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Australia: Excess deaths in 2022 'incredibly high' at 13 percent

52 points by VagueMag 4y ago

anenefan 4y ago
Near the end the "conundrum" is answered ... the article only exists to stir the pot ... yes if the initial response to the pandemic on the part of the "trump wannabe party" was an appalling response ... certain media should understand there will be a lag in great number of people who didn't seek out earlier treatment / intervention, and stop trying to paint the fools (scum depending on view) that were in charge as totally innocent and making noises about those who were voted in to replace them. This high is from poor actions two years in the making. A pipe at near capacity isn't meant to run way above capacity for long. "“One of the other important factors is we see higher non-Covid deaths when there are Covid deaths,” she said. “Part of it could be people are not getting healthcare when they need it, particularly emergency care, or there could be more undiagnosed Covid than we know about.” “One of the other important factors is we see higher non-Covid deaths when there are Covid deaths,” she said. “Part of it could be people are not getting healthcare when they need it, particularly emergency care, or there could be more undiagnosed Covid than we know about.”"
wellthatsawrap2 4y ago
refurb 4y ago
It’s going to be really interesting for epidemiologists to analyze all this data. “Covid deaths” is an incredibly subjective data point and it’s clear countries don’t all measure it the same. But deaths are deaths, so comparing “excess mortality” during and after Covid will give a much more objective picture of how different approaches worked. But it will be important to look at excess mortality for years after Covid. As the article points out, if restrictions limited access to medical care (or just caused people to delay seeking it) the ramifications will take years to show up.
- derbOac 4y ago
  One problem is a lot of things are moving in tandem. So for example, a lot of places are getting hit with very serious seasonal infectious disease, and Australia would have gone through that earlier. So is that delayed effects of postponed care from two years ago, or a rebound in seasonal infectious disease due to who knows what? There are ways of modeling this all but it's going to be really challenging.
  - nhinck2 4y ago
    Should have linked the article directly instead of the news article. https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-working-group-excess-mortality-continues-in-august-2022/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-... It actually has a great summary at the bottom about the probable causes of excess deaths to date.
    - ngcc_hk 4y ago
      And based on timing it might not be vaccine related
  - anenefan 4y ago
    While covid (or the covid spike toxicity) no doubt is playing a role in the background, most is just a hospital system that already stretched. it might be not evident to people further afield, but a lot of aussies don't like to travel an hour or two to a larger hospital's A&E, put up with the long lines of people waiting, along with the waiting room being a crowded space just full of nasty bugs -- it's no hard question why people are making the mistake presently to avoid getting early treatment. So many "smaller medical issues" are on a huge backlog ... the problem is not the present Federal or State govt fault wither, penny pinchers had been busy many many years before, that wave of BS was still being dealt with before covid arrived to make a hard situation worse. If "someone" fixes it so all the hospitals have capacity, eventually the next penny wise pound foolish crowd will rip it out again. I speak as an idiot who in Feb 2020 got the start of a lot of strange symptoms which I now recognised were probably covid-19, after a bit of man flu, BAD chest pains, breathless, could hardly pick my feet up coupled with very sore hips, which progressed couple weeks later to hypoxia for what felt like months but was only 3 weeks, red spots on skin, I noted I seemed to be bruising myself while I slept or somehow the day before without realising, hand numbness. Feeling a bit better a month after that getting a cut while walking in the bush, wrapping it with my shirt and continued, but getting home after I felt not too much blood would end up on the floor of a vehicle which wasn't mine, noted it still had not clotted after about 4 hours though it did congeal in the shirt and the shoe. Both the Bad chest pains and cut were something which I should have ventured to A&E to get treated ... in both instances I was stupid and opted not to bother my local hospital. I still haven't to date, as they're still a bit swamped and obviously the time to go was both times something was serious and I might not have waited for a few hours. My chest pains have eased but I know at some point I need to get it checked out.
KingLancelot 4y ago
[dead]
sn0w_crash 4y ago
