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Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcin

Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcing conscripts predominantly from poorer regions, and preferentially not ethnic Russians). Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia.

ceejayoz 4y ago
> Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I'm not sure "the people with nukes would be in a precarious position" is the comforting statement you intended it to be.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Big, united Russia with lots of nukes can afford to use them much more than 5 small, weak post-Russias, each with some nukes. If nothing else, these post-Russias would struggle to afford even more to upkeep and upgrade the stash of nukes. And would be easier to neutralize too...
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > If nothing else, these post-Russias would struggle to afford even more to upkeep and upgrade the stash of nukes. Again, not comforting. "Might as well use them on <hated neighbor>!"
adamsmith143 4y ago
>Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Ask the people living on the Borders of Latvia, Estonia or Georgia what they think of that. These warlords won't respect borders. >even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I think they have even more incentive to use them, far less consequences if they do. Losing your position as warlord of some Fiefdom is a lot less scary then losing your position as the Dictator of a nation with a top 10 GDP, a permanent UN Security Council seat and having personal wealth in the Hundreds of Billions?
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Milosevic of Serbia was taken to court. Gaddafi was captured and killed before any court could protect him. Putin is never going to stand trial, unless somehow Russia rats him out (but I struggle to imagine that). Smaller dictators can do less harm, not more.
  - adamsmith143 4y ago
    >Putin is never going to stand trial, unless somehow Russia rats him out (but I struggle to imagine that). I'm sure Serbs and Libyans had said the same about Milosevic and Gaddafi for years before they were removed from power.

ceejayoz 4y ago

> Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I'm not sure "the people with nukes would be in a precarious position" is the comforting statement you intended it to be.

rich_sasha 4y ago
Big, united Russia with lots of nukes can afford to use them much more than 5 small, weak post-Russias, each with some nukes. If nothing else, these post-Russias would struggle to afford even more to upkeep and upgrade the stash of nukes. And would be easier to neutralize too...
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > If nothing else, these post-Russias would struggle to afford even more to upkeep and upgrade the stash of nukes. Again, not comforting. "Might as well use them on <hated neighbor>!"

adamsmith143 4y ago

>Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Ask the people living on the Borders of Latvia, Estonia or Georgia what they think of that. These warlords won't respect borders. >even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I think they have even more incentive to use them, far less consequences if they do. Losing your position as warlord of some Fiefdom is a lot less scary then losing your position as the Dictator of a nation with a top 10 GDP, a permanent UN Security Council seat and having personal wealth in the Hundreds of Billions?

rich_sasha 4y ago
Milosevic of Serbia was taken to court. Gaddafi was captured and killed before any court could protect him. Putin is never going to stand trial, unless somehow Russia rats him out (but I struggle to imagine that). Smaller dictators can do less harm, not more.
- adamsmith143 4y ago
  >Putin is never going to stand trial, unless somehow Russia rats him out (but I struggle to imagine that). I'm sure Serbs and Libyans had said the same about Milosevic and Gaddafi for years before they were removed from power.