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https://mastodon.social/@jeffjarvis/109496789190113131 https://mastodon.social/@jeffjarvis/109496789190113131 "Might want to be selling that Muskmobile soon. V

https://mastodon.social/@jeffjarvis/109496789190113131 https://mastodon.social/@jeffjarvis/109496789190113131 "Might want to be selling that Muskmobile soon. Value falling at 2-3 times the Car Guru index. Look at the fall between 30 and 90 days. Much, much steeper than, say Mercedes or Toyota" Shows Model3's off almost 16% in the last 90 days.

RangerScience 4y ago
When I bought mine, one of the considerations was the car's resale value over time. 15% was what everything else lost driving it off the lot - in Dec 2021, that's what a Y lost over three years. (Everything else = EV/PHEVs luxury bigger-then-sedans). So... sure? If you're owning a Tesla as a form of value store, you might want to sell? If you're owning a Tesla as a car, then these don't look like the right numbers - you'd need the spread for buy->sale price, probably for new and used (since these used prices look about the same as new prices). Edit: Also, on second look, the tweet links to a Car Guru chart of a bunch of gas cars. The one I'd look at is the Rav4 Prime, IMHO one of the alternatives to the Y (sure was for me), which while still doing better than the Y on these charts, not by nearly as much as the originally selected cars. Model Y - https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d3044 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d30... RAv4 Prime - https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Toyota-RAV4-Prime-d2992 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Toyota-RAV4-Prime... The drops for 2021 models are almost identical, although I'd probably look at the 2022 numbers since the Rav4s in 2021 were heavily marked up by dealers ($10k+) due to rarity that year. While I can't sell my Y for more than I paid for it, I can sell it for more than than the outstanding balance on the loan (by... 25%?) sooo
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  Yeah, I wasn't posting that to make any kind of investment advice, only to show that it looks like the value of Tesla's seem to be impacted by Musk's shenanigans.
  - RangerScience 4y ago
    Ah! Sure. The timelines don't really line up well with Musk's shenanigans; they line up pretty well with the "Inflation Reduction Act", which AFAIK is the one that made changes to EV stuff. (Note: totes agree that the recent stuff is having / will have an impact; but; it doesn't look like it's this impact) For example: Both the Rav4 and the Model Y show ~10% drop over this time period according to this website; but, non-EV staples show a ~2% drop. And the Y shows a bigger drop than the Rav4. So, could be interpreted as Federal changes causing the 10% drop in EVs and the Musk shenanigans causing the additional 5% drop in Model Ys.
flutas 4y ago
> Shows Model3's off almost 16% in the last 90 days. Imo, this could be attributed to a few factors all compounding each other. 1. Most Tesla owners/interested consumers are more "online" than average. (no evidence, just my experience) 2. Tesla recently asked the FCC to withhold docs on a newer radar system. [0] 3. The Model 3 has also been rumored to have a refresh next year. [1] But also I think they are just cherry picking data points to try and make a claim. [2] Other brands are down worse than Tesla but not mentioned. - Tesla is down 9% YoY or 15.03% in the last 90 days. Now let's compare to some others in the list... - Lexus is down 24.56% YoY or 5.69% in the last 90 days. - Wagoneer is down 28.92% YoY, or 5.99% in the last 90 days. - Infiniti is down 9.44% YoY or 6.76% in the last 90 days. While others are still down similarly (within a few % points), but not worse than Tesla. - Scion is down 6.45% YoY or 7.76% in the last 90 days. - FIAT is down 5.95% YoY or 8.84% in the last 90 days. - Dodge is down 7.04% YoY or 6.63% in the last 90 days. - Chevrolet is down 6.19% YoY or 4.97% in the last 90 days. I think what we're actually seeing in the numbers here are just signs that people are slowing on buying used cars, but also slowing on buying more expensive vehicles in general (at least until you hit the other side of the curve, where rich people are still buying ex ferraris). [0]: https://insideevs.com/news/625502/tesla-alerts-fcc-new-radar-device-coming/ https://insideevs.com/news/625502/tesla-alerts-fcc-new-radar... [1]: https://www.carscoops.com/2022/11/tesla-working-on-model-3-refresh-with-an-even-more-simplified-interior/ https://www.carscoops.com/2022/11/tesla-working-on-model-3-r... [2]: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/ https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/ (9/13/2022 through 12/10/2022
brigade 4y ago
Earlier this year, used Teslas were selling for upwards of $10k over what Tesla sold them for new, and Tesla kept bumping up the MSRP. It was the worst used/new value ratio across the industry, probably since there are no dealers you could pay a market adjustment to in order to get a new one immediately instead of waiting half a year. Now that the delivery time for new Teslas is down to a month or two depending on model, of course used prices are dropping like a rock.

