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https://time.com/6170735/how-many-people-have-had-covid-19/ https://time.com/6170735/how-many-people-have-had-covid-19/ It's 60%. Probably. Meanwhile most va

https://time.com/6170735/how-many-people-have-had-covid-19/ https://time.com/6170735/how-many-people-have-had-covid-19/ It's 60%. Probably. Meanwhile most vaccinated people have had 2-4 shots. Also keep in mind immunity doesn't last forever, so you need to balance the risk of the shot within a certain timeframe versus the risk of Covid times the risk of complications within the same timeframe. You also can't compare the lifetime risk of Covid versus only 1 shot, both occur within a timeframe since immunity from the shot isn't forever.

CorrectHorseBat 4y ago
60% of the population over a 5 month period had detectable levels of antibodies in their blood, so it's at least 60%. IIRC they are only detectable for a few months (but that maybe also depend on the way of testing I don't know) which would means it's closer to 100% than to 60%. The risk comparison is indeed not trivial, but I think it's a safe bet that you're going to get covid.
- Izkata 4y ago
  > but that maybe also depend on the way of testing I don't know There's ~3 possibilities after an infection happens: * A person's innate immune system quickly fights off the virus. This is a generic set of defenses in our bodies that are always active, and if they succeed then you don't create antibodies in the first place. * Detectable antibodies, meaning your innate immune system wasn't enough and your adaptive immune system took care of it. * Antibodies have faded and are no longer detectable. You can still do a T-Cell test (more costly, may take longer?) to find out if you can rapidly create new antibodies, which would mean you're still good despite no longer having antibodies. There's also the issue of the type of antibodies. The mRNA vaccines are only coding for the spike protein, so your body only learns to fight that - but the virus has mutated away from what's currently in the vaccines. Natural/recovered immunity creates a variety of antibodies that work against different parts of the virus, so that's still effective even against "vaccine escape" variants.

CorrectHorseBat 4y ago

60% of the population over a 5 month period had detectable levels of antibodies in their blood, so it's at least 60%. IIRC they are only detectable for a few months (but that maybe also depend on the way of testing I don't know) which would means it's closer to 100% than to 60%. The risk comparison is indeed not trivial, but I think it's a safe bet that you're going to get covid.

Izkata 4y ago
> but that maybe also depend on the way of testing I don't know There's ~3 possibilities after an infection happens: * A person's innate immune system quickly fights off the virus. This is a generic set of defenses in our bodies that are always active, and if they succeed then you don't create antibodies in the first place. * Detectable antibodies, meaning your innate immune system wasn't enough and your adaptive immune system took care of it. * Antibodies have faded and are no longer detectable. You can still do a T-Cell test (more costly, may take longer?) to find out if you can rapidly create new antibodies, which would mean you're still good despite no longer having antibodies. There's also the issue of the type of antibodies. The mRNA vaccines are only coding for the spike protein, so your body only learns to fight that - but the virus has mutated away from what's currently in the vaccines. Natural/recovered immunity creates a variety of antibodies that work against different parts of the virus, so that's still effective even against "vaccine escape" variants.