's hegemony massively by showing the world how weak Russia is and how good the US's military and intelligence are. Just checked my calendar again, it is 2022, not 1992. The US has a single challenger in this entire world, it is China. How strong/weak is Russia is irrelevant.
- HyperSane 4y ago
  Russia likes to think it was a challenger to the US, and the US thought it was also until now. It took Russia's abysmal showing in the Ukraine invasion to show the world just how irrelevant Russia really is.

gsatic 4y ago

Oh I see and the reason their military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what? Worried about the Mongols?

tw1984 4y ago
Same question, why the US has to spend 800 billion $ a year? worried about an invasion by Mexico? That military budget got criticized by many Chinese. With a comparable GDP to the US, the CCP constantly refuses to further increase its military spending. As a result of such policy failure, its defense budget is just about 20% of the US one.
- gsatic 4y ago
  The question stands, irrespective of what legacy or current dysfunction the US is suffering from. And Taiwan Invasion is the logical answer. There is really no other reason. Just look at US struggling to even raise a single Division of troops in Europe to support Ukraine. If they cant do it in Europe, there is no way they are a serious threat as far away as Taiwan.
dirtyid 4y ago
> military budget is greater than the sum total of all their neighbors is because of what Because PRC has greater population and GDP than rest of region combined, of which she spends less than 2% on defense, less than most of her neighbours, less than what America wants NATO allies to spend on, and now less than JPs revised budget. All in all, too modest.

eloisius 4y ago

KMT simply have a better ground game when it comes to local elections. After 40 years of single-party rule, they are still the Good Ol’ Boys of local politics. People care more about DPP’s policies nationally. The electorate still overwhelmingly reject unification.

helsinkiandrew 4y ago

That's complete nonsense, every poll over the past 30 years has shown a constantly increasing number of Taiwanese don't want to be part of China. China's behaviour in Hong Kong will only likely strengthen that view. See the chart here: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-...

culi 4y ago
You should look at the source for that chart. Not sure why grid.news decided to do this, but the original chart[0] actually has 7 categories. grid.news left some of those out and (combined?) some others? Anyways I think the full data tells a pretty different story... There does seem to be recent (~2018) in support for independence. But the interesting thing is there was actually a shift towards more support for unification right before that. It's also probably important to take into account the methodology[1] and the low sample sizes corresponding with the largest shifts [0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 [1]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%81%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB%E6%85%8B%E5%BA%A6%E5%88%86%E4%BD%88%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96%E8%B3%87%E6%96%99%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95%E8%AA%AA%E6%98%8E(methodology)202206.pdf https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6965/%E9%87%8D%E8%A6%8...
- helsinkiandrew 4y ago
  The original chart https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202206.jpg https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202206.jpg shows even more the movement away from unification with China. The lack of support for "Full Independence" rather than the Status Quo of effective independence they have now is usually explained by people not choosing a policy that provokes China into attack.
  - throwoutway 4y ago
    That’s exactly it. There’s interviews with the the president saying effectively that. A reporter tried to get her to say it on record, and she effectively said there’s no need. They de facto independence. No need to provoke an attack

chaostheory 4y ago

If it was true that this still was the CCP’s main strategy for Taiwan, it would have been a relief. This was the policy before Xi’s ascension. Unfortunately, Xi isn’t very bright or as patient as his predecessors.