3 ms·

10 meters? Are you serious? The current WORST case scenarios as modeled by the IPCC would put us on track for about 1 meter of rise by 2100 and <4 meters of ris

by jjcon 4y ago

10 meters? Are you serious? The current WORST case scenarios as modeled by the IPCC would put us on track for about 1 meter of rise by 2100 and <4 meters of rise by 2300 (with confidence interval going as high as 5), 280 years from now. Models aren’t accounting for 10 meters because nobody with credentials is forecasting 10 meters of rise even in worst case scenarios. This model in question here is only concerned with the upcoming 100 years, and we 100% will not be seeing even multi-meter rises by then let alone 10. > By 2300, seas could stand as much as 5 meters higher under the worst-case scenario. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating...

RC_ITR 4y ago
Have you heard of “storm surges”? I didn’t say NYC would be flooded, I said it would have significantly more sandy-like events (where the storm surge was already 3-4m in battery park city).[1] And I don’t know how much you know about tides given your above comment, but starting out a meter higher usually has nonlinear effects on how far inland waves can travel. [1] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/10/supplemental/page-7/ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/10/supplemental...
- jjcon 4y ago
  10 meters is still way too much - have another look at your own source - we’re talking an extra meter at best over typical highs - again nowhere near 10m even with the worst case meter of rise in the next 100 years.
  - RC_ITR 4y ago
    Again, 1m rising sea level != 1 meter higher storm surges (don't even get me started on the oceans being a bigger heat well and causing larger storms). Don't forget Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane whose eye made landfall in Southern New Jersey. It was by no means a worst case scenario. You can minimize climate change all you want, but maybe do some research first?

by jjcon 4y ago

RC_ITR 4y ago

Have you heard of “storm surges”? I didn’t say NYC would be flooded, I said it would have significantly more sandy-like events (where the storm surge was already 3-4m in battery park city).[1] And I don’t know how much you know about tides given your above comment, but starting out a meter higher usually has nonlinear effects on how far inland waves can travel. [1] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/10/supplemental/page-7/ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/10/supplemental...

jjcon 4y ago
10 meters is still way too much - have another look at your own source - we’re talking an extra meter at best over typical highs - again nowhere near 10m even with the worst case meter of rise in the next 100 years.
- RC_ITR 4y ago
  Again, 1m rising sea level != 1 meter higher storm surges (don't even get me started on the oceans being a bigger heat well and causing larger storms). Don't forget Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane whose eye made landfall in Southern New Jersey. It was by no means a worst case scenario. You can minimize climate change all you want, but maybe do some research first?