4 ms·
One theory for why we seem to structurally “need” low rates now is due to the “tendency of profit to fall” the natural interest rate - what it would be without
by opportune 4y ago
One theory for why we seem to structurally “need” low rates now is due to the “tendency of profit to fall” the natural interest rate - what it would be without the fed - has also fallen. Over the long run the Fed gravitates towards the natural rate because it creates the most stable business environment.
The major structural phenomenon which prevents the tendency for profit to fall is technological innovation which creates disruption and temporary periods of higher profits due to things becoming more efficient. However, now that technological progress is quite far along, a lot of employment is in service fields which naturally cannot be made much more efficient (eg teaching, being a nurse).
I don’t entirely buy into all the Marx concepts but I do think the tendency for profit to fall is an inevitability in a stable, functioning free market as efficiency and competition drive down margins. This causes ROIC to lower