5 ms·

I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and

I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? I'm not trying to be facetious or incidious with my question, feels like I need to worry more about paying bills and keeping my family fed but with nukes being talked about maybe I should be paying more attention.

riku_iki 4y ago
> Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? Putin will nuke hot areas in Ukraine, decapitating Ukrainian forces. No other countries will be involved.
simion314 4y ago
Putin diplomacy level is in the negative, he and his dogs always threaten the neighboring countries all the time. So when targets inside Russia are hit like his precious bridge they always tell us that this means Russia is invaded and they have the right to use nuclear weapons in defense. For us in Easter Europe the bigger concern is the nuclear plants, this bastards will sabotage them in some false flag operation to get revenge on their incompetence and inferiority.
jcranmer 4y ago
> I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? Most of the military analysts I have read have essentially dismissed the idea that Russia was planning to use nuclear weapons--there's been no force posture changes that would precede imminent use of nukes. The worry instead tends to come from pundits and politicians, and are probably driven more by a desire to support (or not) Ukraine. The biggest concern is that Russia has consistently threatened nuclear responses to military incursions of its territory (which is not unusual, all nuclear states do this), but the territory that is included in this nuclear threshold is... unclear. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk in September, but essentially nobody recognizes those annexations. Immediately after the annexation, Putin did another round of reiterating nuclear threats. Note that Russia did not control much of Zaporizhzhia (including its largest city and administrative center), and Russia lost control of much of Kherson last month--if you took Russia's claims extremely literally, Ukraine was already in a position to trigger nuclear threshold response. Realistically, no one believes that Putin will use nukes in response to military failure in Ukrainian territory, with the possible exception of Crimea. The annexation may have been intended to try to extend the strategic ambiguity of nuclear response that exists right now for Crimea to the rest of Russian-controlled Ukraine, but it probably had the opposite effect (which is to say, people find nuclear response to a Crimean incursion less likely as a result of the annexation). My sense is that a lot of these messages are directed towards trying to get the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table and ratify the status quo in lieu of being able to achieve military victory.
Zanfa 4y ago
Russia’s been threatening to nuke everybody on a regular cadence for a decade. What’s different now is their threats are being broadcast more to western audiences who are not used to nuclear threats. Nobody in Eastern Europe has been phased by the threats for years already, so Russia’s been trying to find a new, more “naive” audience.

riku_iki 4y ago

> Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? Putin will nuke hot areas in Ukraine, decapitating Ukrainian forces. No other countries will be involved.

simion314 4y ago

Putin diplomacy level is in the negative, he and his dogs always threaten the neighboring countries all the time. So when targets inside Russia are hit like his precious bridge they always tell us that this means Russia is invaded and they have the right to use nuclear weapons in defense. For us in Easter Europe the bigger concern is the nuclear plants, this bastards will sabotage them in some false flag operation to get revenge on their incompetence and inferiority.

jcranmer 4y ago

> I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? Most of the military analysts I have read have essentially dismissed the idea that Russia was planning to use nuclear weapons--there's been no force posture changes that would precede imminent use of nukes. The worry instead tends to come from pundits and politicians, and are probably driven more by a desire to support (or not) Ukraine. The biggest concern is that Russia has consistently threatened nuclear responses to military incursions of its territory (which is not unusual, all nuclear states do this), but the territory that is included in this nuclear threshold is... unclear. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk in September, but essentially nobody recognizes those annexations. Immediately after the annexation, Putin did another round of reiterating nuclear threats. Note that Russia did not control much of Zaporizhzhia (including its largest city and administrative center), and Russia lost control of much of Kherson last month--if you took Russia's claims extremely literally, Ukraine was already in a position to trigger nuclear threshold response. Realistically, no one believes that Putin will use nukes in response to military failure in Ukrainian territory, with the possible exception of Crimea. The annexation may have been intended to try to extend the strategic ambiguity of nuclear response that exists right now for Crimea to the rest of Russian-controlled Ukraine, but it probably had the opposite effect (which is to say, people find nuclear response to a Crimean incursion less likely as a result of the annexation). My sense is that a lot of these messages are directed towards trying to get the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table and ratify the status quo in lieu of being able to achieve military victory.

Zanfa 4y ago

Russia’s been threatening to nuke everybody on a regular cadence for a decade. What’s different now is their threats are being broadcast more to western audiences who are not used to nuclear threats. Nobody in Eastern Europe has been phased by the threats for years already, so Russia’s been trying to find a new, more “naive” audience.