4 ms·

They did this with rare earth metals. The price rose 10x this year, and America put the mine in San Bernadino back into production pretty quickly. Wasn't the

They did this with rare earth metals. The price rose 10x this year, and America put the mine in San Bernadino back into production pretty quickly. Wasn't the end of the world.

3am 15y ago
The mine in San Bernadino isn't back in production. You're talking about Molycorp, and their Mountain Pass mine. It's scheduled for the end of next year (http://www.molycorp.com/AboutUs/ProjectPhoenix.aspx http://www.molycorp.com/AboutUs/ProjectPhoenix.aspx). And I believe that's with extensive federal loans or loan guarantees.
- daniel-cussen 15y ago
  The Mountain Pass mine is in San Bernadino county. Am I missing something?
  - 3am 15y ago
    No, I meant that Mountain Pass isn't going to be back in production until the end of next year. I should've said it more clearly.
wisty 15y ago
They did this with EVERYTHING. The costs of manufacturing are roughly 1/3rd labor, 1/3rd raw materials, and 1/3rd power. China subsidizes power and raw materials (through various means). If it weren't for that, Chinese stuff would be about 70% the cost of US stuff (assuming 10% the wages, equal productivity, and the same material and labor costs). Subsidizing stationary inputs (like roads, power, and pollution sinks) or stuff that's expensive to move (steel, coal, trained workers) is a way to force a country to industrialize. Subsidizing easily exported inputs (like rare earths) is less effective, as it just ends up in your competitors' final products.
sakai 15y ago
That's somewhat true. Prices rose tremendously across all rare earth metals, and they fallen back notably for some light metals.[1][2] That said, they remain high for heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), where China still dominates production.[3] (Mountain Pass is predominately a light rare earth element-producing mine). Bottom line: The rare earth story only partially supports your point. That said, the lead time for a new mine is 5+ years, and solar manufacturing lead times may be much lower (and thus barriers to entry also lower). [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/global/prices-of-rare-earth-metals-declining-sharply.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/global/prices-of-... [2] http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/cerium/ http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/cerium/ [3] http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/terbium/ http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/terbium/

They did this with rare earth metals. The price rose 10x this year, and America put the mine in San Bernadino back into production pretty quickly. Wasn't the end of the world.

3am 15y ago

The mine in San Bernadino isn't back in production. You're talking about Molycorp, and their Mountain Pass mine. It's scheduled for the end of next year (http://www.molycorp.com/AboutUs/ProjectPhoenix.aspx http://www.molycorp.com/AboutUs/ProjectPhoenix.aspx). And I believe that's with extensive federal loans or loan guarantees.

daniel-cussen 15y ago
The Mountain Pass mine is in San Bernadino county. Am I missing something?
- 3am 15y ago
  No, I meant that Mountain Pass isn't going to be back in production until the end of next year. I should've said it more clearly.

wisty 15y ago

They did this with EVERYTHING. The costs of manufacturing are roughly 1/3rd labor, 1/3rd raw materials, and 1/3rd power. China subsidizes power and raw materials (through various means). If it weren't for that, Chinese stuff would be about 70% the cost of US stuff (assuming 10% the wages, equal productivity, and the same material and labor costs). Subsidizing stationary inputs (like roads, power, and pollution sinks) or stuff that's expensive to move (steel, coal, trained workers) is a way to force a country to industrialize. Subsidizing easily exported inputs (like rare earths) is less effective, as it just ends up in your competitors' final products.

sakai 15y ago

That's somewhat true. Prices rose tremendously across all rare earth metals, and they fallen back notably for some light metals.[1][2] That said, they remain high for heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), where China still dominates production.[3] (Mountain Pass is predominately a light rare earth element-producing mine). Bottom line: The rare earth story only partially supports your point. That said, the lead time for a new mine is 5+ years, and solar manufacturing lead times may be much lower (and thus barriers to entry also lower). [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/global/prices-of-rare-earth-metals-declining-sharply.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/global/prices-of-... [2] http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/cerium/ http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/cerium/ [3] http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/terbium/ http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/terbium/