3 ms·

> But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful j

> But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence. Yep, I think that's exactly it. In his mind, it's either - do not do any interviews. The outcome is a 90% probability of life in prision - do the interviews and try to shift public opinion to it being an accident. He knows he still has some influence over the media because of his past donations. Maybe 50% probability of life in prison if he can shift public opinion?

fallingknife 4y ago
Past donations only give you influence when they serve as evidence you will make future donations. SBF won't be making any big donations anytime soon so they will buy him absolutely nothing now.
LarryMullins 4y ago
He seems like an addicted gambler who thinks he just needs one more bet to dig himself out of the hole. > "Disgraced crypto boss Sam Bankman-Fried says he hopes to start a new business to make enough money to pay back victims of the FTX collapse." https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363
stouset 4y ago
If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce. So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell? That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.
- TotoHorner 4y ago
  > why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing Because he wasn't expected their balance sheet to get leaked. He had enough liquidity from FTX customer deposits to cover any Alameda margin calls from losses and Alameda wouldn't get margin called from FTX for any losses (due to their god mode). So, he could keep just keep holding levered losses and wait for the tide to turn. However, the FTX balance sheet got leaked and that caused CZ to want to liquidate his FTT stake. This caused a huge wave of customers wanted to withdraw their money from FTX just in case (a very smart decision in retrospect) and he didn't expect that many customer withdrawals to come at once. Or, maybe he thought he'd be fine if 10-20% of customers withdrew (in a worst case scenario) because he could sell the FTT "collateral". But, the price of FTT also collapsed simultaneously and that caused the ponzi to fall apart. Edit: Or sorry, do you mean he should've cashed out and disappeared last month (after it was revealed that FTX lost all the customer deposits)? Yeah, I don't think that's possible. He would've been on the FBI most-wanted list and multiple intelligence agencies would be looking for him. Having a billion dollars is pretty pointless if you're a top 10 most wanted criminal. Unless you have a country that's explicitly willing to shelter you, then you can't really spend the money otherwise you'll give yourself away. Also, I don't think he's a complete psychopath. Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives and I don't think he wanted that. (if he disappeared, he would not be able to talk to his family again as aiding a fugitive from justice is illegal. Also, it would be completely impossible for his parents to live normal-ish lives if their son was on the FBI top 10 most wanted list. It's slightly more possible if their son is in prison.)
  - creato 4y ago
    > Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives How is that? Are they involved somehow? I’ve been following this somewhat closely and the only time I’ve seen his family mentioned is that he should have known better given his parents’ expertise, but that doesn’t imply they were involved.
    - zeven7 4y ago
zeven7 4y ago
This is exactly it. He thinks he's the smartest, most persuasive guy in the room. And, given that he was able to raise $420 million while pocketing $300 million in the last funding round, he's probably right. But I doubt even he can talk his way out of this one. I hope not.

fallingknife 4y ago

Past donations only give you influence when they serve as evidence you will make future donations. SBF won't be making any big donations anytime soon so they will buy him absolutely nothing now.

LarryMullins 4y ago

He seems like an addicted gambler who thinks he just needs one more bet to dig himself out of the hole. > "Disgraced crypto boss Sam Bankman-Fried says he hopes to start a new business to make enough money to pay back victims of the FTX collapse." https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363

stouset 4y ago

If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce. So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell? That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.

TotoHorner 4y ago
> why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing Because he wasn't expected their balance sheet to get leaked. He had enough liquidity from FTX customer deposits to cover any Alameda margin calls from losses and Alameda wouldn't get margin called from FTX for any losses (due to their god mode). So, he could keep just keep holding levered losses and wait for the tide to turn. However, the FTX balance sheet got leaked and that caused CZ to want to liquidate his FTT stake. This caused a huge wave of customers wanted to withdraw their money from FTX just in case (a very smart decision in retrospect) and he didn't expect that many customer withdrawals to come at once. Or, maybe he thought he'd be fine if 10-20% of customers withdrew (in a worst case scenario) because he could sell the FTT "collateral". But, the price of FTT also collapsed simultaneously and that caused the ponzi to fall apart. Edit: Or sorry, do you mean he should've cashed out and disappeared last month (after it was revealed that FTX lost all the customer deposits)? Yeah, I don't think that's possible. He would've been on the FBI most-wanted list and multiple intelligence agencies would be looking for him. Having a billion dollars is pretty pointless if you're a top 10 most wanted criminal. Unless you have a country that's explicitly willing to shelter you, then you can't really spend the money otherwise you'll give yourself away. Also, I don't think he's a complete psychopath. Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives and I don't think he wanted that. (if he disappeared, he would not be able to talk to his family again as aiding a fugitive from justice is illegal. Also, it would be completely impossible for his parents to live normal-ish lives if their son was on the FBI top 10 most wanted list. It's slightly more possible if their son is in prison.)
- creato 4y ago
  > Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives How is that? Are they involved somehow? I’ve been following this somewhat closely and the only time I’ve seen his family mentioned is that he should have known better given his parents’ expertise, but that doesn’t imply they were involved.
  - zeven7 4y ago

zeven7 4y ago

This is exactly it. He thinks he's the smartest, most persuasive guy in the room. And, given that he was able to raise $420 million while pocketing $300 million in the last funding round, he's probably right. But I doubt even he can talk his way out of this one. I hope not.