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> he seems to—at least on some level—legitimately believe that all of this is extremely complicated and impossible to understand unless you're someone of his in

> he seems to—at least on some level—legitimately believe that all of this is extremely complicated and impossible to understand unless you're someone of his intellectual caliber. It's so complicated, in fact, that even he struggles to keep it all in his head at once Yeah, I strongly disagree here. He's just a pathological liar and he's currently on an interview spree where he's lying out of his mouth to try and avoid jail time. If you want evidence that he a liar, look at the DMs he sent to his friend (apparently he forgot she was a reporter?) that got published to Vox. He clearly explained his strategy of lying about his left-leaning political views to get brownie points with the media. He intentionally wanted to defraud people from the start. When he started FTX, they went through multiple jurisdictions (first Hong Kong, then Singapore and finally the Bahamas) to find the country that would give him the least regulatory oversight so he could run his ponzi. He intentionally had staff message him using Signal with disappearing messages to minimize the paper trail. Same thing with hiring the Ultimate Bet guy. He had a clear backdoor that allowed him to send customer funds over to Alameda and he put some some BS "FTX collateral" to serve as a veneer. He bought companies like BlockFi to get more customer funds so he could keep the ponzi going. Spent fucktons on advertising in arenas, F1, superbowl, etc. because your customer LTV calculation changes when you can just steal the user's deposits and use them to lever up your hedge fund. I'm guessing his plan was that he would use the FTX user deposits to take a huge long position on crypto, ride the bull wave and become the richest person in the world. He thought he'd be able to time it right and get out before the bear market with his profits but he timed it incorrectly and Alameda blew up. Now, he just wants to make it seem like it was an accident and due to poor management by him. No, it was 100% intentional and he knew exactly what he was doing.

stouset 4y ago
You could be right. But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence.
- TotoHorner 4y ago
  > But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence. Yep, I think that's exactly it. In his mind, it's either - do not do any interviews. The outcome is a 90% probability of life in prision - do the interviews and try to shift public opinion to it being an accident. He knows he still has some influence over the media because of his past donations. Maybe 50% probability of life in prison if he can shift public opinion?
  - fallingknife 4y ago
    Past donations only give you influence when they serve as evidence you will make future donations. SBF won't be making any big donations anytime soon so they will buy him absolutely nothing now.
  - LarryMullins 4y ago
    He seems like an addicted gambler who thinks he just needs one more bet to dig himself out of the hole. > "Disgraced crypto boss Sam Bankman-Fried says he hopes to start a new business to make enough money to pay back victims of the FTX collapse." https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363
  - stouset 4y ago
    If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce. So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell? That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.
    - TotoHorner 4y ago
A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
<< He's just a pathological liar and he's currently on an interview spree where he's lying out of his mouth to try and avoid jail time. That is likely true, but it does not disprove parent's point of: << he seems to—at least on some level—legitimately believe that all of this is extremely complicated and impossible to understand Interview with various fraudsters over the years seem to suggest it is not that uncommon for the individual to create a story around the event that got them in hot water and it is also not uncommon to have them repeat it ( and seemingly even believe it ). It is a basic psychological defense. And, as a bonus, unless the individual is an actual psychopath, in which case it likely does not matter, you get to sell your story without seeming like you are lying ( and most people suck at lying, while they know they are lying ). Still, it is just an opinion and it is not mutually exclusive with what you wrote.

stouset 4y ago

You could be right. But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence.

TotoHorner 4y ago
> But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence. Yep, I think that's exactly it. In his mind, it's either - do not do any interviews. The outcome is a 90% probability of life in prision - do the interviews and try to shift public opinion to it being an accident. He knows he still has some influence over the media because of his past donations. Maybe 50% probability of life in prison if he can shift public opinion?
- fallingknife 4y ago
  Past donations only give you influence when they serve as evidence you will make future donations. SBF won't be making any big donations anytime soon so they will buy him absolutely nothing now.
- LarryMullins 4y ago
  He seems like an addicted gambler who thinks he just needs one more bet to dig himself out of the hole. > "Disgraced crypto boss Sam Bankman-Fried says he hopes to start a new business to make enough money to pay back victims of the FTX collapse." https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63911363
- stouset 4y ago
  If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce. So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell? That's what I can't put together about this strategy. It only makes sense to me if he genuinely, truly doesn't believe he did anything wrong. Which is frankly amazing if true given everything we know.
  - TotoHorner 4y ago

A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago

<< He's just a pathological liar and he's currently on an interview spree where he's lying out of his mouth to try and avoid jail time. That is likely true, but it does not disprove parent's point of: << he seems to—at least on some level—legitimately believe that all of this is extremely complicated and impossible to understand Interview with various fraudsters over the years seem to suggest it is not that uncommon for the individual to create a story around the event that got them in hot water and it is also not uncommon to have them repeat it ( and seemingly even believe it ). It is a basic psychological defense. And, as a bonus, unless the individual is an actual psychopath, in which case it likely does not matter, you get to sell your story without seeming like you are lying ( and most people suck at lying, while they know they are lying ). Still, it is just an opinion and it is not mutually exclusive with what you wrote.