The point is indeed simple: you don't know. In the period when you don't know something, the rational thing is to wait until you do. Everything else is speculat

The point is indeed simple: you don't know. In the period when you don't know something, the rational thing is to wait until you do. Everything else is speculation. You're free to speculate as much as you want, but it's just guess work. The only thing I objected to is to turn guess work into confident conclusions, and presenting them as fact.