Am genuinely curious if people find out that this is vaccine-related, what would the implications of that be? (I do not think this is, I am just curious)
- ngcc_hk 4y ago
  Read the original article which actually highlight reasons that are likely and which are not. The vaccine whilst we are in mind is not, due to misfit of timing not because if any deep state.
jesterson 4y ago
Hopefully it encourages someone to have an objective investigation into vaccines and "vaccines". OZ was particularly hard on lockdowns and vaxx.
- JellyYelly 4y ago
  Our excess deaths were extremely low while the rest of the west were letting it rip in 2020~2021. Most people I know in Australia have only recently gotten covid for the first time.
  - 543g43g43 4y ago
    >the rest of the west were letting it rip in 2020~2021 That's funny. As restrictions started to lift during 2021 (UK/Wales), some complained that the government was now letting it rip. Just shows - anyone more cautious than you is needlessly scared, and anyone less cautious is an idiot.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    Indeed. But isn't Australia one of the most vaccinated countries? Australia wanted to lockdown until they could vaccinate virtually everyone. With 97.3% [0] of people aged 16+ with at least 1 dose they can claim "Mission accomplished" on that front. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccination-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccina... How do you square these two things?
    - viraptor 4y ago
      Some extra info: Aussies got vaccinated relatively easily on, but the protection gets weaker with time. This + barely about announcements about new vaccines / second booster (14M>5M drop) + new strains which are more resistant to the original vaccines are definitely messing up the numbers this year compared to the previous. We're taking now with the benefit of knowing the future. The lockdowns kept the numbers low for a long time and vaccination kept the original strains away as well by the time we did the "mission success".
explodingman 4y ago
The report divides deaths into three types: those who died of covid, those who died with covid and excess deaths. The excess deaths are more numerous than the with covid deaths. Weekly fluctuations in excess deaths correlates strongly with covid deaths, so people who want to pretend that the excess deaths are due to something other than covid (ie, vaccinations or lockdown measures) are barking up the wrong tree. https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-working-group-excess-mortality-continues-in-august-2022/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-...
- 543g43g43 4y ago
  The wider point is that, despite some of the most draconian lockdowns on earth, Australia hasn't escaped Covid.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    Wasn't that supposed to buy them time until they got everyone vaccinated?
    - slaw 4y ago
      It looks like Sweden approach by not doing lockdowns was better. https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...
    - 543g43g43 4y ago
      Tell me about it. I was told many times that we should have "locked down harder", like "sensible countries" including Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea.
sfusato 4y ago
This is certainly worrying to some degree given that Australia wanted to buy time by isolating itself from the rest of the world until they could vaccinate virtually everyone. And with 97.3% of people aged 16+ with at least 1 dose [0] they can claim "Mission accomplished" on that front. At this point, either the vaccine works as claimed, in which case we shouldn't be seeing these numbers, or it doesn't. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccination-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccina...
- anenefan 4y ago
  Of course the vaccine helped but their effectiveness wanes after a few months. Additionally, even being vaccinated, catching covid can still take a small toll on the body. I know people who were up to date with their covid shots, but have caught covid-19 strains three times, (in other words they got tested to confirm) more often they wear clear signs of the impact having it so frequently has had on them. The covid spike toxicity due to the spike being present from being administered "most" vaccines and covid-19 itself, is my guess for the reason there's similar problems in both groups, albeit, to a very much smaller extent with vaccinated people. I know first hand a couple of people who reported a serious issue with the vaccines, in particular one was a nurse who's got a couple of young kids, but back at work, working at the local hospital, telling me she now needs to be fitted with a pace maker after she reacted to her vaccine shot. My next door neighbour who's slightly older in her late 30s, possibly early 40s, was fit, not fat, was anti vaxx, caught covid a few months back iirc, had a mild case in so much as she was handed medication and asked to ride it out back at her own residence, and afterwards with about the same mind set on vaccines ... I hadn't seen her in a bit, spoke to her last week, she's a couple month after open heart surgery ... very pro vaxx now ...
