7 ms·

What is your source on the explosion in crime? [This](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does

What is your source on the explosion in crime? [This](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does-the-data-say/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-cri...) suggests otherwise based on data from the US Bureau of Justice Statistics. Violent crime and robbery have steadily declined for decades now. Perhaps what has exploded is the number of people claiming crime has exploded despite pretty solid evidence to the contrary.

andrew_ 4y ago
Here's an example reference from September this year that provides more nuance beyond an obtuse rebuttal: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/11/united-states-major-cities-violent-crime-homicides-survey/8060734001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/11/united... As with all things, perception based on locale is crucial in understanding others when they speak about crime they've either witnessed or perceive as being a problem. Is human feces on public walkways a problem for everyone? It's not in Tampa, but it might be for someone in San Fransisco [1] so to dismiss it with national data on the distinct lack of poop on sidewalks is rather obtuse, lacks and ignores nuance. [1] https://wmmr.com/2019/04/17/someone-made-an-interactive-san-francisco-poop-map/ https://wmmr.com/2019/04/17/someone-made-an-interactive-san-...
- nucleogenesis 4y ago
  I get that - but note that I was responding to someone claiming that crime is “exploding” in a pretty general sense, which it just isn’t. If someone is being materially impacted by some crime local to them then it’s not unreasonable to advocate for change to mitigate it. I’d suggest that mitigating crimes like people pooping on sidewalks (or whatever) would better be done through means other than overt video surveillance (to take it back to the OP a bit) and rather that maybe overall things might improve through policies designed to ameliorate the societal conditions that lead to people being in a situation where they end up pooping in the sidewalk (or whatever) in the first place.
- chaps 4y ago
  "The survey of 70 responding law enforcement agencies compared crime statistics from the first half of 2021 to the same period in 2022, a time when the COVID-19 crisis had waned, lessening the factors that contributed to violent crime rising nationally in 2020 for the first time in four years." Take this reporting with a very small grain of salt. For one, it's a survey which admits in the footnotes that it's built on preliminary data. They're comparing preliminary data of 2022 with non-preliminary data from 2021. It's also coming from self-reporting, where MCCA is a politically charged organization with non-independent motivations, considering it's an organization of police chiefs. Consider that a lot of the police agencies in the MCCA survey have failed to to submit statistics to the FBI [1]. That's back from 2021, but I just had a look at its Q3 2022 data and it's missing Chicago and New York city [2]! It's hard to trust any sort of survey like what came out of MCCA when its largest members consistently fail to report crime statistics data. And.. police aren't exactly good with data analysis [3] [1] https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-data-say-about-crime-in-2021-it-s-too-unreliable-to-tell https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-d... [2] https://s3-us-gov-west-1.amazonaws.com/cg-d4b776d0-d898-4153-90c8-8336f86bdfec/2022_Quarter_3-Jan-Sept_11-14-2022.zip https://s3-us-gov-west-1.amazonaws.com/cg-d4b776d0-d898-4153... [3] https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more-people-for-protesting-than-for-looting-in-early-days-of-unrest-contradicting-original-claims/ https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more...
n8cpdx 4y ago
As Andrew said, it depends on the community. Portland is has been setting records for violence, getting pretty close to a reversion to the 90s. NYC is reverting to mid-2000s levels of crime. All the west coast cities are seeing major public disorder issues. Organized retail crime is also a big issue now. Linked statistics only show violent crime; property crime is a different phenomenon but similarly problematic for feelings of safety. Stores near me and including in the building I live in have closed due to theft and ongoing vandalism. https://www.koin.com/news/crime/portlands-homicide-rate-nearly-double-other-west-coast-cities/ https://www.koin.com/news/crime/portlands-homicide-rate-near... https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2022/09/23/homicides-seattle-rise-major-cities https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2022/09/23/homicides-sea... https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/24/why-its-hard-to-buy-deodorant-in-manhattan https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/24/why-its-h... Crime is a myth/crime has been going down everywhere since the 90s is a very 2019 take that needs to be updated for the new reality, at least in big cities.

andrew_ 4y ago

Here's an example reference from September this year that provides more nuance beyond an obtuse rebuttal: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/11/united-states-major-cities-violent-crime-homicides-survey/8060734001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/11/united... As with all things, perception based on locale is crucial in understanding others when they speak about crime they've either witnessed or perceive as being a problem. Is human feces on public walkways a problem for everyone? It's not in Tampa, but it might be for someone in San Fransisco [1] so to dismiss it with national data on the distinct lack of poop on sidewalks is rather obtuse, lacks and ignores nuance. [1] https://wmmr.com/2019/04/17/someone-made-an-interactive-san-francisco-poop-map/ https://wmmr.com/2019/04/17/someone-made-an-interactive-san-...

nucleogenesis 4y ago
I get that - but note that I was responding to someone claiming that crime is “exploding” in a pretty general sense, which it just isn’t. If someone is being materially impacted by some crime local to them then it’s not unreasonable to advocate for change to mitigate it. I’d suggest that mitigating crimes like people pooping on sidewalks (or whatever) would better be done through means other than overt video surveillance (to take it back to the OP a bit) and rather that maybe overall things might improve through policies designed to ameliorate the societal conditions that lead to people being in a situation where they end up pooping in the sidewalk (or whatever) in the first place.
chaps 4y ago
"The survey of 70 responding law enforcement agencies compared crime statistics from the first half of 2021 to the same period in 2022, a time when the COVID-19 crisis had waned, lessening the factors that contributed to violent crime rising nationally in 2020 for the first time in four years." Take this reporting with a very small grain of salt. For one, it's a survey which admits in the footnotes that it's built on preliminary data. They're comparing preliminary data of 2022 with non-preliminary data from 2021. It's also coming from self-reporting, where MCCA is a politically charged organization with non-independent motivations, considering it's an organization of police chiefs. Consider that a lot of the police agencies in the MCCA survey have failed to to submit statistics to the FBI [1]. That's back from 2021, but I just had a look at its Q3 2022 data and it's missing Chicago and New York city [2]! It's hard to trust any sort of survey like what came out of MCCA when its largest members consistently fail to report crime statistics data. And.. police aren't exactly good with data analysis [3] [1] https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-data-say-about-crime-in-2021-it-s-too-unreliable-to-tell https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-d... [2] https://s3-us-gov-west-1.amazonaws.com/cg-d4b776d0-d898-4153-90c8-8336f86bdfec/2022_Quarter_3-Jan-Sept_11-14-2022.zip https://s3-us-gov-west-1.amazonaws.com/cg-d4b776d0-d898-4153... [3] https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more-people-for-protesting-than-for-looting-in-early-days-of-unrest-contradicting-original-claims/ https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more...

n8cpdx 4y ago

As Andrew said, it depends on the community. Portland is has been setting records for violence, getting pretty close to a reversion to the 90s. NYC is reverting to mid-2000s levels of crime. All the west coast cities are seeing major public disorder issues. Organized retail crime is also a big issue now. Linked statistics only show violent crime; property crime is a different phenomenon but similarly problematic for feelings of safety. Stores near me and including in the building I live in have closed due to theft and ongoing vandalism. https://www.koin.com/news/crime/portlands-homicide-rate-nearly-double-other-west-coast-cities/ https://www.koin.com/news/crime/portlands-homicide-rate-near... https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2022/09/23/homicides-seattle-rise-major-cities https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2022/09/23/homicides-sea... https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/24/why-its-hard-to-buy-deodorant-in-manhattan https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/24/why-its-h... Crime is a myth/crime has been going down everywhere since the 90s is a very 2019 take that needs to be updated for the new reality, at least in big cities.