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The valuation is just insane, and being propped up by a weird cult of personality. A combination of higher interest rates, traditional automakers fielding some
by generj 4y ago
The valuation is just insane, and being propped up by a weird cult of personality.
A combination of higher interest rates, traditional automakers fielding some good EV options in mass, and Elon’s personal instability seem to all be hitting at once to get towards a more reasonable valuation.
- brianwawok 4y agoSo far no one else can produce a decent EV in volume. By volume let’s say 250k+ a year. Rivian looks like it might pop. Really would love there to be some alternatives of good EVs that aren’t tied to stealerships.
- marcc 4y agoWhat do you mean by "pop"? I can't tell if you mean that the valuation could increase significantly or pop like a bubble and decrease.
- brianwawok 4y agoIt's on the brink of going under from what I can tell. People like the product, but they aren't making nearly enough for how much money they burn. If the recession hits and funds dry up, I think it's game over.
- netrus 4y agoVW produces >400k EV this year. And that's about 5% of all cars they produced. And they are scaling up _fast_. Tesla has been an incredible first-mover and bootstrapper - but I do not see how they can keep their lead in the long run. It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. Now it's all about processes, sourcing, quality control - stuff that traditional car makers have a lot of expertise in.
- practice9 4y ago> quality control new Toyota EV = wheels falling off, battery overheating and not able to charge to 100% new VW EVs = large panel gaps > processes new VW EVs = if you are lucky with your firmware version, to update the car via OTA you have to leave your car dealer's service center; dealers still a pain in the ass for both VW and customers GM EVs = just don't produce them because of parts shortage I don't believe their expertise helps, it was the slow iterative upgrade path that created this myth. As soon as the OEMs need to create a new product, they encounter the same problems that Tesla was criticised for and eventually solved. > It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. There are lots of low-hanging fruits for EV efficiency and production that traditional manufacturers are slow on adopting. Like single-piece rear casting (IDRA Gigapress, etc.)
- generj 4y agoAny new model introduction has problems, there’s a reason it is popular to avoid the first model year or two. It’s unlikely these car makers wouldn’t fix these quality control issues after that. By comparison Tesla quality is abysmal and took many years to improve to meet other car makers. It’s hard to stand up large car factories for the first time alongside a new car model. EVs share probably 90% of the non engine parts with other cars. The big components which are different are the drivetrain (simpler), motors, battery and charging equipment. Motors are a commodity and far simpler to manufacture than ICEs. Batteries are the difficult component right now but will likely become more if a commodity as well. EVs are much easier to build than ICEs. Ultimately we can expect far higher car quality going forward (from our current period of already excellent car reliability).
- MrMan 4y agoas we go forward, cars will become more like phones. it will be interesting to see if the auto industry goes in a similar direction in terms of consolidation of market share.
- mikeyouse 4y agoFord's planning on building enough production capacity to ship 600k EVs per year by the end of next year, Hyundai/Kia are at 350k/year capacity now, GM is projecting "400k units between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024", VW is shipping 800k EVs in 2022. So all of the traditional autos have caught up.. granted some of those are bad, and many will flop, but as a worst case they're just producing their already popular cars in EV form factors which is a lot of competition to Tesla.
- foobarian 4y agoI hope our utility providers are ready!
- matt-attack 4y agoNo worries, we'll just deploy these: https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-diesel/ https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-dies...
- twblalock 4y agoIn California, they definitely aren't.
- derekp7 4y agoDon't most EV's get charged at night when factories and AC's aren't drawing current?
- jnwatson 4y agoIt is unfortunately also when the wind slows down and the sun stops shining, which is where an increasing amount of our power generation comes from.
- deng 4y agoVolkswagen Group sold 150k all-electric cars in Q3.
- poxrud 4y agoThere's also the problem with chargers. No one else has such an extensive and easy to use charging network.
- cogman10 4y agoThe CCS charging network is starting to ramp up and with the last congressional budget I expect it to explode a bit in the upcoming years. $5 billion dollars was earmarked for EV charging. The latest CCS charging standard supports the "plug and charge" model like tesla does. It'll take time, but I expect at the end of 5 years most stations will have it.
- poxrud 4y agoPerhaps things are better in the US but here in Ontario there are no real alternatives.
- brianwawok 4y agoCCS chargers are unreliable. 75% plus can be broken at any one time. Sometimes you get to a station and find out every single charge is busted. Hope you have charge to go to another! Tesla chargers.. never heard of a station being dead. If it was, the in-app nav would reroute you. The difference is Tesla cares about charge quality. CCS network made to settle Diselgate? No one really cares or puts in the effort to keep them all 100% up.
- super256 4y agoIs the US Tesla charging network proprietary and can only be used by tesla cars?
- starlust2 4y agoEV production volume is mostly limited by battery production. Manufacturers have been ramping that up so EV production should follow.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- generj 4y agoRivian is another insane valuation. Requiring a non-dealership EV removes all but a handful of companies. Those are the companies that as sibling commentators have pointed out are delivering EVs in volume.
- sthu11182 4y agoFord is attempting to change its dealership model to a better system (set pricing, dealership chargers, better training) by forcing them to agree to changes or lose your ability to sell Ford EVs. - https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rules/ https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rul...
- brianwawok 4y agoIt's better, but the dealer still makes 4-5k per EV they sell. Rivian or Tesla, you can skip that 4-5k dealer surcharge. I am not sure Ford can really source the parts that much cheaper to sell the same final product for the same price?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- noncoml 4y agoI think you are right. The valuation of Tesla is way too tight coupled to the popularity of Elon. And the later is not doing so well lately