3 ms·
http://predictionbook.com/ http://predictionbook.com/ is handy for keeping track of predictions, and getting feedback about your overconfidence/underconfidence.
by ivank 15y ago
http://predictionbook.com/ http://predictionbook.com/ is handy for keeping track of predictions, and getting feedback about your overconfidence/underconfidence. (It generates a graph of your your confidence vs. accuracy - '90% sure' should happen 90% of the time.) Outside of specialist sites, you generally see no confidence values attached to predictions, and vagueness that makes judging them difficult or impossible.
Of possible interest:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/7z9/1001_predictionbook_nights/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/7z9/1001_predictionbook_nights/
http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8dx/predictionbook_a_short_note/ http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8dx/predictionbook_a_sh...
- nyellin 15y agoDon't forget InTrade. http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
- gwern 15y agoYou have to get money into Intrade, the fees are bad for small sums like a hundred bucks or so, you can't do long-term predictions profitably (foregone interest/investment return eats you alive), and you can only bet on the preselected set of markets - assuming they're even liquid enough to bet on. So for predictions like we're discussing here, PredictionBook is way better. (Sometimes using real-money doesn't make things better.)