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Past 12 months has seen a hefty decrease in the value of $TSLA (~50%, it's 60% if you look at just 2022). I've read numerous reports about Tesla quality (fit /

Past 12 months has seen a hefty decrease in the value of $TSLA (~50%, it's 60% if you look at just 2022). I've read numerous reports about Tesla quality (fit / finish), the FSD is receiving horrid reviews, and that's not even bringing into the equation Musk and his antics. Can't say I'm surprised to see the stock taking a hit and hope it doesn't dissuade companies from continuing down the EV path.

bryanlarsen 4y ago
Tesla is massively profitable. The vagaries of the stock market are just a distraction, what matters is profits, and Tesla has lots of that. Other companies will want some of those sweet profits too.
- throwawaymanbot 4y ago
- loeg 4y ago
  It makes a lot of profit but it has an irrational P/E ratio well in excess of other automakers (49 for TSLA vs 11 for TM).
  - snovv_crash 4y ago
    How about if you factor in the last 10 years of marketshare trajectory and then extrapolate a little?
    - philjohn 4y ago
      Past performance is not an indictor of future performance. VW is on pace to outsell Tesla in a little over a year, they're just one competitor. I now see just as many Polestars and VW id's as Tesla's in the UK ... it's quite remarkable how much things have changed from Tesla being the only real game in town just a few short years ago.
- JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
  Musk doesn't exactly strike me as a guy who would not cook the books. Guy believes in manifestation and self-fulfilling prophecies, fake it till you make it type strategy. General Electric employed the same strategy too with all its financial engineering but at the end of the day you are still making turbines in the real world and with anything manufacturing you have razor thin margins. Of course we came to know about it only after
  - _hypx 4y ago
    Agreed.
- twawaaay 4y ago
  Share price reflects expectation of future profits and growth. When you buy a share you do not care about the profits in the past, you care that the company will generate profits and thus increase its value in the future. The only reason people care about past profitability is in how it can help you predict future profitability. This is also the reason why companies can be generating losses quarter after quarter and still be gaining value -- as long as there exists expectation of future growth and profit. And in case of Tesla a lot of this expectation of future profits and growth was based on charisma of its owner and on belief that he is the force behind Tesla's spectacular success. Starting one successful company is impressive but can be partly attributed to luck. Starting multiple hugely successful global multi-hundred billion dollar companies is not luck at all, especially when you spend a moment learning about Elon's work ethic and his tight grip over everything. Now, if you are an investor, it seems the owner lost its focus and made a bunch of questionable decisions. This puts a huge question mark on whether he will be as involved and as effective with Tesla in the future.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - kjksf 4y ago
    > in case of Tesla a lot of this expectation of future profits and growth was based on charisma of its owner Not even a little bit. Musk has a charisma of a bag of potatoes. What matters is that Tesla had 10 years of 50%+ revenue and unit growth, on average. They performed better than any of the FAANG companies. With Giga Berlin and Giga Texas ramping up, Cybertruck, refreshing Model 3 for lower cost of production, ramping 4680 battery production, lithium refinery in Texas, Inflation Reduction Act in US => the 50% growth the company is guiding for in the next several years seems to be in the bank.
    - twawaaay 4y ago
      What charisma is depends on the person. It is defined as ability to induce devotion in others and different people will get moved by different things. Charisma is not an absolute and objective measure. Some people will find Trump charismatic to them, some people will see him completely opposite. I personally find Warren Buffett very charismatic, some people will probably see him as an old and wrinkled guy who is boring them with stories they don't care about. As investors are generally mostly interested in money, ability to get shit done and generate profits reliably IS charisma.
- danuker 4y ago
  A Tesla share is $159.32, and its EPS for the last 12 months is $3.61 [1]. That means 2.3% per year. A Toyota share is $145.55, and its EPS for the same period is $16.82 [2]. That means 11.6% per year. [1] - https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/eps/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/eps/ [2] - https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/eps/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/eps/ If Tesla is massively profitable, Toyota is 5 times so.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Tesla's gross margin is 25%, Toyota's gross margin is 15%.
    - makestuff 4y ago
      Do they still make a large portion of profit from selling carbon credits though?
      - chroma 4y ago
        No. In their latest filing[1], automotive regulatory credits are around 1% of revenue. 1. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017022019867/tsla-20220930.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/0000...
        hef19898 4y ago
        Revenue =|= profits. Now, if you are interested, devide what ever that revenue was by Tesla's profits. Because those credits have a zero cost behind them. And those credits will go away with every EV those other brands build and sell.
        chroma 4y ago
        If you look at the SEC filing it's 8% of profits. Though Tesla isn't trying to be particularly profitable right now. They've been spending tons of money on new factories so they can scale up production.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
sakopov 4y ago
Tesla's build quality never seemed to impact stock performance. I think Elon's takeover of Twitter has definitely been a big hit on Tesla stock. The main concern being his focus on all things Tesla, which appears to be shifting to Twitter.
- MildlySerious 4y ago
  > Tesla's build quality never seemed to impact stock performance. Tesla for a long time had a lack of serious competition, and a popular hype man at the helm that kept investor's eyes pointed at the future, by making promises such as "Fully self driving in 12-18 months" for a decade plus. With the age of pop culture hype taking a turn for Musk and Tesla, competition starting to look quite attractive, and the whole sector becoming more mature, attention is beginning to flow back to boring things like build quality.
  - snovv_crash 4y ago
    Which electric car can I buy that has similar range, similar charger infrastructure and is priced at a similar point to eg. Model 3? Genuinely curious, last time I checked everything non-Tesla was severely compromised somewhere.
    - ok_dad 4y ago
      Why do I care about those things if all I do is drive to town and back and I charge at home? Not everyone is a jet setting Bay Area resident who also drives to wine country every weekend. I would prefer a reliable Toyota over the quality issues plaguing Tesla, plus the poor working conditions at the factory put me off of ever buying a Tesla, for ethical reasons. I don’t care if the model 3 is gold plated and cheap, the company and product quality sucks.
      - martyvis 4y ago
        Maybe Tesla has quality issues, but what car market doesn't (at least their wheels don't fall off - and I love Subaru). Have you actually looked whether the other manufacturers don't have issues with working conditions?
porphyra 4y ago
The Model Y build quality is really good nowadays. And Tesla cars have great performance and ace all the safety tests. So they are still good cars that are undeserving of all the hate.
zarkov99 4y ago
People who hate Elon musk, which includes almost all of media, have no qualms about lying about Tesla in order to hurt it/him. In fact they might think is the right thing to do, for the sake of, well whatever. If you are interested in the ground truth, check the videos by owners, talk to people who use FSD and best of all see if you can rent and drive a Tesla yourself. Its sad to say, but even in tech we swim in an ocean of ideologically driven BS and not all of us have realized it yet.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Tesla is massively profitable. The vagaries of the stock market are just a distraction, what matters is profits, and Tesla has lots of that. Other companies will want some of those sweet profits too.

