The best predictor for upward movement within a company is "does your manager's manager want you to move up". I know that all of this sounds kind of cynical but

The best predictor for upward movement within a company is "does your manager's manager want you to move up". I know that all of this sounds kind of cynical but you can spend years trying to hit implicit and explicit goals for promotion and get nowhere, and you can also move up quite quickly just because someone higher up gave an okay.