6 ms·

Mocked And Misunderstood

38 points by 8bitliving 15y ago

colinm 15y ago
KickStarter is gonna be big? I kinda thought is was already a success.
- tricolon 15y ago
  We live in a bubble. Does your mother know about KickStarter? Does she understand it? Has she used it?
  - jroseattle 15y ago
    Depends on your definition of successful, I suppose. My mother doesn't know shinola about Dropbox, yet I'd say they're successful.
Tichy 15y ago
OK, but I suspect that is more of a superstition thing, like "on a full moon more babies are born" - people tend to remember the births on the full moon, but there are not really more babies. Likewise it might be more memorable if a mocked company becomes successful.
gnufs 15y ago
At the end of the linked MSNBC video, the reporter (Kate Snow) is arguing that nobody is policing the pledged projects and that she could theoretically "go on there and say I'm gonna raise money to make a record album and then get all the money. And, if I never make a record album, nobody knows any different." Is that really so with Kickstarter?
- yummyfajitas 15y ago
  Yes. To be listed on a public stock exchange (NASDAQ, NYSE, etc) a company must be extensively audited (e.g., "does this factory really exist? lets go look") and is subject to various regulations (e.g. Sarbox). When Chuggy G. raises money for an album on kickstarter, you might be surprised to discover that Accenture does not actually audit her.
- vectorpush 15y ago
  There are scammers just like on ebay or any other site where money is exchanged, and in a way the nature of the site sort of implies risk because you're essentially investing in the development of a product, it's like a crowdsource VC, but you can filter through the noise and find interesting ideas with inventors who demonstrate their knowledge of the engineering with high quality videos, previous experience and prototypes.
Nate75Sanders 15y ago
I think we have some problems with causation here. Being mocked and misunderstood seems neither necessary nor sufficient to making it big. I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or something. This really seems more like an emotional reaction to negative press than Fred's normal well-thought-out posts. Also, is Twitter profitable yet? That gets asked way too much, but I still don't know the answer yet.
- acslater00 15y ago
  The term you're looking for is "survivor bias." We remember the startups that were mocked but became breakout successes. We don't remember the 1000 startups that were mocked because they were terrible ideas, and failed because of it.
  - rwmj 15y ago
    This Carl Sagan[1] quote is apt ... "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." [1] Apparently he really did say it too: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced
    - fredwilson 15y ago
      that's a great quote
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  > I think we have some problems with causation here. Hell, there's even a problem with correlation here. We've all seen plenty of crap that is mocked and misunderstood that sank to the bottom of the sea without fanfare.
- munin 15y ago
  I mean, everyone made fun of groupon and zynga, and ... is this a clever ploy to try and get some sagging stock up?
PaulHoule 15y ago
I've come to this conclusion. When I was in graduate school I was timid. If I had an idea that people didn't get right away, I wouldn't stick with it. Today if I'm working on something and people don't think I'm crazy, I think I'm wasting my time. If everybody understands the value of something, you're getting in too late.
MrMatters 15y ago
If your business is "mocked and misunderstood," it isn't guaranteed to fail. It's not anymore likely to succeed because of that though...
funkah 15y ago
I have to say, I do get a certain kick out of seeing the success of things I use, which started out being ridiculed. Twitter is an excellent example -- in its earlier days it really was something special, but people mocked it in the manner he describes. And of course now it's indispensable. Basically everything Apple made in the last 10 years or so would be another example. I think it's because to ridicule this things is to imply that their users are essentially idiots, whereas the one doing the ridiculing is a free-thinking skeptic. Then, slowly, you watch them all get iPods and Macbooks and Twitter accounts...
sathishmanohar 15y ago
One thing Fred missed to say is, while getting mocked and misunderstood may be the pattern (pattern derived from twitter alone (I kid you not, twitter was the only example in the article)), it doesn't mean all mocked and misunderstood companies will be successful.
- fredwilson 15y ago
  you are correct. that is the flaw in the post
david927 15y ago
I'm surprised at how few here are understanding what Fred is saying. He's saying if it's so far out of people's context that they have a hard time understanding it, that you might be changing the context to something completely new. You might have a whole new ballpark.
diego 15y ago
So many cognitive biases here that I had to write a blog post. http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-biases http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-bi...
moocow01 15y ago
Personally, the most mocked and misunderstood web service I can think of within the last couple years is Chatroullette. I guess this rule passed over them.
- earbitscom 15y ago
  I would say AirBNB is one of the most mocked and misunderstood companies in the last couple years and it's a great example of a breakout success. A whole lot of people thought nobody would invite strangers into their house.
  - icebraining 15y ago
    Which is a bit ridiculous, considering Couch Surfing has been doing that for years, way before AirBNB launched.
Maro 15y ago
Twitter has established itself as the social PR tool on the web. Any brand on the web that wants to signal effort and understanding of the game must have a Twitter account with daily updates. The value for marketers is clear. It's an inexpensive way to build organic traction. The value for individual users, who are the product, is less clear. Twitter is immensely noisy, and is becoming more noisy as it's use as a PR tool increases. It's not clear to me why, overall, it's worth it for people to read their Twitter feeds. I certainly don't read mine, I just push out a tweet a day to signal I'm trendy. For example, Fred Wilson's Twitter updates are links to his blog posts plus some (for me) out of context public messages to people I don't know, ie. junk (for me). I might as well unsubscribe and add his RSS to Google Reader and save myself the noise. Just did.
gry 15y ago
The economist Lant Pritchett notes big ideas follow this pattern: silly -> controversial -> progressive -> obvious http://kottke.org/09/06/big-ideas-from-silly-to-obvious http://kottke.org/09/06/big-ideas-from-silly-to-obvious Fred's post touches on the silly part. I haven't been able to find much more of Lant's model other than the slide Kottke links to.
majani 15y ago
I'm currently mocking and misunderstanding Foursquare and Turntable.fm. Which startups are you mocking right now?
- fredwilson 15y ago
  That makes me feel better about those investments. Thanks for sharing that

