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Waymo has proven driverless operations in Chandler, then Downtown Phoenix, then San Francisco. Truly driverless, no people in car. They’ve demonstrated driverle

Waymo has proven driverless operations in Chandler, then Downtown Phoenix, then San Francisco. Truly driverless, no people in car. They’ve demonstrated driverless capability and the ability to expand to new regions, even if it means taking HD maps. Tesla has not proven any reliable driverless operation, anywhere. They have removed hardware from their cars (radar, uss) and have not shown any meaningful progress in the past ~5 years nor any willingness to change from their “vision only, big data” strategy. If things continue on the current trajectory Waymo will likely be operating in all major US cities and metros in a few years while Tesla’s self driving offering will probably be forcibly renamed by regulation and end in a class action lawsuit. Basically, Waymo has proven N and N+1 capability, meanwhile Tesla has yet to prove N, and has lied to consumers and actually reduced their chances at achieving N due to cost cutting measures.

guilamu 4y ago
"ot shown any meaningful progress in the past ~5 years nor any willingness to change from their “vision only, big data” strategy." I guess they did now that they can make their own cheap lidars and adding them back in 2023.
- daveguy 4y ago
  Reversing the "cameras only" position is a step in the right direction. They are currently ~3 years behind collecting lidar data compared to Cruise / Waymo. I wonder if they'll be able to make it up with "ghost-rider" volume in 2023.
- RankingMember 4y ago
  ? Where are you seeing that they're adding lidar? The big news recently was that they're going to bring back radar.
vel0city 4y ago
> nor any willingness to change from their “vision only, big data” strategy. It sounds like they might actually be including a new radar system in January. Nothing official yet though from what I've seen. https://electrek.co/2022/12/06/tesla-radar-car-next-month-self-driving-suite-concerns/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/06/tesla-radar-car-next-month-se...
simondotau 4y ago
> and have not shown any meaningful progress in the past ~5 years Really? I’ve had some casual interest in the progress of FSD beta and the past six months alone has seen dramatic improvements to numerous adversarial situations. FSD beta is currently able to drive with confidence on unmarked roads at night in the rain, with only basic maps for wayfinding. This has been demonstrated by customers in their own cars, driving roads which haven’t been vetted by the developers. I’m sure Waymo and other systems can do this too, but I haven’t seen it demonstrated.
panick21_ 4y ago
> Waymo has proven driverless operations in Chandler, then Downtown Phoenix, then San Francisco. And how many years did that take. Are they adding profitable operations in new cities year after year, with every year adding new cities? As far as I can see they simply lose billion and billions of $ for no real success in actually having a product. Tesla is actually using the technology to improve its Level 2 systems and make money with it. > meanwhile Tesla has yet to prove N First of all, Waymo has not proven N, because they don't make money on any of these things. Tesla at least try to drive in N+10000000 other cases and navigate many of them without seeing them first. If you have to go one by one threw every single city in the world its not clear to me that this is a better approach then solving a more general problem. > reduced their chances at achieving N due to cost cutting measures Tesla just made 3 billion $ of profit in a quarter. What cost cutting? They are currently doing major investments in upgraded sensors suits, upgraded data-centers and overall their team is still growing. How much did Waymo make again?
- dinobones 4y ago
  Just because Tesla is profitable and making money by selling vehicles does not mean they are on a better path to engineering a self driving system than Waymo. The opposite is also true, just because Waymo does not make money does not reflect the capability of their self driving systems. Saying "Waymo has not proven N, because they don't make money on any of these things." doesn't make any sense, and is not even true. I can go to downtown Phoenix right now and request (and pay for) a fully self-driving ride from point A to point B. Teslas can not reliably complete any self driving route without any disengagements. We are discussing who is closer to realizing a fully self-driving system, not who runs a better business.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    > Just because Tesla is profitable and making money by selling vehicles does not mean they are on a better path to engineering a self driving system than Waymo. That not what I said, what it means it has more staying power. > doesn't make any sense, and is not even true What data are you basing this on? Are any of their operations profitable? If they are, why are they not expanding those operations to make more profit? > I can go to downtown Phoenix right now and request (and pay for) a fully self-driving ride from point A to point B. Teslas can not reliably complete any self driving route without any disengagements. Yeah, but Tesla didn't spend 7 years only focusing on Phoenix, so using that as a comparison is just dishonest. You are stacking the field in favor of what you want the winner to be. Here is my proposal for a more fair test on who is actually 'winning' self driving: "You take a car, and put it on any random road anywhere in the world, how well can it navigate to any other random road in the world" How well does Waymo do on that test? I would guess worse then Tesla. That test is much closer to what it actually takes to really claim that self driving is 'solved'. In my opinion neither are close to this and both will burn many more billions and many more years before getting there. So to just confidently claim Waymo is way ahead is nonsense in my opinion.

