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I don't pretend to fully understand markets but movement on BTC, etc with all of these developments is just further proof to me there is no connection between a

I don't pretend to fully understand markets but movement on BTC, etc with all of these developments is just further proof to me there is no connection between any of these coins and reality. As another example, when Ethereum successfully moved to proof of stake without a hitch (an ultimately impressive and challenging development) the price actually went down. I don't understand anything in this space.

mthoms 4y ago
Lots of events are already "priced in" before they happen. That is, investors have anticipated the upcoming event (eg Ethereum upgrade) and the stock/token price has already moved accordingly. https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-does-it-mean-for-something-to-be-priced-in/ https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-does-it-mean-for-somethin...
- kkielhofner 4y ago
  Even with that how does this[0] chart make any sense? [0] - https://www.coindesk.com/embedded-chart/tcPpzTgN6bBC9 https://www.coindesk.com/embedded-chart/tcPpzTgN6bBC9
panarky 4y ago
It's not clear to me that the collapse of corrupt crypto exchanges should make the price of bitcoin drop. What is the mechanism exactly? It's not like FTX holds a shitload of bitcoin and now suddenly they have to sell it all, driving down the price. Is the mechanism just some kind of psychological thing, where a centralized criminal enterprise is associated with "crypto", even though it was mostly esoteric shit like FTT and MobileCoin and not bitcoin, but since bitcoin is also "crypto" then people who hold it would sell it because FTX folded? It's like saying the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers should somehow make US dollars worth less.
- kkielhofner 4y ago
  1) I would expect a fairly large portion of people are selling their cryptocurrencies on exchanges and wiring out in fiat instead of undertaking the relatively technically challenging process of moving them on chain to somewhere/something else. While we can see on chain activity acknowledged numbers citing "withdrawals" from exchanges don't provide specifics. I personally know several people who have just said "Yeah turns out the entire thing is a scam, I don't trust anything and I'll just cut my losses and be done with it all". 2) Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were not a total loss that resulted in the founder being arrested and charged with multiple counts of fraud within weeks with multiple reports from the guy who handled the failure of Enron (John J Ray) expressing public incredulity on just how crazy the whole thing was. Failed crypto institutions aren't receiving TARP loans or being absorbed by other institutions. I'm not saying what caused the 2008 financial crisis wasn't criminal but as we all know no one went to jail over it, which if nothing else highlights the differences in terms of public opinion and treatment by regulators. 3) Any comparison between crypto (individual coin or the entire ecosystem) and the world's reserve currency backed by the world's largest economy is dubious at best. The complete collapse of a couple of even the largest banks barely puts a dent in USD in terms of circulating supply, activity, etc. USD has this status because it's backed by what is considered to be the most financially stable institution in the world - the United States. In the minds of many if crypto is "backed" by anything it's people like SBF, the VCs this kid was able to hoodwink, etc. 4) The collapse of FTX has had an incredible ripple effect that has caused at least a dozen other entities (that I've tracked) within crypto to fail. 5) Over the past few weeks there has been increased focus and media attention on the shadiness of Binance, Tether, and virtually every other crypto exchange/institution up to and including Coinbase. This is all reflected in a survey from a couple of weeks ago that indicates just 8% of Americans have a positive view of cryptocurrencies[0]. I'm sure if they ran that survey again now that number would be even lower. So yeah, I would expect crypto prices to move downward significantly. [0] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/just-8percent-of-americans-have-a-positive-view-of-cryptocurrencies-now-cnbc-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/just-8percent-of-americans-h...
  - panarky 4y ago
    Okay, then to summarize, you're saying there's lots of shady stuff with centralized exchanges, and more of them could go bankrupt, and people with fiat and shitcoins and bitcoin on deposit there could lose it. There's a run on the bank, people want out, and the easiest way to get out is to sell your shitcoins and your bitcoin, and wire transfer dollars to your bank account. With all the selling of bitcoin to raise cash, the price of bitcoin must drop. And yet the bitcoin price is up six percent in the last seven days, so there must be some other mechanism at work.
- lmm 4y ago
  The collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers did make US dollars worth less, quite rightly.

