3 ms·

"Disappear" should not get in quotes. I once wrote a simple simulation of society with low birth rate and was shocked how fast they all went away to zero. Had

• bigDinosaur 4y ago
  There are probably subgroups of Japanese people with birth rates higher than replacement. There may also be major advantages to having a child in 2100 that are not evident now (vast tracts of unclaimed land to exploit?).
• tsimionescu 4y ago
  This is like the old saying - statisticians will happily tell you how long your nails will be 40 years from now (with the mild assumption that you won't cut them). A country of 100M people will change its birth patterns long long long before it "disappears".
• quacked 4y ago
  The only way populations go to zero is in a Children of Men situation, if the city dwelling populations all choose not to reproduce eventually the country will have a lower population by be more comprised of religious cults with high reproduction rates