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I think we have some problems with causation here. Being mocked and misunderstood seems neither necessary nor sufficient to making it big. I think Fred is arg

I think we have some problems with causation here. Being mocked and misunderstood seems neither necessary nor sufficient to making it big. I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or something. This really seems more like an emotional reaction to negative press than Fred's normal well-thought-out posts. Also, is Twitter profitable yet? That gets asked way too much, but I still don't know the answer yet.

acslater00 15y ago
The term you're looking for is "survivor bias." We remember the startups that were mocked but became breakout successes. We don't remember the 1000 startups that were mocked because they were terrible ideas, and failed because of it.
- rwmj 15y ago
  This Carl Sagan[1] quote is apt ... "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." [1] Apparently he really did say it too: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced
  - fredwilson 15y ago
    that's a great quote
jpdoctor 15y ago
> I think we have some problems with causation here. Hell, there's even a problem with correlation here. We've all seen plenty of crap that is mocked and misunderstood that sank to the bottom of the sea without fanfare.
munin 15y ago
I mean, everyone made fun of groupon and zynga, and ... is this a clever ploy to try and get some sagging stock up?
- fredwilson 15y ago
  no. my posts are not ploys. they are just my musings. i think outloud on my blog.
prophetjohn 15y ago
> I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or something. I think he's trying to say something along the lines of "even if you're mocked and misunderstood, persevere, because it does not mean that your product is not good." It's a pretty poor way to go about saying that, though, and it comes off as if he's bitter about what he heard and trying to reassure himself that his product is good.
fredwilson 15y ago
can't comment on the specific twitter question because that's confidential info. but it is very much on its way to becoming a big and sustainable business. i think the flaw in my post is you need something more than being mocked and misunderstood. you need traction, usage, momentum, etc. but when you have that and continue to be mocked and misunderstood, that's a very positive signal to me.
- shaggy 15y ago
  Can you provide any sort of insight into what will make twitter profitable? I'm not asking for numbers or anything, just some idea as to what will make it a long lasting, sustainable business with a real business model? You're original post and this comment are certainly on point in that twitter has traction and it's use is massive and wide spread, but in the end it comes down to who's paying for it? Will twitter move to an optional (freemium) subscription model? Will it admit it's a marketing and advertising dream data set and sell that? I personally don't use twitter and my own bias has always left me not understanding the point (too much noise) but I'm certainly interested in what the plan to become a real business is.
  - fredwilson 15y ago
    twitter's revenue model is the promoted suite http://blog.twitter.com/2010/10/promoted-promotions.html http://blog.twitter.com/2010/10/promoted-promotions.html that is what they have been focusing on for the past few years and it is producing a lot of revenue now
- DevX101 15y ago
  | you need something more than being mocked and misunderstood. you need traction, usage, momentum, etc. Companies that have traction, usage, momentum, etc and ARE NOT mocked and misunderstood certainly outperform the ones that fit those criteria and were mocked and misunderstood. Nonetheless, if you look at all the variables that could play a role in a company's success I doubt "mocked & misunderstood" has any predictive value over a large enough sample.

acslater00 15y ago

The term you're looking for is "survivor bias." We remember the startups that were mocked but became breakout successes. We don't remember the 1000 startups that were mocked because they were terrible ideas, and failed because of it.

rwmj 15y ago
This Carl Sagan[1] quote is apt ... "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." [1] Apparently he really did say it too: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced
- fredwilson 15y ago
  that's a great quote

jpdoctor 15y ago

> I think we have some problems with causation here. Hell, there's even a problem with correlation here. We've all seen plenty of crap that is mocked and misunderstood that sank to the bottom of the sea without fanfare.

munin 15y ago

I mean, everyone made fun of groupon and zynga, and ... is this a clever ploy to try and get some sagging stock up?

fredwilson 15y ago
no. my posts are not ploys. they are just my musings. i think outloud on my blog.

prophetjohn 15y ago

> I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or something. I think he's trying to say something along the lines of "even if you're mocked and misunderstood, persevere, because it does not mean that your product is not good." It's a pretty poor way to go about saying that, though, and it comes off as if he's bitter about what he heard and trying to reassure himself that his product is good.

fredwilson 15y ago

can't comment on the specific twitter question because that's confidential info. but it is very much on its way to becoming a big and sustainable business. i think the flaw in my post is you need something more than being mocked and misunderstood. you need traction, usage, momentum, etc. but when you have that and continue to be mocked and misunderstood, that's a very positive signal to me.

shaggy 15y ago
Can you provide any sort of insight into what will make twitter profitable? I'm not asking for numbers or anything, just some idea as to what will make it a long lasting, sustainable business with a real business model? You're original post and this comment are certainly on point in that twitter has traction and it's use is massive and wide spread, but in the end it comes down to who's paying for it? Will twitter move to an optional (freemium) subscription model? Will it admit it's a marketing and advertising dream data set and sell that? I personally don't use twitter and my own bias has always left me not understanding the point (too much noise) but I'm certainly interested in what the plan to become a real business is.
- fredwilson 15y ago
  twitter's revenue model is the promoted suite http://blog.twitter.com/2010/10/promoted-promotions.html http://blog.twitter.com/2010/10/promoted-promotions.html that is what they have been focusing on for the past few years and it is producing a lot of revenue now
DevX101 15y ago
| you need something more than being mocked and misunderstood. you need traction, usage, momentum, etc. Companies that have traction, usage, momentum, etc and ARE NOT mocked and misunderstood certainly outperform the ones that fit those criteria and were mocked and misunderstood. Nonetheless, if you look at all the variables that could play a role in a company's success I doubt "mocked & misunderstood" has any predictive value over a large enough sample.