8 ms·

Half-Price Tesla Stock Is Still No Bargain

35 points by TheAlchemist 4y ago

generj 4y ago
The valuation is just insane, and being propped up by a weird cult of personality. A combination of higher interest rates, traditional automakers fielding some good EV options in mass, and Elon’s personal instability seem to all be hitting at once to get towards a more reasonable valuation.
- brianwawok 4y ago
  So far no one else can produce a decent EV in volume. By volume let’s say 250k+ a year. Rivian looks like it might pop. Really would love there to be some alternatives of good EVs that aren’t tied to stealerships.
  - marcc 4y ago
    What do you mean by "pop"? I can't tell if you mean that the valuation could increase significantly or pop like a bubble and decrease.
    - brianwawok 4y ago
      It's on the brink of going under from what I can tell. People like the product, but they aren't making nearly enough for how much money they burn. If the recession hits and funds dry up, I think it's game over.
  - netrus 4y ago
    VW produces >400k EV this year. And that's about 5% of all cars they produced. And they are scaling up _fast_. Tesla has been an incredible first-mover and bootstrapper - but I do not see how they can keep their lead in the long run. It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. Now it's all about processes, sourcing, quality control - stuff that traditional car makers have a lot of expertise in.
    - practice9 4y ago
      > quality control new Toyota EV = wheels falling off, battery overheating and not able to charge to 100% new VW EVs = large panel gaps > processes new VW EVs = if you are lucky with your firmware version, to update the car via OTA you have to leave your car dealer's service center; dealers still a pain in the ass for both VW and customers GM EVs = just don't produce them because of parts shortage I don't believe their expertise helps, it was the slow iterative upgrade path that created this myth. As soon as the OEMs need to create a new product, they encounter the same problems that Tesla was criticised for and eventually solved. > It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. There are lots of low-hanging fruits for EV efficiency and production that traditional manufacturers are slow on adopting. Like single-piece rear casting (IDRA Gigapress, etc.)
      - generj 4y ago
        Any new model introduction has problems, there’s a reason it is popular to avoid the first model year or two. It’s unlikely these car makers wouldn’t fix these quality control issues after that. By comparison Tesla quality is abysmal and took many years to improve to meet other car makers. It’s hard to stand up large car factories for the first time alongside a new car model. EVs share probably 90% of the non engine parts with other cars. The big components which are different are the drivetrain (simpler), motors, battery and charging equipment. Motors are a commodity and far simpler to manufacture than ICEs. Batteries are the difficult component right now but will likely become more if a commodity as well. EVs are much easier to build than ICEs. Ultimately we can expect far higher car quality going forward (from our current period of already excellent car reliability).
        MrMan 4y ago
        as we go forward, cars will become more like phones. it will be interesting to see if the auto industry goes in a similar direction in terms of consolidation of market share.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    Ford's planning on building enough production capacity to ship 600k EVs per year by the end of next year, Hyundai/Kia are at 350k/year capacity now, GM is projecting "400k units between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024", VW is shipping 800k EVs in 2022. So all of the traditional autos have caught up.. granted some of those are bad, and many will flop, but as a worst case they're just producing their already popular cars in EV form factors which is a lot of competition to Tesla.
    - foobarian 4y ago
      I hope our utility providers are ready!
      - matt-attack 4y ago
        No worries, we'll just deploy these: https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-diesel/ https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-dies...
      - twblalock 4y ago
        In California, they definitely aren't.
      - derekp7 4y ago
        Don't most EV's get charged at night when factories and AC's aren't drawing current?
        jnwatson 4y ago
        It is unfortunately also when the wind slows down and the sun stops shining, which is where an increasing amount of our power generation comes from.
  - deng 4y ago
    Volkswagen Group sold 150k all-electric cars in Q3.
  - poxrud 4y ago
    There's also the problem with chargers. No one else has such an extensive and easy to use charging network.
    - cogman10 4y ago
      The CCS charging network is starting to ramp up and with the last congressional budget I expect it to explode a bit in the upcoming years. $5 billion dollars was earmarked for EV charging. The latest CCS charging standard supports the "plug and charge" model like tesla does. It'll take time, but I expect at the end of 5 years most stations will have it.
      - poxrud 4y ago
