3 ms·

I'm not aware of any evidence of this, actually. Can you point to some?

photochemsyn 4y ago
Search Google Scholar for "committed warming" for a quick intro. For example: > "We have asked the illustrative but specific question of should atmospheric greenhouse gases suddenly stop increasing, what additional global warming will occur based on current understanding? Such a constant composition commitment is less ambitious than the recent aspiration of many to achieve “net-zero” global emissions of GHGs. Net-zero has been generally defined as not including natural sinks and is only achieved when anthropogenic CO2 emissions are balanced globally by anthropogenic removals. " (2020) "CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming" Read the paper at sci-hub, check the references for more. https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5 https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5 As this paper notes, > "...there is often a misunderstanding in society, corresponding to a belief that achieving constant atmospheric GHG composition implies that global mean temperatures will not change from that point forward." Note also that these models are generally not including the non-anthropogenic feedback process, such as permafrost melt and carbon release, and the relatively uncertain but potentially very large effects of methane release from shallow marine sediments due to warming polar oceans.
egberts1 4y ago
Not evidence of OP's trend but authoritative data on Ice Shelf Index by GSFC at NASA. https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-...
egberts1 4y ago
Dr. Claire Parkinson, eminent NASA ice shelf expert, creator of mapping ice shelf by satellite since 1970s. Still claims that ice shelf extents are within historical norms. https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/claire.l.parkinson https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/claire.l.parkinson

Search Google Scholar for "committed warming" for a quick intro. For example: > "We have asked the illustrative but specific question of should atmospheric greenhouse gases suddenly stop increasing, what additional global warming will occur based on current understanding? Such a constant composition commitment is less ambitious than the recent aspiration of many to achieve “net-zero” global emissions of GHGs. Net-zero has been generally defined as not including natural sinks and is only achieved when anthropogenic CO2 emissions are balanced globally by anthropogenic removals. " (2020) "CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming" Read the paper at sci-hub, check the references for more. https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5 https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5 As this paper notes, > "...there is often a misunderstanding in society, corresponding to a belief that achieving constant atmospheric GHG composition implies that global mean temperatures will not change from that point forward." Note also that these models are generally not including the non-anthropogenic feedback process, such as permafrost melt and carbon release, and the relatively uncertain but potentially very large effects of methane release from shallow marine sediments due to warming polar oceans.

egberts1 4y ago

Not evidence of OP's trend but authoritative data on Ice Shelf Index by GSFC at NASA. https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-...

egberts1 4y ago

Dr. Claire Parkinson, eminent NASA ice shelf expert, creator of mapping ice shelf by satellite since 1970s. Still claims that ice shelf extents are within historical norms. https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/claire.l.parkinson https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/claire.l.parkinson