38 points by 8bitliving 15y ago

colinm 15y ago

KickStarter is gonna be big? I kinda thought is was already a success.

tricolon 15y ago
We live in a bubble. Does your mother know about KickStarter? Does she understand it? Has she used it?
- jroseattle 15y ago
  Depends on your definition of successful, I suppose. My mother doesn't know shinola about Dropbox, yet I'd say they're successful.

Tichy 15y ago

OK, but I suspect that is more of a superstition thing, like "on a full moon more babies are born" - people tend to remember the births on the full moon, but there are not really more babies. Likewise it might be more memorable if a mocked company becomes successful.

gnufs 15y ago

At the end of the linked MSNBC video, the reporter (Kate Snow) is arguing that nobody is policing the pledged projects and that she could theoretically "go on there and say I'm gonna raise money to make a record album and then get all the money. And, if I never make a record album, nobody knows any different." Is that really so with Kickstarter?

yummyfajitas 15y ago
Yes. To be listed on a public stock exchange (NASDAQ, NYSE, etc) a company must be extensively audited (e.g., "does this factory really exist? lets go look") and is subject to various regulations (e.g. Sarbox). When Chuggy G. raises money for an album on kickstarter, you might be surprised to discover that Accenture does not actually audit her.
vectorpush 15y ago
There are scammers just like on ebay or any other site where money is exchanged, and in a way the nature of the site sort of implies risk because you're essentially investing in the development of a product, it's like a crowdsource VC, but you can filter through the noise and find interesting ideas with inventors who demonstrate their knowledge of the engineering with high quality videos, previous experience and prototypes.