throwawaymanbot 4y ago
loeg 4y ago
It makes a lot of profit but it has an irrational P/E ratio well in excess of other automakers (49 for TSLA vs 11 for TM).
- snovv_crash 4y ago
  How about if you factor in the last 10 years of marketshare trajectory and then extrapolate a little?
  - philjohn 4y ago
    Past performance is not an indictor of future performance. VW is on pace to outsell Tesla in a little over a year, they're just one competitor. I now see just as many Polestars and VW id's as Tesla's in the UK ... it's quite remarkable how much things have changed from Tesla being the only real game in town just a few short years ago.
JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
Musk doesn't exactly strike me as a guy who would not cook the books. Guy believes in manifestation and self-fulfilling prophecies, fake it till you make it type strategy. General Electric employed the same strategy too with all its financial engineering but at the end of the day you are still making turbines in the real world and with anything manufacturing you have razor thin margins. Of course we came to know about it only after
- _hypx 4y ago
  Agreed.
twawaaay 4y ago
Share price reflects expectation of future profits and growth. When you buy a share you do not care about the profits in the past, you care that the company will generate profits and thus increase its value in the future. The only reason people care about past profitability is in how it can help you predict future profitability. This is also the reason why companies can be generating losses quarter after quarter and still be gaining value -- as long as there exists expectation of future growth and profit. And in case of Tesla a lot of this expectation of future profits and growth was based on charisma of its owner and on belief that he is the force behind Tesla's spectacular success. Starting one successful company is impressive but can be partly attributed to luck. Starting multiple hugely successful global multi-hundred billion dollar companies is not luck at all, especially when you spend a moment learning about Elon's work ethic and his tight grip over everything. Now, if you are an investor, it seems the owner lost its focus and made a bunch of questionable decisions. This puts a huge question mark on whether he will be as involved and as effective with Tesla in the future.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- kjksf 4y ago
  > in case of Tesla a lot of this expectation of future profits and growth was based on charisma of its owner Not even a little bit. Musk has a charisma of a bag of potatoes. What matters is that Tesla had 10 years of 50%+ revenue and unit growth, on average. They performed better than any of the FAANG companies. With Giga Berlin and Giga Texas ramping up, Cybertruck, refreshing Model 3 for lower cost of production, ramping 4680 battery production, lithium refinery in Texas, Inflation Reduction Act in US => the 50% growth the company is guiding for in the next several years seems to be in the bank.
  - twawaaay 4y ago
    What charisma is depends on the person. It is defined as ability to induce devotion in others and different people will get moved by different things. Charisma is not an absolute and objective measure. Some people will find Trump charismatic to them, some people will see him completely opposite. I personally find Warren Buffett very charismatic, some people will probably see him as an old and wrinkled guy who is boring them with stories they don't care about. As investors are generally mostly interested in money, ability to get shit done and generate profits reliably IS charisma.
danuker 4y ago
A Tesla share is $159.32, and its EPS for the last 12 months is $3.61 [1]. That means 2.3% per year. A Toyota share is $145.55, and its EPS for the same period is $16.82 [2]. That means 11.6% per year. [1] - https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/eps/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/eps/ [2] - https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/eps/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/toyota/eps/ If Tesla is massively profitable, Toyota is 5 times so.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Tesla's gross margin is 25%, Toyota's gross margin is 15%.
  - makestuff 4y ago
    Do they still make a large portion of profit from selling carbon credits though?
    - chroma 4y ago
      No. In their latest filing[1], automotive regulatory credits are around 1% of revenue. 1. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017022019867/tsla-20220930.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/0000...
      - hef19898 4y ago
        Revenue =|= profits. Now, if you are interested, devide what ever that revenue was by Tesla's profits. Because those credits have a zero cost behind them. And those credits will go away with every EV those other brands build and sell.
        chroma 4y ago
        If you look at the SEC filing it's 8% of profits. Though Tesla isn't trying to be particularly profitable right now. They've been spending tons of money on new factories so they can scale up production.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

