3 ms·

I think people underestimate how much faster things can develop given prioritization. NYT famously said a COVID vaccine would take several years to develop norm

I think people underestimate how much faster things can develop given prioritization. NYT famously said a COVID vaccine would take several years to develop normally, and 18 months in the best case scenario. It took 50% less than that, even: just under a year. With the floodgates open, you can't apply old priors. If there's a burst of funding from the US and EU, we could see this change rapidly.

bamboozled 4y ago
I know but people enjoy being skeptical, for good reason, but it’s hard to know where to draw the line.
pfdietz 4y ago
They are actually behind schedule reaching this stage with NIF. The problem turned out to be harder than their simulations suggested. And going to a commercially viable power plant? Very dubious, for multiple reasons.
BuckRogers 4y ago
Shortcuts were taken in that case. It was effectively tested live, offered protection measured in months, and did not prevent transmission as none of them were sterilizing vaccines. Most people are implicitly acknowledging all of this by avoiding boosters. When I choose my medical options, my standards are not only implied here but I also look for 20 year studies on top. In sum, I’m not sure a burst of funding incentivizes the behavior we need, most of the time. Perhaps when no one stands to immediately profit from the situation. In that case, this fusion breakthrough being one step in a long journey secures these advancements as not being reckless endeavors towards unbelievable profits.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  Oh, and the vaccines and boosters saved 3+ M lives in the US. People who are avoiding boosters are mostly being really stupid.
  - BuckRogers 4y ago
    Who is talking? Less than 4% of adults in the US have gotten updated boosters. So you would be basically talking about everyone except for yourself. I think it’s more likely that all of those people intuitively have picked up some thing that you have missed.
    - pfdietz 4y ago
      The evidence supports me on this. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm715152e1.htm?s_cid=mm715152e1_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm715152e1.htm?s_cid=...
      - BuckRogers 4y ago
        I'm not sure what claim you're insisting this is supporting. The summary from your link is clear and seems to contradict your earlier point about boosters being a no-brainer. Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster doses containing an Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineage component were recommended on September 1, 2022. The effectiveness of these updated vaccines against COVID-19–associated medical encounters has not been established.

bamboozled 4y ago

I know but people enjoy being skeptical, for good reason, but it’s hard to know where to draw the line.

pfdietz 4y ago

They are actually behind schedule reaching this stage with NIF. The problem turned out to be harder than their simulations suggested. And going to a commercially viable power plant? Very dubious, for multiple reasons.

BuckRogers 4y ago

Shortcuts were taken in that case. It was effectively tested live, offered protection measured in months, and did not prevent transmission as none of them were sterilizing vaccines. Most people are implicitly acknowledging all of this by avoiding boosters. When I choose my medical options, my standards are not only implied here but I also look for 20 year studies on top. In sum, I’m not sure a burst of funding incentivizes the behavior we need, most of the time. Perhaps when no one stands to immediately profit from the situation. In that case, this fusion breakthrough being one step in a long journey secures these advancements as not being reckless endeavors towards unbelievable profits.

pfdietz 4y ago
Oh, and the vaccines and boosters saved 3+ M lives in the US. People who are avoiding boosters are mostly being really stupid.
- BuckRogers 4y ago
  Who is talking? Less than 4% of adults in the US have gotten updated boosters. So you would be basically talking about everyone except for yourself. I think it’s more likely that all of those people intuitively have picked up some thing that you have missed.
  - pfdietz 4y ago
    The evidence supports me on this. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm715152e1.htm?s_cid=mm715152e1_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm715152e1.htm?s_cid=...
    - BuckRogers 4y ago
      I'm not sure what claim you're insisting this is supporting. The summary from your link is clear and seems to contradict your earlier point about boosters being a no-brainer. Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster doses containing an Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineage component were recommended on September 1, 2022. The effectiveness of these updated vaccines against COVID-19–associated medical encounters has not been established.