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Elon Musk’s SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140B

8 points by ioblomov 4y ago

ioblomov 4y ago
https://archive.ph/eCx01 https://archive.ph/eCx01
Zigurd 4y ago
Here is the key element: Musk has previously said Starlink could be spun off in a public listing once cash flow is more predictable. In June 2021, Musk said the company would need to invest $20 billion to $30 billion to maintain Starlink’s competitive position. The basis for SpaceX valuation, much in the way Tesla's valuation is highly dependent on self-driving happening within a relevant time frame, depends on Starlink becoming a significant global telecom player, not just a niche player like Viasat. Lots of open questions for both, but the most crucial one that jumps out to me is whether next gen Starlink satellites can create a reliable performant "backbone" in orbit to solve the performance and coverage limitations of a "bent pipe" architecture. I put "backbone" in quotes because it will probably be significantly different from a terrestrial internet backbone. But it is the crucial element. This isn't as daunting a problem as full self driving using only computer vision, but it has never been done at the proposed scale and with performance and reliability that have to compete with terrestrial networks.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  From a recent email sent to StarLink users: > STARLINK The Starlink team is currently servicing your location using inter-satellite links (aka space lasers). Space lasers allow Starlink satellites to connect directly to one another, eliminating the need for a local ground station and enabling Starlink to deliver service to some of the most remote locations in the world_like Antarctica. The Starlink team is the first to deploy space laser technology at this scale, and your location is among the first to receive this service. As one of the first, we encourage you to share your feedback. In particular, if you are experiencing spotty service or periods of poor connectivity, please reach out to our Support team. Both the performance and capacity of our space lasers will improve dramatically between now and the end of the year, which will increase the reliability of your connection and allow us to bring even more remote users online. If for any reason you are not satisfied with your Starlink service, you can return the hardware within 30 days for a full refund. As always, you can cancel at any time on your account page. Thank you for your support and we look forward to seeing you online!
  - Zigurd 4y ago
    Laser links work. IIRC Google even tested a laser link between balloons in the atmosphere. While most of the more-advanced uses I have seen in the news are space-to-ground links, there is nothing, in principle, that would prevent satellites in a LEO constellation from using laser links. The questions is more about how well it works in practice. In 5G, for example, beamforming mmwave links work great when you provision it for fixed-wireless access (FWA). FWA is really real. But 5G beam "sweeping" and beam steering to track multiple moving devices are much, much harder to make work in real world situations. It all works in principle. But FWA is a real reliable product today. 5G "beam management" is still almost entirely a demo or in the lab.

8 points by ioblomov 4y ago

https://archive.ph/eCx01 https://archive.ph/eCx01

Here is the key element: Musk has previously said Starlink could be spun off in a public listing once cash flow is more predictable. In June 2021, Musk said the company would need to invest $20 billion to $30 billion to maintain Starlink’s competitive position. The basis for SpaceX valuation, much in the way Tesla's valuation is highly dependent on self-driving happening within a relevant time frame, depends on Starlink becoming a significant global telecom player, not just a niche player like Viasat. Lots of open questions for both, but the most crucial one that jumps out to me is whether next gen Starlink satellites can create a reliable performant "backbone" in orbit to solve the performance and coverage limitations of a "bent pipe" architecture. I put "backbone" in quotes because it will probably be significantly different from a terrestrial internet backbone. But it is the crucial element. This isn't as daunting a problem as full self driving using only computer vision, but it has never been done at the proposed scale and with performance and reliability that have to compete with terrestrial networks.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
From a recent email sent to StarLink users: > STARLINK The Starlink team is currently servicing your location using inter-satellite links (aka space lasers). Space lasers allow Starlink satellites to connect directly to one another, eliminating the need for a local ground station and enabling Starlink to deliver service to some of the most remote locations in the world_like Antarctica. The Starlink team is the first to deploy space laser technology at this scale, and your location is among the first to receive this service. As one of the first, we encourage you to share your feedback. In particular, if you are experiencing spotty service or periods of poor connectivity, please reach out to our Support team. Both the performance and capacity of our space lasers will improve dramatically between now and the end of the year, which will increase the reliability of your connection and allow us to bring even more remote users online. If for any reason you are not satisfied with your Starlink service, you can return the hardware within 30 days for a full refund. As always, you can cancel at any time on your account page. Thank you for your support and we look forward to seeing you online!
- Zigurd 4y ago
  Laser links work. IIRC Google even tested a laser link between balloons in the atmosphere. While most of the more-advanced uses I have seen in the news are space-to-ground links, there is nothing, in principle, that would prevent satellites in a LEO constellation from using laser links. The questions is more about how well it works in practice. In 5G, for example, beamforming mmwave links work great when you provision it for fixed-wireless access (FWA). FWA is really real. But 5G beam "sweeping" and beam steering to track multiple moving devices are much, much harder to make work in real world situations. It all works in principle. But FWA is a real reliable product today. 5G "beam management" is still almost entirely a demo or in the lab.