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> What has changed really, though? Macro: We had exceptionally low interest rates creating a debt bubble coupled with unprecedented Fed printing. To put it int
by beambot 4y ago
> What has changed really, though?
Macro: We had exceptionally low interest rates creating a debt bubble coupled with unprecedented Fed printing. To put it into perspective: we printed $6-Trillion USD on COVID stimulus compared to FDR's New Deal at $1-Trillion USD (today dollars).
Micro: Bubble popping. Public price-to-sales ratios fell substantially. Declines in consumer spending, inflation, and supply chain hiccups compressed margin. Lending rates went up, liquidity went down, and commercial realestate is still bracing for impact. Late-stage mega funds slowed their investing in the face of redemption threats. IPOs and SPACs became unpalatable. So early stage funds sitting on loads of cash raised pre-2022 are waiting on the sidelines to see where it falls out & who emerges.
- cipheredStones 4y ago> To put it into perspective: we printed $6-Trillion USD on COVID stimulus compared to FDR's New Deal at $1-Trillion USD (today dollars). Worth noting that inflation-adjusted GDP was $1T in 1930 and $19T in 2019.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- beambot 4y ago1930 GDP was (at the time) $100B with NewDeal actual expenditure of $42B (42%), compared with 2019 $19T GDP and $6T COVID (~30%). There's this weird historical effect represented by "Real GDP" that has the 1930s number being 10x that size (whatever that means): https://www.statista.com/statistics/1031678/gdp-and-real-gdp-united-states-1930-2019/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1031678/gdp-and-real-gdp...