4 ms·

A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark

59 points by minecraftman 15y ago

ghshephard 15y ago
GE has said that the price of Solar Panels is _almost_ to the point at which they are prepared to enter the market aggressively [1] - and when they do, they will drive the price _down_ so as to increase market adoption to the point where very large manufacturing facilities make sense. This crying over the increase in the performance/price curve seems somewhat ironic - if the Chinese Government has been actually providing subsidies to it's domestic manufacturers, it will have to really step up and start subsidizing american consumers as the prices drop further. Some things make sense to manufacture in other countries. This is good for American Consumers, and, as a result of Solar Energy Adoption (which is a hairs breadth of being less expensive than _non_ adjusted carbon files per kilowatt hour, just wait until we see a carbon tax) great for the environment. [1] http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20125872-54/ge-solar-panels-will-be-as-easy-to-install-as-new-roof/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20125872-54/ge-solar-panel...
va_coder 15y ago
The story, as told to me by a guy that is very connected in the US solar industry: 1) SolarWorld, a German company, filed a complaint with the US government. 2) A bureaucrat in DC thought it would be a good idea to take the complaint seriously. 3) Now growth in the solar industry, in both China and the US, may be hurt due to the possible trade war. Some background: http://www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2011/10/solarworld-files-complaint-against-chinese-panelmakers-cell-manufacturers.html http://www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2011/10/solarworld-fil... It seems, if you are for free trade, this is a bad thing.
nostromo 15y ago
> On October 18, the U.S. government was asked to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese solar cells and modules, based on the argument that China-based producers have been heavily subsidized and are selling solar products at unfairly low prices. So the Chinese government wants to sell us renewable energy infrastructure below cost. Sounds great to me.
- cpeterso 15y ago
  When China raises their prices, will US firms have the PV tech and technicians to meet demand? The ultimate IP coup would be if China patented their PV technology and production processes.
- dantheman 15y ago
  Exactly, perhaps a little bit of history, Bastiat's essay: A PETITION From the Manufacturers of Candles, Tapers, Lanterns, sticks, Street Lamps, Snuffers, and Extinguishers, and from Producers of Tallow, Oil, Resin, Alcohol, and Generally of Everything Connected with Lighting. http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html
  - ericd 15y ago
    Great read. There is a subtle but important difference here in that it's an artificial advantage (government subsidies), and potentially a short-term one, versus that permanent natural foreign production advantage proposed in the article. The oranges in that story would always be half the price. There's no fundamental reason that these will stay under cost, and indeed, it seems unlikely that they would. In the long run, it may be cheaper or more beneficial to develop a domestic industry in this, with all of the benefits that that comes with, even if the upfront price is higher. It doesn't seem like a good idea to let foreign goods be subsidized to the level where it will kill your domestic industries and reduce your country's ability to operate independently, especially if that's one of the goals of the subsidies.
- Tangurena 15y ago
  The Japanese government did this (selling below cost) with consumer electronics, steel and some other industries, with the end result being that no television sets are made in the US anymore.
  - mikeash 15y ago
    Was that the result, or merely something which happened afterwards for other reasons?
Joakal 15y ago
USA could invest in 3D printing technology, then the people could make their own made in china stuff.
ams6110 15y ago
many solar markets around the world have reached grid parity I'm not one who watches alternative energy technolgies closely, but this statement screams out for further substantiation. Examples. Which markets? At least citations of reputable reporting on this. Because it strikes me as patently unbelievable.
- w33ble 15y ago
  This struck me as a fallacy as well. Those subsidies won't be around forever, and last I heard, the PV cells aren't cost effective without them.
  - va_coder 15y ago
    It's my understanding that the cost to create a new power plant powered by solar cells is cheaper than the cost to build a new plant powered by coal or oil.
    - w33ble 15y ago
      I'd love to see some reports to back up that claim. Not that I'm rallying against solar power or anything, I'm just skeptical. I personally haven't seen anything about huge breakthroughs in solar power generation... not that I've been looking though.
  - ComputerGuru 15y ago
    It would help if you continue the very sentence: After decades of global competition and collaboration, many solar markets around the world have reached grid parity—the point at which generating solar electricity, without subsidies, costs less than the electricity purchased from the grid. No?
    - w33ble 15y ago
      Fair enough. The way it's worded really seems to target the public sector though. Maybe I'm just way out of touch, but has the cost of PV really come down far enough that it's cheaper for the average homeowner to generate solar power than to buy power from the grid? And in which countries is that true? Or, is this statement targeted at large-scall installations only (power plants, warehouses, etc)?