  - collyw 4y ago
    Negative efficiency after 6 to 9 months, right around then Scotland, England and Canada stopped publishing results. Is the plan endless boosters forever more?
- joeman1000 4y ago
mharig 4y ago
Exactly as to be expected, when a horde of stupid monkeys (humans) tries to confine a respiratory virus. Damaging the immune system with lockdowns (less uvb, less activity, fear), mask mandates (The only big studie that shows some positive effect has been made in Bangladesh. Because the medical level and corruption level are known to be superior to the industrialized nations?) and dubious vaccines takes its toll.
- Felemiti 4y ago
  You clearly need to step back and reevaluate your sources. There have been plenty of studies done with / in regards of masks. Also I'm totally lost on why you would ever rant on masks. They are easy to wear and do relatively good in comparison to the effort of wearing one. I also find it tremendously shitty to write this in a way that it was always clear from the beginning how this new Virus would interact with us. Why people like you think it's reasonable at all NOT TO BE careful for a totally NEW UnKNOWN airborne virus? This is srsly your first response to a unknown new thread? Ignoring it? And the situation at the beginning with alpha then beta and then delta was constantly changing. And I really hope you are at least as opiniated about all the other scams and not just your 'covid scam' like homeopathic 'medicin' and other things like religion.
  - slaw 4y ago
    It is you who clearly need to step back and look at Sweden who didn't follow WHO lockdowns and it is doing better than Australia.
    - Felemiti 4y ago
      Sweden has 10 Million people in a small area and have totally different weather and culture than Australia. Australia has 25 Million people. The Netherlands for example had a much more open COVID strategy than Germany but culture wise there were much less weird / crazy people spewing miss information than what happens in Germany.
      - 4y ago
collyw 4y ago
Most likely the "vaccine" is at least partially responsible. Most vaccines take around ten years to develop, most of that time being in testing for adverse events. Given that no one is actually attempting to monitor this, and that health authorities worldwide have tried their best to destroy the control group this seems like a reasonable assumption to make, or at the very least something that should be investigated. But it isn't. There are a couple of subreddits full of stores about vaccine problems. I see the only comment in this thread asking about the percentage vaccinated / boosted is marked as [dead]. Why? It's a pretty reasonable question given the way the vaccine rollout has been handled.
- slaw 4y ago
  Questioning lockdowns and covid vaccinations get downvotes on HN. Also until very recently you would be downvoted for questioning genius mind of Elon Musk.
  - collyw 4y ago
    True believers on here. Naming these shots a "vaccine" was a stroke of marketing genius, but thoroughly dishonest. Most of the public assume something along the lines of "one and done" when it comes to a vaccines, not constant boosters followed by still catching covid multiple times, and they promise that they are "working".
    - slaw 4y ago
      It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.
Andaith 4y ago
So, excess deaths were always going to be higher. Covid is a new virus that's circulating in addition to all the existing viruses(virii?) that circulated throughout the population previously, and it's also significantly more harmful than the existing viruses. So what's interesting here is: 1) The size of the jump in excess deaths. 2) Not all the excess deaths are attributable to Covid. > That equates to an extra 18,671 deaths. Of those, only 7727 were attributed to Covid – or 41 per cent – leaving 10,944 non-Covid excess deaths. So, 41% of the excess deaths were attributed to covid, leaving 59% of the jump in excess deaths to be things that were already killing us, but for some reason are killing us _more_ this year. > So far in 2022, deaths due to dementia are up 18.9 per cent, diabetes up 20.8 per cent, cancer up 6.1 per cent, and ischaemic heart disease up 3.3 per cent, according to ABS data. and all the things that: 1) aren't covid 2) are increased excess deaths appear to be things that covid _makes worse_. I don't have any scientific papers or news articles to hand or anything, but I've been reading for the last few years now that covid impacts the brain(brain fog in long covid), hits overweight people & diabetics harder, causes heart problems, etc etc. Which is the simplistic take. but I do wonder if there's anything more to it, that I can't think of at all? Also, no idea about increased cancers. Delayed treatment? Less effective treatment or diagnosis due to covid precautions? something completely unrelated to covid? Any thoughts there?