        Perhaps things are better in the US but here in Ontario there are no real alternatives.
      - brianwawok 4y ago
        CCS chargers are unreliable. 75% plus can be broken at any one time. Sometimes you get to a station and find out every single charge is busted. Hope you have charge to go to another! Tesla chargers.. never heard of a station being dead. If it was, the in-app nav would reroute you. The difference is Tesla cares about charge quality. CCS network made to settle Diselgate? No one really cares or puts in the effort to keep them all 100% up.
    - super256 4y ago
      Is the US Tesla charging network proprietary and can only be used by tesla cars?
      - Someone 4y ago
        It was/is. Tesla recently announced they are opening it up (https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-standard https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-s...)
      - poxrud 4y ago
  - starlust2 4y ago
    EV production volume is mostly limited by battery production. Manufacturers have been ramping that up so EV production should follow.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - generj 4y ago
    Rivian is another insane valuation. Requiring a non-dealership EV removes all but a handful of companies. Those are the companies that as sibling commentators have pointed out are delivering EVs in volume.
    - sthu11182 4y ago
      Ford is attempting to change its dealership model to a better system (set pricing, dealership chargers, better training) by forcing them to agree to changes or lose your ability to sell Ford EVs. - https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rules/ https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rul...
      - brianwawok 4y ago
        It's better, but the dealer still makes 4-5k per EV they sell. Rivian or Tesla, you can skip that 4-5k dealer surcharge. I am not sure Ford can really source the parts that much cheaper to sell the same final product for the same price?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- noncoml 4y ago
  I think you are right. The valuation of Tesla is way too tight coupled to the popularity of Elon. And the later is not doing so well lately
ppeetteerr 4y ago
Was really unhappy when Tesla made the S&P 500. It's too volatile and never should have been added to the index.
- throwaway1777 4y ago
  Lack of volatility is not a requirement for inclusion in the s&p
  - ppeetteerr 4y ago
    Agreed, neither is a sensible valuation.
twblalock 4y ago
I treat it as a meme stock. Tesla is actually a valuable company and I wouldn't be surprised if it truly is more valuable than Ford or GM at this point -- but for a meme stock, the fundamentals are not tied to the price at all. It could go up or down based on a Tweet.
- maxfurman 4y ago
  Completely agree. Tesla might be worth about as much as any of the major car manufacturers, but not more than all of them put together. We've already seen Ford and others put EVs on the road, so there isn't much of a moat there. Either Ford, GM, etc. are all wildly undervalued or Tesla is wildly overvalued. One of those seems more likely than the other to me.
  - UncleOxidant 4y ago
    The Koreans have some particularly strong EV models now. Kia EV6, Hyundai Ionic 5 & 6
    - twblalock 4y ago
      Until other public charging solutions become widespread, the Supercharger network will continue to be a killer feature for Tesla.
      - UncleOxidant 4y ago
        Several Target stores near me have charging stations now. 7/11 starting to put in some as well. Some companies have put in charging spots for employees. Even our library has 3 charging parking slots.
        Zigurd 4y ago
        EV charging stations are a lot less demanding in the form of safety, environmental regulation, and liability compared to fossil fuel fueling. You can put one in any parking lot that has a bit of slack space.
neilv 4y ago
Are Teslas yet becoming unfashionable to the well-to-do tech workers who traditionally bought Teslas? When the cult of personality is being a big jerk to the well-to-do tech workers at one of the biggest companies for them, that's pretty close to home. (It's easier for someone to seem fabulous when they're only stepping on other people.)
- jupp0r 4y ago
  - Name_Chawps 4y ago
    I knew he did some things people didn't like, but I didn't know he was promoting fascist conspiracy theories. Could you give examples?
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      "My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601894132573605888 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601894132573605888?
      - Quarrelsome 4y ago
        can we explain how wanting to prosecute Fauci (idk what even for) is a conspiracy theory that is also fascist?
        jupp0r 4y ago
        There are several conspiracy theories linked to this meme: https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/correcting-misinformation-about-dr-fauci/ https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/correcting-misinformation-...
      - LarryMullins 4y ago
        Is Fauci lying to congress about gain-of-function research a fascist conspiracy theory? I don't think that's right.
paulpauper 4y ago
Tesla has never been a bargain .This did not stop it from going up 100x. I don't think Amazon has ever been cheap either.