RangerScience 4y ago

When I bought mine, one of the considerations was the car's resale value over time. 15% was what everything else lost driving it off the lot - in Dec 2021, that's what a Y lost over three years. (Everything else = EV/PHEVs luxury bigger-then-sedans). So... sure? If you're owning a Tesla as a form of value store, you might want to sell? If you're owning a Tesla as a car, then these don't look like the right numbers - you'd need the spread for buy->sale price, probably for new and used (since these used prices look about the same as new prices). Edit: Also, on second look, the tweet links to a Car Guru chart of a bunch of gas cars. The one I'd look at is the Rav4 Prime, IMHO one of the alternatives to the Y (sure was for me), which while still doing better than the Y on these charts, not by nearly as much as the originally selected cars. Model Y - https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d3044 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-Y-d30... RAv4 Prime - https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Toyota-RAV4-Prime-d2992 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Toyota-RAV4-Prime... The drops for 2021 models are almost identical, although I'd probably look at the 2022 numbers since the Rav4s in 2021 were heavily marked up by dealers ($10k+) due to rarity that year. While I can't sell my Y for more than I paid for it, I can sell it for more than than the outstanding balance on the loan (by... 25%?) sooo

UncleOxidant 4y ago
Yeah, I wasn't posting that to make any kind of investment advice, only to show that it looks like the value of Tesla's seem to be impacted by Musk's shenanigans.
- RangerScience 4y ago
  Ah! Sure. The timelines don't really line up well with Musk's shenanigans; they line up pretty well with the "Inflation Reduction Act", which AFAIK is the one that made changes to EV stuff. (Note: totes agree that the recent stuff is having / will have an impact; but; it doesn't look like it's this impact) For example: Both the Rav4 and the Model Y show ~10% drop over this time period according to this website; but, non-EV staples show a ~2% drop. And the Y shows a bigger drop than the Rav4. So, could be interpreted as Federal changes causing the 10% drop in EVs and the Musk shenanigans causing the additional 5% drop in Model Ys.

flutas 4y ago

> Shows Model3's off almost 16% in the last 90 days. Imo, this could be attributed to a few factors all compounding each other. 1. Most Tesla owners/interested consumers are more "online" than average. (no evidence, just my experience) 2. Tesla recently asked the FCC to withhold docs on a newer radar system. [0] 3. The Model 3 has also been rumored to have a refresh next year. [1] But also I think they are just cherry picking data points to try and make a claim. [2] Other brands are down worse than Tesla but not mentioned. - Tesla is down 9% YoY or 15.03% in the last 90 days. Now let's compare to some others in the list... - Lexus is down 24.56% YoY or 5.69% in the last 90 days. - Wagoneer is down 28.92% YoY, or 5.99% in the last 90 days. - Infiniti is down 9.44% YoY or 6.76% in the last 90 days. While others are still down similarly (within a few % points), but not worse than Tesla. - Scion is down 6.45% YoY or 7.76% in the last 90 days. - FIAT is down 5.95% YoY or 8.84% in the last 90 days. - Dodge is down 7.04% YoY or 6.63% in the last 90 days. - Chevrolet is down 6.19% YoY or 4.97% in the last 90 days. I think what we're actually seeing in the numbers here are just signs that people are slowing on buying used cars, but also slowing on buying more expensive vehicles in general (at least until you hit the other side of the curve, where rich people are still buying ex ferraris). [0]: https://insideevs.com/news/625502/tesla-alerts-fcc-new-radar-device-coming/ https://insideevs.com/news/625502/tesla-alerts-fcc-new-radar... [1]: https://www.carscoops.com/2022/11/tesla-working-on-model-3-refresh-with-an-even-more-simplified-interior/ https://www.carscoops.com/2022/11/tesla-working-on-model-3-r... [2]: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/ https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/ (9/13/2022 through 12/10/2022

brigade 4y ago

Earlier this year, used Teslas were selling for upwards of $10k over what Tesla sold them for new, and Tesla kept bumping up the MSRP. It was the worst used/new value ratio across the industry, probably since there are no dealers you could pay a market adjustment to in order to get a new one immediately instead of waiting half a year. Now that the delivery time for new Teslas is down to a month or two depending on model, of course used prices are dropping like a rock.