sakopov 4y ago

Tesla's build quality never seemed to impact stock performance. I think Elon's takeover of Twitter has definitely been a big hit on Tesla stock. The main concern being his focus on all things Tesla, which appears to be shifting to Twitter.

MildlySerious 4y ago
> Tesla's build quality never seemed to impact stock performance. Tesla for a long time had a lack of serious competition, and a popular hype man at the helm that kept investor's eyes pointed at the future, by making promises such as "Fully self driving in 12-18 months" for a decade plus. With the age of pop culture hype taking a turn for Musk and Tesla, competition starting to look quite attractive, and the whole sector becoming more mature, attention is beginning to flow back to boring things like build quality.
- snovv_crash 4y ago
  Which electric car can I buy that has similar range, similar charger infrastructure and is priced at a similar point to eg. Model 3? Genuinely curious, last time I checked everything non-Tesla was severely compromised somewhere.
  - ok_dad 4y ago
    Why do I care about those things if all I do is drive to town and back and I charge at home? Not everyone is a jet setting Bay Area resident who also drives to wine country every weekend. I would prefer a reliable Toyota over the quality issues plaguing Tesla, plus the poor working conditions at the factory put me off of ever buying a Tesla, for ethical reasons. I don’t care if the model 3 is gold plated and cheap, the company and product quality sucks.
    - martyvis 4y ago
      Maybe Tesla has quality issues, but what car market doesn't (at least their wheels don't fall off - and I love Subaru). Have you actually looked whether the other manufacturers don't have issues with working conditions?

porphyra 4y ago

The Model Y build quality is really good nowadays. And Tesla cars have great performance and ace all the safety tests. So they are still good cars that are undeserving of all the hate.

zarkov99 4y ago

People who hate Elon musk, which includes almost all of media, have no qualms about lying about Tesla in order to hurt it/him. In fact they might think is the right thing to do, for the sake of, well whatever. If you are interested in the ground truth, check the videos by owners, talk to people who use FSD and best of all see if you can rent and drive a Tesla yourself. Its sad to say, but even in tech we swim in an ocean of ideologically driven BS and not all of us have realized it yet.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]