- alfalfasprout 4y ago
  Big difference between Tesla and Amazon though is Amazon has built a big moat via its logistics operation. Even if workers unionized and their costs went up the economies of scale they have are extremely difficult to be competitive with unless you're walmart. Tesla has some impressive factories being built but at the end of the day batteries are the limiting factor and the other automakers are catching up. Not to mention the QC is awful for teslas compared to traditional car manufacturers.
Animats 4y ago
“an acceleration of software-related profit.” Yeah, there are car people thinking they can get the margins Apple does. These are the people who came up with heated car seat subscriptions. I once went to an IoT meetup, and the Samsung guy was touting a refrigerator with a built-in tablet. For more than the cost of a refrigerator and a tablet. That margin didn't last. (Are people actually paying $15,000 for Tesla's Fake Self Driving?)
aprdm 4y ago
I will never buy or use anything that Musk touches again.
metadat 4y ago
Archive link: https://archive.ph/vfqOZ https://archive.ph/vfqOZ
briandw 4y ago
Elon's antics and politics are causing problems. IMHO the politics don't change Tesla huge lead in the EV space. Seems like people are conflating their hatred of Elon with Teslas potential as a company. None of the other car makers can produce EVs at a profit. Tesla has very high margins on their cars and are continuing to reduce their production costs. They have the following advantages: 1) Most efficient use of batteries (kWh per distance) 2) Most extensive charging network 3) Contracts for battery minerals, and battery supply contracts Once the the 4680 dry electrode process, structural battery pack and castings for the new Model Y and 3 are worked out and ramped, their manufacturing mote with be even bigger. I'm ignoring the FSD software, even though they are in the best position to pull that off. It's still too far off.
- hedora 4y ago
  1) Tesla's drivetrain's kWh per distance is the best, but only by 10% or so. That's not enough to be a deal breaker for the other brands. Body style selection completely dominates 10% drive train efficiency, and Tesla is rapidly falling behind there. 2) The Tesla charging network seems less extensive in silicon valley than the multiple competing networks. Also, Tesla is advertising that they'll open it up to all other manufacturers (at least in the US) really soon, so to the extent you believe Tesla can still deliver stuff, the charging network is not a competitive advantage. On top of that, the Biden infrastructure plan is subsidizing standard chargers, so the proprietary Tesla charging port is turning into a competitive disadvantage. 3) I agree that Tesla still has an advantage in terms of production ramp, but this is eroding too. BofA is projecting Tesla's market share will be in the low teens within a few years. Assuming their analysts aren't idiots, this implies the other manufactures have been able to secure battery sources. Regarding FSD: I strongly prefer the jog wheel computer + physical buttons in my BMW over Tesla's touch screens, and that's comparing features that exist. Other manufacturers have a bigger software functionality gap, from what I've heard, but that's not unique. Most manufacturers have auto-braking and lane keeping, which is most of what FSD has delivered so far. Regarding the rest of the company: Apparently, they pulled out of solar installs. Anecdotally, all the tesla powerwall licensed contractors around here hate supporting them (poor reliability), and point homeowners to LG on the low end or Enphase on the high end.
brodouevencode 4y ago
This is now an Elon-hate post.
user568439 4y ago
I think most comments ignore that Tesla is making much more profit for each car sold than its competitors. I didn’t make the math but I remember Tesla margin being around 20% while average in industry is quite below 10%. Tesla is increasing production and keeping its margin while competitors are still having problems to catch up. Now they produce comparable EVs but still with much less margin. Also Semi seems to be quite a game changer that will keep Tesla ahead in another market for quite a while
- generj 4y ago
  Good point about margin. I imagine a good chunk of that margin is from eliminating dealers from their sales model. Even with the higher margin, Tesla would need an insanely higher volume to justify their market cap. It’s never going to reach those volumes. I also suspect Tesla will not be able to maintain all of their margin as they face increased competition. Some of that margin doubtlessly comes from selling their FSD - and I think it’s unclear if they will be able to keep selling that at a premium as other car makers catch up and/or regulators investigate some advertising claims around it. Tesla’s highest margins appear to be in China, where operations are distinctly delicate for someone owning a large social media company. The Semi may legitimately make a difference; we’ll have to see how many they are able to produce and their market uptake. There are going to be other competitors in that space who are more aligned to the trucking industry. The current Tesla Semi seems to be a niche for short haul runs (which is still a big segment).