mthoms 4y ago

Lots of events are already "priced in" before they happen. That is, investors have anticipated the upcoming event (eg Ethereum upgrade) and the stock/token price has already moved accordingly. https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-does-it-mean-for-something-to-be-priced-in/ https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-does-it-mean-for-somethin...

kkielhofner 4y ago
Even with that how does this[0] chart make any sense? [0] - https://www.coindesk.com/embedded-chart/tcPpzTgN6bBC9 https://www.coindesk.com/embedded-chart/tcPpzTgN6bBC9

panarky 4y ago

It's not clear to me that the collapse of corrupt crypto exchanges should make the price of bitcoin drop. What is the mechanism exactly? It's not like FTX holds a shitload of bitcoin and now suddenly they have to sell it all, driving down the price. Is the mechanism just some kind of psychological thing, where a centralized criminal enterprise is associated with "crypto", even though it was mostly esoteric shit like FTT and MobileCoin and not bitcoin, but since bitcoin is also "crypto" then people who hold it would sell it because FTX folded? It's like saying the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers should somehow make US dollars worth less.

kkielhofner 4y ago
1) I would expect a fairly large portion of people are selling their cryptocurrencies on exchanges and wiring out in fiat instead of undertaking the relatively technically challenging process of moving them on chain to somewhere/something else. While we can see on chain activity acknowledged numbers citing "withdrawals" from exchanges don't provide specifics. I personally know several people who have just said "Yeah turns out the entire thing is a scam, I don't trust anything and I'll just cut my losses and be done with it all". 2) Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were not a total loss that resulted in the founder being arrested and charged with multiple counts of fraud within weeks with multiple reports from the guy who handled the failure of Enron (John J Ray) expressing public incredulity on just how crazy the whole thing was. Failed crypto institutions aren't receiving TARP loans or being absorbed by other institutions. I'm not saying what caused the 2008 financial crisis wasn't criminal but as we all know no one went to jail over it, which if nothing else highlights the differences in terms of public opinion and treatment by regulators. 3) Any comparison between crypto (individual coin or the entire ecosystem) and the world's reserve currency backed by the world's largest economy is dubious at best. The complete collapse of a couple of even the largest banks barely puts a dent in USD in terms of circulating supply, activity, etc. USD has this status because it's backed by what is considered to be the most financially stable institution in the world - the United States. In the minds of many if crypto is "backed" by anything it's people like SBF, the VCs this kid was able to hoodwink, etc. 4) The collapse of FTX has had an incredible ripple effect that has caused at least a dozen other entities (that I've tracked) within crypto to fail. 5) Over the past few weeks there has been increased focus and media attention on the shadiness of Binance, Tether, and virtually every other crypto exchange/institution up to and including Coinbase. This is all reflected in a survey from a couple of weeks ago that indicates just 8% of Americans have a positive view of cryptocurrencies[0]. I'm sure if they ran that survey again now that number would be even lower. So yeah, I would expect crypto prices to move downward significantly. [0] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/just-8percent-of-americans-have-a-positive-view-of-cryptocurrencies-now-cnbc-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/just-8percent-of-americans-h...
- panarky 4y ago
  Okay, then to summarize, you're saying there's lots of shady stuff with centralized exchanges, and more of them could go bankrupt, and people with fiat and shitcoins and bitcoin on deposit there could lose it. There's a run on the bank, people want out, and the easiest way to get out is to sell your shitcoins and your bitcoin, and wire transfer dollars to your bank account. With all the selling of bitcoin to raise cash, the price of bitcoin must drop. And yet the bitcoin price is up six percent in the last seven days, so there must be some other mechanism at work.
lmm 4y ago
The collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers did make US dollars worth less, quite rightly.