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It's funny, 5 years ago everyone was wondering if they would ever actually deliver the Model 3. 10 years ago they were digging themselves out of the e-Lotus hol

It's funny, 5 years ago everyone was wondering if they would ever actually deliver the Model 3. 10 years ago they were digging themselves out of the e-Lotus hole. I'm not one to bet on volatile stocks, but if FSD ever becomes a thing, they're the only automaker actually capable of taking advantage of it. From a automotive market capitalisation perspective they're overpriced, but from a high growth tech focused company with their own manufacturing capabilities they really aren't. Toyota still doesn't have a 100% electric vehicle. VW still makes electric cars using chassis designed for ICEs. Meanwhile Tesla is on their Nth electric chassis/drive iteration. Yes, it's just engineering, but so was Apple vs BlackBerry. I think the correction in Tesla's prices are coming from increased interest rates and the risk inherent in growth stocks, not due to public sentiment about Musk, Twitter or anything else.

senko 4y ago
> If FSD ever becomes a thing, they're the only automaker actually capable of taking advantage of it. How does that follow? The other thread today talks about how catastrophically bad FSD is. Other carmakers have driver assistance tech that's as good or better (but they're not setting expectations sky high with "full self driving" moniker). > VW still makes electric cars using chassis designed for ICEs. Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel.
- _ea1k 4y ago
  > Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel. That isn't really the issue. The issue is that they tend not to use space as well as purpose built platforms. This leads to either compromising cargo capacity relative to a purpose built platform or the necessity to make it larger and less efficient. That isn't to say that they are bad cars. IMO, of the people building on ICE platforms, BMW is doing it best right now. The ix is a pretty good compromise all around. Charging is far from class leading, but range is excellent. I bet that is enough to make up for the slower charging for most people.
- snovv_crash 4y ago
  > Other carmakers have driver assistance tech that's as good or better Yes, but at what price point? I don't feel like splurging for an S-class just to get highway assist. > Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel. This level of dialogue isn't particularly constructive. There is a material difference in the experience of the end user with a purpose-designed product compared with a square peg jammed into a round hole. The two largest manufacturers by volume still have no effective answer to BEVs. Everyone agrees BEVs are the future, and Tesla is the market leader for BEVs despite what anybody thinks about their CEO. That is sufficient for their enormous valuation, since it seems nobody else has even bothered to roll out charger infrastructure, for example, even if they did design a competitive vehicle.
_ea1k 4y ago
Toyota does have one, the bz4x. Its not very good, but it exists and is being sold again now.
stephc_int13 4y ago
Not sure if Tesla is going to be the first to have FSD, from the information I can gather I don't see where their edge is. And about the car themselves, the factories are impressive and all, but what matters is the actual product, compared to others. Not sure if people care much about the chassis or anything related to the innards of the car, they care about the use and what they get from it.
padjo 4y ago
VW have been building on the electric first MEB platform for 2 years now.
thwayunion 4y ago
> Toyota still doesn't have a 100% electric vehicle. 1. They have the bZ4X. 2. Toyota also has whatever Subaru's E-SUV is, which is just a re-badged bZ4X. (For the rest of time, any Subaru vehicle that isn't an ICE will just be a Toyota vehicle re-badged and decorated for the granola-yuppie-cum-soccer-mom- demo). 3. Toyota's big bet on the plug-in hybrid space is also a smart market position for the next 10+ years. An absolutely MASSIVE percent of non-beater-car-driving Americans have: 3a. short enough commutes/daily trips that they don't need a huge battery to mostly avoid gas usage, as long as they can charge nightly 3b. access to nightly charging via a garage or driveway 3c. still need >500 miles of range often enough that a pure EV is a really expensive proposition for the foreseeable future. Plug-in hybrids are a great solution for that demo, and it's probably like 2/3rds of the TAM of Americans who will pay $40K+ for a new car (mostly suburbanites who their car on vacations)
- r00fus 4y ago
  Does Toyota even have a reasonably long range PHEV? The Chevy Volt with it's 53mi electric range was, what I had hoped, would be the harbinger of long electric range cars (say, 100mi electric + 500mi gas). Instead we have EVs that barely do 250mi range and PHEVs with minuscule electric ranges.
  - thwayunion 4y ago
    The 2023 Prius PHEV is 40 miles, which is pretty close to the Chevy Volt's 53. So, not really but better than the really tiny numbers of a few years ago. For me 40 miles is about the optimal amount of electric range -- I either go <20 miles a day or >400 miles a day. It's an interesting optimization regime, though, and very customer-specifc. 40 still seems low for the average US customer, I suspect. I expect there will be more e-range options in future model years.