52 points by VagueMag 4y ago

Near the end the "conundrum" is answered ... the article only exists to stir the pot ... yes if the initial response to the pandemic on the part of the "trump wannabe party" was an appalling response ... certain media should understand there will be a lag in great number of people who didn't seek out earlier treatment / intervention, and stop trying to paint the fools (scum depending on view) that were in charge as totally innocent and making noises about those who were voted in to replace them. This high is from poor actions two years in the making. A pipe at near capacity isn't meant to run way above capacity for long. "“One of the other important factors is we see higher non-Covid deaths when there are Covid deaths,” she said. “Part of it could be people are not getting healthcare when they need it, particularly emergency care, or there could be more undiagnosed Covid than we know about.” “One of the other important factors is we see higher non-Covid deaths when there are Covid deaths,” she said. “Part of it could be people are not getting healthcare when they need it, particularly emergency care, or there could be more undiagnosed Covid than we know about.”"

wellthatsawrap2 4y ago

refurb 4y ago

It’s going to be really interesting for epidemiologists to analyze all this data. “Covid deaths” is an incredibly subjective data point and it’s clear countries don’t all measure it the same. But deaths are deaths, so comparing “excess mortality” during and after Covid will give a much more objective picture of how different approaches worked. But it will be important to look at excess mortality for years after Covid. As the article points out, if restrictions limited access to medical care (or just caused people to delay seeking it) the ramifications will take years to show up.

derbOac 4y ago
One problem is a lot of things are moving in tandem. So for example, a lot of places are getting hit with very serious seasonal infectious disease, and Australia would have gone through that earlier. So is that delayed effects of postponed care from two years ago, or a rebound in seasonal infectious disease due to who knows what? There are ways of modeling this all but it's going to be really challenging.
- nhinck2 4y ago
  Should have linked the article directly instead of the news article. https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-working-group-excess-mortality-continues-in-august-2022/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-... It actually has a great summary at the bottom about the probable causes of excess deaths to date.
  - ngcc_hk 4y ago
    And based on timing it might not be vaccine related
- anenefan 4y ago
  While covid (or the covid spike toxicity) no doubt is playing a role in the background, most is just a hospital system that already stretched. it might be not evident to people further afield, but a lot of aussies don't like to travel an hour or two to a larger hospital's A&E, put up with the long lines of people waiting, along with the waiting room being a crowded space just full of nasty bugs -- it's no hard question why people are making the mistake presently to avoid getting early treatment. So many "smaller medical issues" are on a huge backlog ... the problem is not the present Federal or State govt fault wither, penny pinchers had been busy many many years before, that wave of BS was still being dealt with before covid arrived to make a hard situation worse. If "someone" fixes it so all the hospitals have capacity, eventually the next penny wise pound foolish crowd will rip it out again. I speak as an idiot who in Feb 2020 got the start of a lot of strange symptoms which I now recognised were probably covid-19, after a bit of man flu, BAD chest pains, breathless, could hardly pick my feet up coupled with very sore hips, which progressed couple weeks later to hypoxia for what felt like months but was only 3 weeks, red spots on skin, I noted I seemed to be bruising myself while I slept or somehow the day before without realising, hand numbness. Feeling a bit better a month after that getting a cut while walking in the bush, wrapping it with my shirt and continued, but getting home after I felt not too much blood would end up on the floor of a vehicle which wasn't mine, noted it still had not clotted after about 4 hours though it did congeal in the shirt and the shoe. Both the Bad chest pains and cut were something which I should have ventured to A&E to get treated ... in both instances I was stupid and opted not to bother my local hospital. I still haven't to date, as they're still a bit swamped and obviously the time to go was both times something was serious and I might not have waited for a few hours. My chest pains have eased but I know at some point I need to get it checked out.