59 points by minecraftman 15y ago

GE has said that the price of Solar Panels is _almost_ to the point at which they are prepared to enter the market aggressively [1] - and when they do, they will drive the price _down_ so as to increase market adoption to the point where very large manufacturing facilities make sense. This crying over the increase in the performance/price curve seems somewhat ironic - if the Chinese Government has been actually providing subsidies to it's domestic manufacturers, it will have to really step up and start subsidizing american consumers as the prices drop further. Some things make sense to manufacture in other countries. This is good for American Consumers, and, as a result of Solar Energy Adoption (which is a hairs breadth of being less expensive than _non_ adjusted carbon files per kilowatt hour, just wait until we see a carbon tax) great for the environment. [1] http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20125872-54/ge-solar-panels-will-be-as-easy-to-install-as-new-roof/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20125872-54/ge-solar-panel...

va_coder 15y ago

The story, as told to me by a guy that is very connected in the US solar industry: 1) SolarWorld, a German company, filed a complaint with the US government. 2) A bureaucrat in DC thought it would be a good idea to take the complaint seriously. 3) Now growth in the solar industry, in both China and the US, may be hurt due to the possible trade war. Some background: http://www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2011/10/solarworld-files-complaint-against-chinese-panelmakers-cell-manufacturers.html http://www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2011/10/solarworld-fil... It seems, if you are for free trade, this is a bad thing.

nostromo 15y ago

> On October 18, the U.S. government was asked to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese solar cells and modules, based on the argument that China-based producers have been heavily subsidized and are selling solar products at unfairly low prices. So the Chinese government wants to sell us renewable energy infrastructure below cost. Sounds great to me.

cpeterso 15y ago
When China raises their prices, will US firms have the PV tech and technicians to meet demand? The ultimate IP coup would be if China patented their PV technology and production processes.
dantheman 15y ago
Exactly, perhaps a little bit of history, Bastiat's essay: A PETITION From the Manufacturers of Candles, Tapers, Lanterns, sticks, Street Lamps, Snuffers, and Extinguishers, and from Producers of Tallow, Oil, Resin, Alcohol, and Generally of Everything Connected with Lighting. http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html
- ericd 15y ago
  Great read. There is a subtle but important difference here in that it's an artificial advantage (government subsidies), and potentially a short-term one, versus that permanent natural foreign production advantage proposed in the article. The oranges in that story would always be half the price. There's no fundamental reason that these will stay under cost, and indeed, it seems unlikely that they would. In the long run, it may be cheaper or more beneficial to develop a domestic industry in this, with all of the benefits that that comes with, even if the upfront price is higher. It doesn't seem like a good idea to let foreign goods be subsidized to the level where it will kill your domestic industries and reduce your country's ability to operate independently, especially if that's one of the goals of the subsidies.
Tangurena 15y ago
The Japanese government did this (selling below cost) with consumer electronics, steel and some other industries, with the end result being that no television sets are made in the US anymore.
- mikeash 15y ago
  Was that the result, or merely something which happened afterwards for other reasons?

Joakal 15y ago

USA could invest in 3D printing technology, then the people could make their own made in china stuff.

ams6110 15y ago

many solar markets around the world have reached grid parity I'm not one who watches alternative energy technolgies closely, but this statement screams out for further substantiation. Examples. Which markets? At least citations of reputable reporting on this. Because it strikes me as patently unbelievable.

w33ble 15y ago
This struck me as a fallacy as well. Those subsidies won't be around forever, and last I heard, the PV cells aren't cost effective without them.
- va_coder 15y ago
  It's my understanding that the cost to create a new power plant powered by solar cells is cheaper than the cost to build a new plant powered by coal or oil.
  - w33ble 15y ago
    I'd love to see some reports to back up that claim. Not that I'm rallying against solar power or anything, I'm just skeptical. I personally haven't seen anything about huge breakthroughs in solar power generation... not that I've been looking though.
- ComputerGuru 15y ago
  It would help if you continue the very sentence: After decades of global competition and collaboration, many solar markets around the world have reached grid parity—the point at which generating solar electricity, without subsidies, costs less than the electricity purchased from the grid. No?
  - w33ble 15y ago
    Fair enough. The way it's worded really seems to target the public sector though. Maybe I'm just way out of touch, but has the cost of PV really come down far enough that it's cheaper for the average homeowner to generate solar power than to buy power from the grid? And in which countries is that true? Or, is this statement targeted at large-scall installations only (power plants, warehouses, etc)?