senko 4y ago

> If FSD ever becomes a thing, they're the only automaker actually capable of taking advantage of it. How does that follow? The other thread today talks about how catastrophically bad FSD is. Other carmakers have driver assistance tech that's as good or better (but they're not setting expectations sky high with "full self driving" moniker). > VW still makes electric cars using chassis designed for ICEs. Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel.

_ea1k 4y ago
> Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel. That isn't really the issue. The issue is that they tend not to use space as well as purpose built platforms. This leads to either compromising cargo capacity relative to a purpose built platform or the necessity to make it larger and less efficient. That isn't to say that they are bad cars. IMO, of the people building on ICE platforms, BMW is doing it best right now. The ix is a pretty good compromise all around. Charging is far from class leading, but range is excellent. I bet that is enough to make up for the slower charging for most people.
snovv_crash 4y ago
> Other carmakers have driver assistance tech that's as good or better Yes, but at what price point? I don't feel like splurging for an S-class just to get highway assist. > Yeah, cars still have 4 wheels and a steering wheel. This level of dialogue isn't particularly constructive. There is a material difference in the experience of the end user with a purpose-designed product compared with a square peg jammed into a round hole. The two largest manufacturers by volume still have no effective answer to BEVs. Everyone agrees BEVs are the future, and Tesla is the market leader for BEVs despite what anybody thinks about their CEO. That is sufficient for their enormous valuation, since it seems nobody else has even bothered to roll out charger infrastructure, for example, even if they did design a competitive vehicle.

_ea1k 4y ago

Toyota does have one, the bz4x. Its not very good, but it exists and is being sold again now.

stephc_int13 4y ago

Not sure if Tesla is going to be the first to have FSD, from the information I can gather I don't see where their edge is. And about the car themselves, the factories are impressive and all, but what matters is the actual product, compared to others. Not sure if people care much about the chassis or anything related to the innards of the car, they care about the use and what they get from it.

padjo 4y ago

VW have been building on the electric first MEB platform for 2 years now.

thwayunion 4y ago

> Toyota still doesn't have a 100% electric vehicle. 1. They have the bZ4X. 2. Toyota also has whatever Subaru's E-SUV is, which is just a re-badged bZ4X. (For the rest of time, any Subaru vehicle that isn't an ICE will just be a Toyota vehicle re-badged and decorated for the granola-yuppie-cum-soccer-mom- demo). 3. Toyota's big bet on the plug-in hybrid space is also a smart market position for the next 10+ years. An absolutely MASSIVE percent of non-beater-car-driving Americans have: 3a. short enough commutes/daily trips that they don't need a huge battery to mostly avoid gas usage, as long as they can charge nightly 3b. access to nightly charging via a garage or driveway 3c. still need >500 miles of range often enough that a pure EV is a really expensive proposition for the foreseeable future. Plug-in hybrids are a great solution for that demo, and it's probably like 2/3rds of the TAM of Americans who will pay $40K+ for a new car (mostly suburbanites who their car on vacations)

r00fus 4y ago
Does Toyota even have a reasonably long range PHEV? The Chevy Volt with it's 53mi electric range was, what I had hoped, would be the harbinger of long electric range cars (say, 100mi electric + 500mi gas). Instead we have EVs that barely do 250mi range and PHEVs with minuscule electric ranges.
- thwayunion 4y ago
  The 2023 Prius PHEV is 40 miles, which is pretty close to the Chevy Volt's 53. So, not really but better than the really tiny numbers of a few years ago. For me 40 miles is about the optimal amount of electric range -- I either go <20 miles a day or >400 miles a day. It's an interesting optimization regime, though, and very customer-specifc. 40 still seems low for the average US customer, I suspect. I expect there will be more e-range options in future model years.