3 ms·

We will have lots of robots soon. AI is getting exponentially better. I expect GDP to go to levels we have never seen before. I'm not sure how long "AI summer"

We will have lots of robots soon. AI is getting exponentially better. I expect GDP to go to levels we have never seen before. I'm not sure how long "AI summer" will last before "AI winter"[1] hits but I think there will be many decades of incredible increases in wealth for the average person globally. [1] skynet or extreme centralization of power

Mistletoe 4y ago
Hmmm I have my doubts about that, sounds like Cathie Wood talk. How will AI increase GDP? Seems like it could reduce GDP just as easily by putting all the writers, artists, coders, out of a job. This estimate is much more modest for AI increases by 2030. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publicat... >The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost) I think of this article when I hear about decades of incredible growth on top of the already many decades of incredible growth. https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/ https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/
- osigurdson 4y ago
  It is pretty simple, really. The size of the economy, GDP and other metrics don't really matter. The real measure is how many hours does a person need to trade to get a particular product or service. If that goes to zero, we will be in good shape even if GDP is high or low. Nice to see that the "this-cant-go-on" author knows how to calculate 1.02^N and shocked themselves when typing a somewhat large N into the calculator. The thing they forgot is the size of the economy doesn't mean anything on its own. It isn't a physical thing that will take up all of the space in the universe eventually as the author seems to fear.
  - osigurdson 4y ago
    PS - Cathy Woods ETFs perform great. One merely has to turn the chart upside down for a proper analysis.
  - Volrath89 4y ago
    This sounds a bit to Keynes in 1930 predicting we will work 15 hours a week in the future. I don't know what is going to happen, but less young people and an ever-increasing age in the general population requiring services doesn't sound so good of a combination. Even if your metric "how many hours does a person need to trade to get a particular product or service" goes down.
  - mym1990 4y ago
    I am confused how a person is getting wealthier in this world of yours if either a) there are not enough people to fill jobs due to a decline in population or b) robots do begin to replace high value jobs? Also, with your 0 coefficient you are assuming infinite wealth? That seems...unreasonable. Ultimately the author makes a good case if the assumption is that we never make it off Earth. Growth could probably be sustained at an exponential pace if we become interplanetary but it certainly won't happen overnight.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - osigurdson 4y ago
      "Wealth" is a measure of how many hours of effort need to be traded for a product or a service. The problem is, we've had jobs and money for so long that something seems fundamental about it. I assure you, there is nothing fundamental about these things: if a Ferrari can be 3D printed in the backyard with stuff lying around on the ground then everyone can have one (OK - you can't call it a Ferrari due to trademark issues - everyone can have a "RRRRari"). If we do ever reach "AI/robo summer" I certainly hope we appreciate it. If we don't, we deserve AI winter.
tuatoru 4y ago
The average person? No. For the owners of the robots, yes. People who are de-skilled and pushed out of the workforce not so much. Unless of course all those people starve to death. Then the average person is an owner of robots.
- osigurdson 4y ago
  The only way we've been able to keep people from having cheap products is via regulation. Will governments really regulate that poor people are not allowed to have robots? Maybe, but that is closer to my "AI winter" scenario. My "AI summer" thesis is based on products approaching the cost of raw materials with services approaching the price of electricity. Need some food: $ robo make garden
  - Mistletoe 4y ago
    What magical robots are these haha? I love my Roomba but he still gets stuck pretty much every time he sweeps and that is the most simple robot imaginable.
    - osigurdson 4y ago
      The Roomba could represent humanity’s apex in the robotics field in terms of price / performance but I suspect it is unlikely.

Mistletoe 4y ago

Hmmm I have my doubts about that, sounds like Cathie Wood talk. How will AI increase GDP? Seems like it could reduce GDP just as easily by putting all the writers, artists, coders, out of a job. This estimate is much more modest for AI increases by 2030. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publicat... >The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost) I think of this article when I hear about decades of incredible growth on top of the already many decades of incredible growth. https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/ https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/

osigurdson 4y ago
It is pretty simple, really. The size of the economy, GDP and other metrics don't really matter. The real measure is how many hours does a person need to trade to get a particular product or service. If that goes to zero, we will be in good shape even if GDP is high or low. Nice to see that the "this-cant-go-on" author knows how to calculate 1.02^N and shocked themselves when typing a somewhat large N into the calculator. The thing they forgot is the size of the economy doesn't mean anything on its own. It isn't a physical thing that will take up all of the space in the universe eventually as the author seems to fear.
- osigurdson 4y ago
  PS - Cathy Woods ETFs perform great. One merely has to turn the chart upside down for a proper analysis.
- Volrath89 4y ago
  This sounds a bit to Keynes in 1930 predicting we will work 15 hours a week in the future. I don't know what is going to happen, but less young people and an ever-increasing age in the general population requiring services doesn't sound so good of a combination. Even if your metric "how many hours does a person need to trade to get a particular product or service" goes down.
- mym1990 4y ago
  I am confused how a person is getting wealthier in this world of yours if either a) there are not enough people to fill jobs due to a decline in population or b) robots do begin to replace high value jobs? Also, with your 0 coefficient you are assuming infinite wealth? That seems...unreasonable. Ultimately the author makes a good case if the assumption is that we never make it off Earth. Growth could probably be sustained at an exponential pace if we become interplanetary but it certainly won't happen overnight.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - osigurdson 4y ago
    "Wealth" is a measure of how many hours of effort need to be traded for a product or a service. The problem is, we've had jobs and money for so long that something seems fundamental about it. I assure you, there is nothing fundamental about these things: if a Ferrari can be 3D printed in the backyard with stuff lying around on the ground then everyone can have one (OK - you can't call it a Ferrari due to trademark issues - everyone can have a "RRRRari"). If we do ever reach "AI/robo summer" I certainly hope we appreciate it. If we don't, we deserve AI winter.

tuatoru 4y ago

The average person? No. For the owners of the robots, yes. People who are de-skilled and pushed out of the workforce not so much. Unless of course all those people starve to death. Then the average person is an owner of robots.

osigurdson 4y ago
The only way we've been able to keep people from having cheap products is via regulation. Will governments really regulate that poor people are not allowed to have robots? Maybe, but that is closer to my "AI winter" scenario. My "AI summer" thesis is based on products approaching the cost of raw materials with services approaching the price of electricity. Need some food: $ robo make garden
- Mistletoe 4y ago
  What magical robots are these haha? I love my Roomba but he still gets stuck pretty much every time he sweeps and that is the most simple robot imaginable.
  - osigurdson 4y ago
    The Roomba could represent humanity’s apex in the robotics field in terms of price / performance but I suspect it is unlikely.