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I think it's just the difference in expectations between scientists and laypeople. "Major fusion breakthrough" to a scientist could mean one step out of 200, ov

I think it's just the difference in expectations between scientists and laypeople. "Major fusion breakthrough" to a scientist could mean one step out of 200, over 3 decades, towards functional fusion power. Scientists understand the long arc of progress. But these labs need to market to the public as well who invariably end up expecting a SimCity Fusion Power Plant within 18 months.

wolverine876 4y ago
Many on HN have the same response to many things in every domain, not just research.
- xbmcuser 4y ago
  Yeah its the same here about most new technology like ai and improvement in solar and battery technology. One thing I have noticed is that some of the most vocal people have formed their opinions years ago and now they are not aware or ignore all the changes/improvements that have occured since.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    That's not completely true, but has a lot of truth in it. Everyone formed their opinion about eg. Blockchain a long time ago. But they do admit that eg. Gpt-3 is pretty advanced, but has it's own flaws.
- Moissanite 4y ago
  On fusion energy and battery technology I see plenty of cynicism, but given the history of wildly over-stated "advances" in both fields I think people are justified in leaning towards pessimism.
  - ethanbond 4y ago
    The reality of course falls short of the most optimistic projections, but e.g. for batteries: look around! Wealthy countries at least are now full of little gadgets that couldn't have existed even a few years ago due to the battery demands. A walk down any street in NYC you'll see probably 5-8 different personal transportation systems that are pretty close to sci-fi.
    - simonh 4y ago
      I agree on batteries, but something like half a dozen Manhattan projects worth has been spent on fusion research so far and we don’t seem anywhere remotely close to achieving even a fraction of its promise. I remember reading about the future of fusion energy in my teens, and now my daughters are coming out of their teens. And I had kids late. I’m sorry but technical break even just doesn’t cut it for me at this point.
- paxys 4y ago
  For being a tech entrepreneur forum people here are strangely very anti science and technology. The top voted responses to every new product announcement are essentially "why do we need this? Pen and paper work just fine".
  - ForgotIdAgain 4y ago
    In my experience, the more someone has deep understanding in tech, the more they are critical of it. Especially true in my field of infosec.
    - whimsicalism 4y ago
      Yes, it's called counter-signaling.
    - Robotbeat 4y ago
      I think as people gain experience, they can start substituting experience and cynicism for actual first principles thinking and curiosity.
    - paxys 4y ago
      Everyone is a cynic simply because cynicism is easy. Any infosec professional can go "computers are insecure, never use them". And the advice will be correct, but ultimately useless. The ones worth anything won't just point out problems but also find solutions.
    - wolverine876 4y ago
      > the more someone has deep understanding in tech, the more they are critical of it. I think the criticism comes mostly from people with just a little knowledge, trying to sound and feel like they know more. Just a few talking points or principles enable you to criticize, but not seriously analyze (much less create).
  - dsr_ 4y ago
    That's because for 90% of new products, the old stuff performs better, uses fewer resources, and has been debugged in ways the new stuff has not. All the new stuff, however, has marketing and looks shiny.
gus_massa 4y ago
As a scientists, I'll never classify the 200 intermediate steps as "major breakthrough". Perhaps 1 or 2 of them. Fusion looks difficult, so let's say 5 of them. All the other are just improvements, minor improvements, side quest, dead ends, easy task for a undergraduate thesis, ... If you read "breakthrough", you can be almost sure that it's an exaggeration from the press or the marketing team of the university (and in some rare cases, from the research team).

wolverine876 4y ago

Many on HN have the same response to many things in every domain, not just research.

xbmcuser 4y ago
Yeah its the same here about most new technology like ai and improvement in solar and battery technology. One thing I have noticed is that some of the most vocal people have formed their opinions years ago and now they are not aware or ignore all the changes/improvements that have occured since.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  That's not completely true, but has a lot of truth in it. Everyone formed their opinion about eg. Blockchain a long time ago. But they do admit that eg. Gpt-3 is pretty advanced, but has it's own flaws.
Moissanite 4y ago
On fusion energy and battery technology I see plenty of cynicism, but given the history of wildly over-stated "advances" in both fields I think people are justified in leaning towards pessimism.
- ethanbond 4y ago
  The reality of course falls short of the most optimistic projections, but e.g. for batteries: look around! Wealthy countries at least are now full of little gadgets that couldn't have existed even a few years ago due to the battery demands. A walk down any street in NYC you'll see probably 5-8 different personal transportation systems that are pretty close to sci-fi.
  - simonh 4y ago
    I agree on batteries, but something like half a dozen Manhattan projects worth has been spent on fusion research so far and we don’t seem anywhere remotely close to achieving even a fraction of its promise. I remember reading about the future of fusion energy in my teens, and now my daughters are coming out of their teens. And I had kids late. I’m sorry but technical break even just doesn’t cut it for me at this point.
paxys 4y ago
For being a tech entrepreneur forum people here are strangely very anti science and technology. The top voted responses to every new product announcement are essentially "why do we need this? Pen and paper work just fine".
- ForgotIdAgain 4y ago
  In my experience, the more someone has deep understanding in tech, the more they are critical of it. Especially true in my field of infosec.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    Yes, it's called counter-signaling.
  - Robotbeat 4y ago
    I think as people gain experience, they can start substituting experience and cynicism for actual first principles thinking and curiosity.
  - paxys 4y ago
    Everyone is a cynic simply because cynicism is easy. Any infosec professional can go "computers are insecure, never use them". And the advice will be correct, but ultimately useless. The ones worth anything won't just point out problems but also find solutions.
  - wolverine876 4y ago
    > the more someone has deep understanding in tech, the more they are critical of it. I think the criticism comes mostly from people with just a little knowledge, trying to sound and feel like they know more. Just a few talking points or principles enable you to criticize, but not seriously analyze (much less create).
- dsr_ 4y ago
  That's because for 90% of new products, the old stuff performs better, uses fewer resources, and has been debugged in ways the new stuff has not. All the new stuff, however, has marketing and looks shiny.

gus_massa 4y ago

As a scientists, I'll never classify the 200 intermediate steps as "major breakthrough". Perhaps 1 or 2 of them. Fusion looks difficult, so let's say 5 of them. All the other are just improvements, minor improvements, side quest, dead ends, easy task for a undergraduate thesis, ... If you read "breakthrough", you can be almost sure that it's an exaggeration from the press or the marketing team of the university (and in some rare cases, from the research team).