guilamu 4y ago

"ot shown any meaningful progress in the past ~5 years nor any willingness to change from their “vision only, big data” strategy." I guess they did now that they can make their own cheap lidars and adding them back in 2023.

daveguy 4y ago
Reversing the "cameras only" position is a step in the right direction. They are currently ~3 years behind collecting lidar data compared to Cruise / Waymo. I wonder if they'll be able to make it up with "ghost-rider" volume in 2023.
RankingMember 4y ago
? Where are you seeing that they're adding lidar? The big news recently was that they're going to bring back radar.

vel0city 4y ago

> nor any willingness to change from their “vision only, big data” strategy. It sounds like they might actually be including a new radar system in January. Nothing official yet though from what I've seen. https://electrek.co/2022/12/06/tesla-radar-car-next-month-self-driving-suite-concerns/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/06/tesla-radar-car-next-month-se...

simondotau 4y ago

> and have not shown any meaningful progress in the past ~5 years Really? I’ve had some casual interest in the progress of FSD beta and the past six months alone has seen dramatic improvements to numerous adversarial situations. FSD beta is currently able to drive with confidence on unmarked roads at night in the rain, with only basic maps for wayfinding. This has been demonstrated by customers in their own cars, driving roads which haven’t been vetted by the developers. I’m sure Waymo and other systems can do this too, but I haven’t seen it demonstrated.

panick21_ 4y ago

> Waymo has proven driverless operations in Chandler, then Downtown Phoenix, then San Francisco. And how many years did that take. Are they adding profitable operations in new cities year after year, with every year adding new cities? As far as I can see they simply lose billion and billions of $ for no real success in actually having a product. Tesla is actually using the technology to improve its Level 2 systems and make money with it. > meanwhile Tesla has yet to prove N First of all, Waymo has not proven N, because they don't make money on any of these things. Tesla at least try to drive in N+10000000 other cases and navigate many of them without seeing them first. If you have to go one by one threw every single city in the world its not clear to me that this is a better approach then solving a more general problem. > reduced their chances at achieving N due to cost cutting measures Tesla just made 3 billion $ of profit in a quarter. What cost cutting? They are currently doing major investments in upgraded sensors suits, upgraded data-centers and overall their team is still growing. How much did Waymo make again?

dinobones 4y ago
Just because Tesla is profitable and making money by selling vehicles does not mean they are on a better path to engineering a self driving system than Waymo. The opposite is also true, just because Waymo does not make money does not reflect the capability of their self driving systems. Saying "Waymo has not proven N, because they don't make money on any of these things." doesn't make any sense, and is not even true. I can go to downtown Phoenix right now and request (and pay for) a fully self-driving ride from point A to point B. Teslas can not reliably complete any self driving route without any disengagements. We are discussing who is closer to realizing a fully self-driving system, not who runs a better business.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  > Just because Tesla is profitable and making money by selling vehicles does not mean they are on a better path to engineering a self driving system than Waymo. That not what I said, what it means it has more staying power. > doesn't make any sense, and is not even true What data are you basing this on? Are any of their operations profitable? If they are, why are they not expanding those operations to make more profit? > I can go to downtown Phoenix right now and request (and pay for) a fully self-driving ride from point A to point B. Teslas can not reliably complete any self driving route without any disengagements. Yeah, but Tesla didn't spend 7 years only focusing on Phoenix, so using that as a comparison is just dishonest. You are stacking the field in favor of what you want the winner to be. Here is my proposal for a more fair test on who is actually 'winning' self driving: "You take a car, and put it on any random road anywhere in the world, how well can it navigate to any other random road in the world" How well does Waymo do on that test? I would guess worse then Tesla. That test is much closer to what it actually takes to really claim that self driving is 'solved'. In my opinion neither are close to this and both will burn many more billions and many more years before getting there. So to just confidently claim Waymo is way ahead is nonsense in my opinion.