KingLancelot 4y ago

[dead]

sn0w_crash 4y ago

Am genuinely curious if people find out that this is vaccine-related, what would the implications of that be? (I do not think this is, I am just curious)

ngcc_hk 4y ago
Read the original article which actually highlight reasons that are likely and which are not. The vaccine whilst we are in mind is not, due to misfit of timing not because if any deep state.

jesterson 4y ago

Hopefully it encourages someone to have an objective investigation into vaccines and "vaccines". OZ was particularly hard on lockdowns and vaxx.

JellyYelly 4y ago
Our excess deaths were extremely low while the rest of the west were letting it rip in 2020~2021. Most people I know in Australia have only recently gotten covid for the first time.
- 543g43g43 4y ago
  >the rest of the west were letting it rip in 2020~2021 That's funny. As restrictions started to lift during 2021 (UK/Wales), some complained that the government was now letting it rip. Just shows - anyone more cautious than you is needlessly scared, and anyone less cautious is an idiot.
- sfusato 4y ago
  Indeed. But isn't Australia one of the most vaccinated countries? Australia wanted to lockdown until they could vaccinate virtually everyone. With 97.3% [0] of people aged 16+ with at least 1 dose they can claim "Mission accomplished" on that front. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccination-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccina... How do you square these two things?
  - viraptor 4y ago
    Some extra info: Aussies got vaccinated relatively easily on, but the protection gets weaker with time. This + barely about announcements about new vaccines / second booster (14M>5M drop) + new strains which are more resistant to the original vaccines are definitely messing up the numbers this year compared to the previous. We're taking now with the benefit of knowing the future. The lockdowns kept the numbers low for a long time and vaccination kept the original strains away as well by the time we did the "mission success".

explodingman 4y ago

The report divides deaths into three types: those who died of covid, those who died with covid and excess deaths. The excess deaths are more numerous than the with covid deaths. Weekly fluctuations in excess deaths correlates strongly with covid deaths, so people who want to pretend that the excess deaths are due to something other than covid (ie, vaccinations or lockdown measures) are barking up the wrong tree. https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-working-group-excess-mortality-continues-in-august-2022/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/12/07/covid-19-mortality-...

543g43g43 4y ago
The wider point is that, despite some of the most draconian lockdowns on earth, Australia hasn't escaped Covid.
- sfusato 4y ago
  Wasn't that supposed to buy them time until they got everyone vaccinated?
  - slaw 4y ago
    It looks like Sweden approach by not doing lockdowns was better. https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...
  - 543g43g43 4y ago
    Tell me about it. I was told many times that we should have "locked down harder", like "sensible countries" including Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea.

sfusato 4y ago

This is certainly worrying to some degree given that Australia wanted to buy time by isolating itself from the rest of the world until they could vaccinate virtually everyone. And with 97.3% of people aged 16+ with at least 1 dose [0] they can claim "Mission accomplished" on that front. At this point, either the vaccine works as claimed, in which case we shouldn't be seeing these numbers, or it doesn't. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccination-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/vaccina...

anenefan 4y ago
Of course the vaccine helped but their effectiveness wanes after a few months. Additionally, even being vaccinated, catching covid can still take a small toll on the body. I know people who were up to date with their covid shots, but have caught covid-19 strains three times, (in other words they got tested to confirm) more often they wear clear signs of the impact having it so frequently has had on them. The covid spike toxicity due to the spike being present from being administered "most" vaccines and covid-19 itself, is my guess for the reason there's similar problems in both groups, albeit, to a very much smaller extent with vaccinated people. I know first hand a couple of people who reported a serious issue with the vaccines, in particular one was a nurse who's got a couple of young kids, but back at work, working at the local hospital, telling me she now needs to be fitted with a pace maker after she reacted to her vaccine shot. My next door neighbour who's slightly older in her late 30s, possibly early 40s, was fit, not fat, was anti vaxx, caught covid a few months back iirc, had a mild case in so much as she was handed medication and asked to ride it out back at her own residence, and afterwards with about the same mind set on vaccines ... I hadn't seen her in a bit, spoke to her last week, she's a couple month after open heart surgery ... very pro vaxx now ...
- collyw 4y ago
  Negative efficiency after 6 to 9 months, right around then Scotland, England and Canada stopped publishing results. Is the plan endless boosters forever more?
joeman1000 4y ago

mharig 4y ago

Exactly as to be expected, when a horde of stupid monkeys (humans) tries to confine a respiratory virus. Damaging the immune system with lockdowns (less uvb, less activity, fear), mask mandates (The only big studie that shows some positive effect has been made in Bangladesh. Because the medical level and corruption level are known to be superior to the industrialized nations?) and dubious vaccines takes its toll.