35 points by TheAlchemist 4y ago

The valuation is just insane, and being propped up by a weird cult of personality. A combination of higher interest rates, traditional automakers fielding some good EV options in mass, and Elon’s personal instability seem to all be hitting at once to get towards a more reasonable valuation.

brianwawok 4y ago
So far no one else can produce a decent EV in volume. By volume let’s say 250k+ a year. Rivian looks like it might pop. Really would love there to be some alternatives of good EVs that aren’t tied to stealerships.
- marcc 4y ago
  What do you mean by "pop"? I can't tell if you mean that the valuation could increase significantly or pop like a bubble and decrease.
  - brianwawok 4y ago
    It's on the brink of going under from what I can tell. People like the product, but they aren't making nearly enough for how much money they burn. If the recession hits and funds dry up, I think it's game over.
- netrus 4y ago
  VW produces >400k EV this year. And that's about 5% of all cars they produced. And they are scaling up _fast_. Tesla has been an incredible first-mover and bootstrapper - but I do not see how they can keep their lead in the long run. It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. Now it's all about processes, sourcing, quality control - stuff that traditional car makers have a lot of expertise in.
  - practice9 4y ago
    > quality control new Toyota EV = wheels falling off, battery overheating and not able to charge to 100% new VW EVs = large panel gaps > processes new VW EVs = if you are lucky with your firmware version, to update the car via OTA you have to leave your car dealer's service center; dealers still a pain in the ass for both VW and customers GM EVs = just don't produce them because of parts shortage I don't believe their expertise helps, it was the slow iterative upgrade path that created this myth. As soon as the OEMs need to create a new product, they encounter the same problems that Tesla was criticised for and eventually solved. > It just is not that hard to build a decent EV anymore. There are lots of low-hanging fruits for EV efficiency and production that traditional manufacturers are slow on adopting. Like single-piece rear casting (IDRA Gigapress, etc.)
    - generj 4y ago
      Any new model introduction has problems, there’s a reason it is popular to avoid the first model year or two. It’s unlikely these car makers wouldn’t fix these quality control issues after that. By comparison Tesla quality is abysmal and took many years to improve to meet other car makers. It’s hard to stand up large car factories for the first time alongside a new car model. EVs share probably 90% of the non engine parts with other cars. The big components which are different are the drivetrain (simpler), motors, battery and charging equipment. Motors are a commodity and far simpler to manufacture than ICEs. Batteries are the difficult component right now but will likely become more if a commodity as well. EVs are much easier to build than ICEs. Ultimately we can expect far higher car quality going forward (from our current period of already excellent car reliability).
      - MrMan 4y ago
        as we go forward, cars will become more like phones. it will be interesting to see if the auto industry goes in a similar direction in terms of consolidation of market share.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  Ford's planning on building enough production capacity to ship 600k EVs per year by the end of next year, Hyundai/Kia are at 350k/year capacity now, GM is projecting "400k units between Q3 2022 and Q2 2024", VW is shipping 800k EVs in 2022. So all of the traditional autos have caught up.. granted some of those are bad, and many will flop, but as a worst case they're just producing their already popular cars in EV form factors which is a lot of competition to Tesla.
  - foobarian 4y ago
    I hope our utility providers are ready!
    - matt-attack 4y ago
      No worries, we'll just deploy these: https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-diesel/ https://climatechangedispatch.com/electric-car-chargers-dies...
    - twblalock 4y ago
      In California, they definitely aren't.
    - derekp7 4y ago
      Don't most EV's get charged at night when factories and AC's aren't drawing current?
      - jnwatson 4y ago
        It is unfortunately also when the wind slows down and the sun stops shining, which is where an increasing amount of our power generation comes from.
- deng 4y ago
  Volkswagen Group sold 150k all-electric cars in Q3.
- poxrud 4y ago
  There's also the problem with chargers. No one else has such an extensive and easy to use charging network.
  - cogman10 4y ago
    The CCS charging network is starting to ramp up and with the last congressional budget I expect it to explode a bit in the upcoming years. $5 billion dollars was earmarked for EV charging. The latest CCS charging standard supports the "plug and charge" model like tesla does. It'll take time, but I expect at the end of 5 years most stations will have it.
    - poxrud 4y ago
      Perhaps things are better in the US but here in Ontario there are no real alternatives.
    - brianwawok 4y ago
      CCS chargers are unreliable. 75% plus can be broken at any one time. Sometimes you get to a station and find out every single charge is busted. Hope you have charge to go to another! Tesla chargers.. never heard of a station being dead. If it was, the in-app nav would reroute you. The difference is Tesla cares about charge quality. CCS network made to settle Diselgate? No one really cares or puts in the effort to keep them all 100% up.
  - super256 4y ago
    Is the US Tesla charging network proprietary and can only be used by tesla cars?
    - Someone 4y ago
      It was/is. Tesla recently announced they are opening it up (https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-standard https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-s...)
    - poxrud 4y ago
- starlust2 4y ago
  EV production volume is mostly limited by battery production. Manufacturers have been ramping that up so EV production should follow.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- generj 4y ago
  Rivian is another insane valuation. Requiring a non-dealership EV removes all but a handful of companies. Those are the companies that as sibling commentators have pointed out are delivering EVs in volume.
  - sthu11182 4y ago
    Ford is attempting to change its dealership model to a better system (set pricing, dealership chargers, better training) by forcing them to agree to changes or lose your ability to sell Ford EVs. - https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rules/ https://insideevs.com/news/610114/ford-modele-dealership-rul...
    - brianwawok 4y ago
      It's better, but the dealer still makes 4-5k per EV they sell. Rivian or Tesla, you can skip that 4-5k dealer surcharge. I am not sure Ford can really source the parts that much cheaper to sell the same final product for the same price?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
noncoml 4y ago
I think you are right. The valuation of Tesla is way too tight coupled to the popularity of Elon. And the later is not doing so well lately