Nate75Sanders 15y ago

I think we have some problems with causation here. Being mocked and misunderstood seems neither necessary nor sufficient to making it big. I think Fred is arguing that it's often necessary or quasi-necessary or something. This really seems more like an emotional reaction to negative press than Fred's normal well-thought-out posts. Also, is Twitter profitable yet? That gets asked way too much, but I still don't know the answer yet.

acslater00 15y ago
The term you're looking for is "survivor bias." We remember the startups that were mocked but became breakout successes. We don't remember the 1000 startups that were mocked because they were terrible ideas, and failed because of it.
- rwmj 15y ago
  This Carl Sagan[1] quote is apt ... "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." [1] Apparently he really did say it too: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan#Sourced
  - fredwilson 15y ago
    that's a great quote
jpdoctor 15y ago
> I think we have some problems with causation here. Hell, there's even a problem with correlation here. We've all seen plenty of crap that is mocked and misunderstood that sank to the bottom of the sea without fanfare.
munin 15y ago
I mean, everyone made fun of groupon and zynga, and ... is this a clever ploy to try and get some sagging stock up?

PaulHoule 15y ago

I've come to this conclusion. When I was in graduate school I was timid. If I had an idea that people didn't get right away, I wouldn't stick with it. Today if I'm working on something and people don't think I'm crazy, I think I'm wasting my time. If everybody understands the value of something, you're getting in too late.

MrMatters 15y ago

If your business is "mocked and misunderstood," it isn't guaranteed to fail. It's not anymore likely to succeed because of that though...

funkah 15y ago

I have to say, I do get a certain kick out of seeing the success of things I use, which started out being ridiculed. Twitter is an excellent example -- in its earlier days it really was something special, but people mocked it in the manner he describes. And of course now it's indispensable. Basically everything Apple made in the last 10 years or so would be another example. I think it's because to ridicule this things is to imply that their users are essentially idiots, whereas the one doing the ridiculing is a free-thinking skeptic. Then, slowly, you watch them all get iPods and Macbooks and Twitter accounts...

sathishmanohar 15y ago

One thing Fred missed to say is, while getting mocked and misunderstood may be the pattern (pattern derived from twitter alone (I kid you not, twitter was the only example in the article)), it doesn't mean all mocked and misunderstood companies will be successful.

fredwilson 15y ago
you are correct. that is the flaw in the post

david927 15y ago

I'm surprised at how few here are understanding what Fred is saying. He's saying if it's so far out of people's context that they have a hard time understanding it, that you might be changing the context to something completely new. You might have a whole new ballpark.

diego 15y ago

So many cognitive biases here that I had to write a blog post. http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-biases http://dbasch.posterous.com/vcs-also-succumb-to-cognitive-bi...

moocow01 15y ago

Personally, the most mocked and misunderstood web service I can think of within the last couple years is Chatroullette. I guess this rule passed over them.

earbitscom 15y ago
I would say AirBNB is one of the most mocked and misunderstood companies in the last couple years and it's a great example of a breakout success. A whole lot of people thought nobody would invite strangers into their house.
- icebraining 15y ago
  Which is a bit ridiculous, considering Couch Surfing has been doing that for years, way before AirBNB launched.

Maro 15y ago

Twitter has established itself as the social PR tool on the web. Any brand on the web that wants to signal effort and understanding of the game must have a Twitter account with daily updates. The value for marketers is clear. It's an inexpensive way to build organic traction. The value for individual users, who are the product, is less clear. Twitter is immensely noisy, and is becoming more noisy as it's use as a PR tool increases. It's not clear to me why, overall, it's worth it for people to read their Twitter feeds. I certainly don't read mine, I just push out a tweet a day to signal I'm trendy. For example, Fred Wilson's Twitter updates are links to his blog posts plus some (for me) out of context public messages to people I don't know, ie. junk (for me). I might as well unsubscribe and add his RSS to Google Reader and save myself the noise. Just did.

gry 15y ago

The economist Lant Pritchett notes big ideas follow this pattern: silly -> controversial -> progressive -> obvious http://kottke.org/09/06/big-ideas-from-silly-to-obvious http://kottke.org/09/06/big-ideas-from-silly-to-obvious Fred's post touches on the silly part. I haven't been able to find much more of Lant's model other than the slide Kottke links to.

majani 15y ago

I'm currently mocking and misunderstanding Foursquare and Turntable.fm. Which startups are you mocking right now?

fredwilson 15y ago
That makes me feel better about those investments. Thanks for sharing that