Felemiti 4y ago
You clearly need to step back and reevaluate your sources. There have been plenty of studies done with / in regards of masks. Also I'm totally lost on why you would ever rant on masks. They are easy to wear and do relatively good in comparison to the effort of wearing one. I also find it tremendously shitty to write this in a way that it was always clear from the beginning how this new Virus would interact with us. Why people like you think it's reasonable at all NOT TO BE careful for a totally NEW UnKNOWN airborne virus? This is srsly your first response to a unknown new thread? Ignoring it? And the situation at the beginning with alpha then beta and then delta was constantly changing. And I really hope you are at least as opiniated about all the other scams and not just your 'covid scam' like homeopathic 'medicin' and other things like religion.
- slaw 4y ago
  It is you who clearly need to step back and look at Sweden who didn't follow WHO lockdowns and it is doing better than Australia.
  - Felemiti 4y ago
    Sweden has 10 Million people in a small area and have totally different weather and culture than Australia. Australia has 25 Million people. The Netherlands for example had a much more open COVID strategy than Germany but culture wise there were much less weird / crazy people spewing miss information than what happens in Germany.
    - 4y ago

collyw 4y ago

Most likely the "vaccine" is at least partially responsible. Most vaccines take around ten years to develop, most of that time being in testing for adverse events. Given that no one is actually attempting to monitor this, and that health authorities worldwide have tried their best to destroy the control group this seems like a reasonable assumption to make, or at the very least something that should be investigated. But it isn't. There are a couple of subreddits full of stores about vaccine problems. I see the only comment in this thread asking about the percentage vaccinated / boosted is marked as [dead]. Why? It's a pretty reasonable question given the way the vaccine rollout has been handled.

slaw 4y ago
Questioning lockdowns and covid vaccinations get downvotes on HN. Also until very recently you would be downvoted for questioning genius mind of Elon Musk.
- collyw 4y ago
  True believers on here. Naming these shots a "vaccine" was a stroke of marketing genius, but thoroughly dishonest. Most of the public assume something along the lines of "one and done" when it comes to a vaccines, not constant boosters followed by still catching covid multiple times, and they promise that they are "working".
  - slaw 4y ago
    It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.

Andaith 4y ago

So, excess deaths were always going to be higher. Covid is a new virus that's circulating in addition to all the existing viruses(virii?) that circulated throughout the population previously, and it's also significantly more harmful than the existing viruses. So what's interesting here is: 1) The size of the jump in excess deaths. 2) Not all the excess deaths are attributable to Covid. > That equates to an extra 18,671 deaths. Of those, only 7727 were attributed to Covid – or 41 per cent – leaving 10,944 non-Covid excess deaths. So, 41% of the excess deaths were attributed to covid, leaving 59% of the jump in excess deaths to be things that were already killing us, but for some reason are killing us _more_ this year. > So far in 2022, deaths due to dementia are up 18.9 per cent, diabetes up 20.8 per cent, cancer up 6.1 per cent, and ischaemic heart disease up 3.3 per cent, according to ABS data. and all the things that: 1) aren't covid 2) are increased excess deaths appear to be things that covid _makes worse_. I don't have any scientific papers or news articles to hand or anything, but I've been reading for the last few years now that covid impacts the brain(brain fog in long covid), hits overweight people & diabetics harder, causes heart problems, etc etc. Which is the simplistic take. but I do wonder if there's anything more to it, that I can't think of at all? Also, no idea about increased cancers. Delayed treatment? Less effective treatment or diagnosis due to covid precautions? something completely unrelated to covid? Any thoughts there?