ppeetteerr 4y ago

Was really unhappy when Tesla made the S&P 500. It's too volatile and never should have been added to the index.

throwaway1777 4y ago
Lack of volatility is not a requirement for inclusion in the s&p
- ppeetteerr 4y ago
  Agreed, neither is a sensible valuation.

twblalock 4y ago

I treat it as a meme stock. Tesla is actually a valuable company and I wouldn't be surprised if it truly is more valuable than Ford or GM at this point -- but for a meme stock, the fundamentals are not tied to the price at all. It could go up or down based on a Tweet.

maxfurman 4y ago
Completely agree. Tesla might be worth about as much as any of the major car manufacturers, but not more than all of them put together. We've already seen Ford and others put EVs on the road, so there isn't much of a moat there. Either Ford, GM, etc. are all wildly undervalued or Tesla is wildly overvalued. One of those seems more likely than the other to me.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  The Koreans have some particularly strong EV models now. Kia EV6, Hyundai Ionic 5 & 6
  - twblalock 4y ago
    Until other public charging solutions become widespread, the Supercharger network will continue to be a killer feature for Tesla.
    - UncleOxidant 4y ago
      Several Target stores near me have charging stations now. 7/11 starting to put in some as well. Some companies have put in charging spots for employees. Even our library has 3 charging parking slots.
      - Zigurd 4y ago
        EV charging stations are a lot less demanding in the form of safety, environmental regulation, and liability compared to fossil fuel fueling. You can put one in any parking lot that has a bit of slack space.

neilv 4y ago

Are Teslas yet becoming unfashionable to the well-to-do tech workers who traditionally bought Teslas? When the cult of personality is being a big jerk to the well-to-do tech workers at one of the biggest companies for them, that's pretty close to home. (It's easier for someone to seem fabulous when they're only stepping on other people.)

jupp0r 4y ago
- Name_Chawps 4y ago
  I knew he did some things people didn't like, but I didn't know he was promoting fascist conspiracy theories. Could you give examples?
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    "My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601894132573605888 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601894132573605888?
    - Quarrelsome 4y ago
      can we explain how wanting to prosecute Fauci (idk what even for) is a conspiracy theory that is also fascist?
      - jupp0r 4y ago
        There are several conspiracy theories linked to this meme: https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/correcting-misinformation-about-dr-fauci/ https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/correcting-misinformation-...
    - LarryMullins 4y ago
      Is Fauci lying to congress about gain-of-function research a fascist conspiracy theory? I don't think that's right.

paulpauper 4y ago

Tesla has never been a bargain .This did not stop it from going up 100x. I don't think Amazon has ever been cheap either.

alfalfasprout 4y ago
Big difference between Tesla and Amazon though is Amazon has built a big moat via its logistics operation. Even if workers unionized and their costs went up the economies of scale they have are extremely difficult to be competitive with unless you're walmart. Tesla has some impressive factories being built but at the end of the day batteries are the limiting factor and the other automakers are catching up. Not to mention the QC is awful for teslas compared to traditional car manufacturers.

Animats 4y ago

“an acceleration of software-related profit.” Yeah, there are car people thinking they can get the margins Apple does. These are the people who came up with heated car seat subscriptions. I once went to an IoT meetup, and the Samsung guy was touting a refrigerator with a built-in tablet. For more than the cost of a refrigerator and a tablet. That margin didn't last. (Are people actually paying $15,000 for Tesla's Fake Self Driving?)

aprdm 4y ago

I will never buy or use anything that Musk touches again.

metadat 4y ago

Archive link: https://archive.ph/vfqOZ https://archive.ph/vfqOZ

briandw 4y ago

Elon's antics and politics are causing problems. IMHO the politics don't change Tesla huge lead in the EV space. Seems like people are conflating their hatred of Elon with Teslas potential as a company. None of the other car makers can produce EVs at a profit. Tesla has very high margins on their cars and are continuing to reduce their production costs. They have the following advantages: 1) Most efficient use of batteries (kWh per distance) 2) Most extensive charging network 3) Contracts for battery minerals, and battery supply contracts Once the the 4680 dry electrode process, structural battery pack and castings for the new Model Y and 3 are worked out and ramped, their manufacturing mote with be even bigger. I'm ignoring the FSD software, even though they are in the best position to pull that off. It's still too far off.

hedora 4y ago
1) Tesla's drivetrain's kWh per distance is the best, but only by 10% or so. That's not enough to be a deal breaker for the other brands. Body style selection completely dominates 10% drive train efficiency, and Tesla is rapidly falling behind there. 2) The Tesla charging network seems less extensive in silicon valley than the multiple competing networks. Also, Tesla is advertising that they'll open it up to all other manufacturers (at least in the US) really soon, so to the extent you believe Tesla can still deliver stuff, the charging network is not a competitive advantage. On top of that, the Biden infrastructure plan is subsidizing standard chargers, so the proprietary Tesla charging port is turning into a competitive disadvantage. 3) I agree that Tesla still has an advantage in terms of production ramp, but this is eroding too. BofA is projecting Tesla's market share will be in the low teens within a few years. Assuming their analysts aren't idiots, this implies the other manufactures have been able to secure battery sources. Regarding FSD: I strongly prefer the jog wheel computer + physical buttons in my BMW over Tesla's touch screens, and that's comparing features that exist. Other manufacturers have a bigger software functionality gap, from what I've heard, but that's not unique. Most manufacturers have auto-braking and lane keeping, which is most of what FSD has delivered so far. Regarding the rest of the company: Apparently, they pulled out of solar installs. Anecdotally, all the tesla powerwall licensed contractors around here hate supporting them (poor reliability), and point homeowners to LG on the low end or Enphase on the high end.

brodouevencode 4y ago

This is now an Elon-hate post.

user568439 4y ago

I think most comments ignore that Tesla is making much more profit for each car sold than its competitors. I didn’t make the math but I remember Tesla margin being around 20% while average in industry is quite below 10%. Tesla is increasing production and keeping its margin while competitors are still having problems to catch up. Now they produce comparable EVs but still with much less margin. Also Semi seems to be quite a game changer that will keep Tesla ahead in another market for quite a while

generj 4y ago
Good point about margin. I imagine a good chunk of that margin is from eliminating dealers from their sales model. Even with the higher margin, Tesla would need an insanely higher volume to justify their market cap. It’s never going to reach those volumes. I also suspect Tesla will not be able to maintain all of their margin as they face increased competition. Some of that margin doubtlessly comes from selling their FSD - and I think it’s unclear if they will be able to keep selling that at a premium as other car makers catch up and/or regulators investigate some advertising claims around it. Tesla’s highest margins appear to be in China, where operations are distinctly delicate for someone owning a large social media company. The Semi may legitimately make a difference; we’ll have to see how many they are able to produce and their market uptake. There are going to be other competitors in that space who are more aligned to the trucking industry. The current Tesla Semi seems to be a niche for short haul runs (which is still a big segment).