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> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago

by xtian 4y ago

> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions”

greggarious 4y ago
IIRC North Korea has them too, maybe they gave them the tech? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915 They tend to steal from everyone, test a bit, then trade what they have as their people starve.
- xtian 4y ago
  The Russian missile in question, the KH-101, has been in service for ten years, is air-launched rather than ground-launched, and has at least twice the range of the North Korean missile described in that article. Why would Russia need tech from North Korea anyway? North Korean technology is based on what the Soviet Union shared with them. As far as I can tell, Russia has strong domestic production capabilities for even their most advanced cruise missiles such as the hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon.
ceejayoz 4y ago
That doesn't actually debunk the point; it potentially implies they've already ripped through the older ones in the stockpiles and are down to just the new, recently-produced ones. They don't have the production capacity to produce at a fast enough rate to keep the pace of cruise missile strikes in Ukraine.
- xtian 4y ago
  The argument made by the West, including the US Secretary of Defense, was that Russian missile production would be significantly curtailed due to trade restrictions on advanced technology like microchips. If they are using missiles produced in recent months then that argument seems debunked to me. What basis is there to assume that Russia lacks the ability to mass produce the less sophisticated components of these missiles? --- Edit (can't reply): > They've also apparently been canibalizing consumer devices Based on an anecdotal report from the leadership of their primary belligerent in this conflict. Why is that easier to believe than the idea that they can produce the (very much not advanced) chips required in these missiles? > Historical. Iskanders have been produced in the dozens-per-year quantities pre-war, Kalibr in the ~100 range. They're using that many cruise missiles in a single day's attacks now; that isn't be sustainable long-term for anyone. Why would peacetime production represent their maximum capacity? They inherited a Cold War military-industrial complex which was preparing for a large scale global conflict. > You should re-read the NYT article you cite; it openly states it's not debunking what you claim it debunks. The fact the article reports is that a missile used in November was produced no earlier than October. I'm not required to agree with their insinuated conclusion. I do agree that the status of Russia's missile inventory is unclear since logically different types of missiles will be allocated for different uses based on their cost and capabilities (such as the ability to penetrate modern air defense systems).
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > If they are using missiles produced in recent months then that argument seems debunked to me. Or they had a bit of a chip stockpile; the NYT cites "significant stockpiles of the components before the war began" as a possibility. (They've also apparently been canibalizing consumer devices; https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-sanctions-effect-military/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-...) > What basis is there to assume that Russia lacks the ability to mass produce the less sophisticated components of these missiles? Historical. Iskanders have been produced in the dozens-per-year quantities pre-war, Kalibr in the ~100 range. They're using that many cruise missiles in a single day's attacks now; that isn't be sustainable long-term for anyone. You should re-read the NYT article (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missiles-russia-ukraine-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missil...) you cite; it openly states it's not debunking what you claim it debunks. > Whether Russia has depleted its inventory of older cruise missiles is unclear. But militaries often use older munitions first in combat because they typically make up a majority of a nation’s stockpile.

by xtian 4y ago

> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions”

greggarious 4y ago

IIRC North Korea has them too, maybe they gave them the tech? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915 They tend to steal from everyone, test a bit, then trade what they have as their people starve.

xtian 4y ago
The Russian missile in question, the KH-101, has been in service for ten years, is air-launched rather than ground-launched, and has at least twice the range of the North Korean missile described in that article. Why would Russia need tech from North Korea anyway? North Korean technology is based on what the Soviet Union shared with them. As far as I can tell, Russia has strong domestic production capabilities for even their most advanced cruise missiles such as the hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon.

ceejayoz 4y ago

That doesn't actually debunk the point; it potentially implies they've already ripped through the older ones in the stockpiles and are down to just the new, recently-produced ones. They don't have the production capacity to produce at a fast enough rate to keep the pace of cruise missile strikes in Ukraine.

xtian 4y ago
The argument made by the West, including the US Secretary of Defense, was that Russian missile production would be significantly curtailed due to trade restrictions on advanced technology like microchips. If they are using missiles produced in recent months then that argument seems debunked to me. What basis is there to assume that Russia lacks the ability to mass produce the less sophisticated components of these missiles? --- Edit (can't reply): > They've also apparently been canibalizing consumer devices Based on an anecdotal report from the leadership of their primary belligerent in this conflict. Why is that easier to believe than the idea that they can produce the (very much not advanced) chips required in these missiles? > Historical. Iskanders have been produced in the dozens-per-year quantities pre-war, Kalibr in the ~100 range. They're using that many cruise missiles in a single day's attacks now; that isn't be sustainable long-term for anyone. Why would peacetime production represent their maximum capacity? They inherited a Cold War military-industrial complex which was preparing for a large scale global conflict. > You should re-read the NYT article you cite; it openly states it's not debunking what you claim it debunks. The fact the article reports is that a missile used in November was produced no earlier than October. I'm not required to agree with their insinuated conclusion. I do agree that the status of Russia's missile inventory is unclear since logically different types of missiles will be allocated for different uses based on their cost and capabilities (such as the ability to penetrate modern air defense systems).
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > If they are using missiles produced in recent months then that argument seems debunked to me. Or they had a bit of a chip stockpile; the NYT cites "significant stockpiles of the components before the war began" as a possibility. (They've also apparently been canibalizing consumer devices; https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-sanctions-effect-military/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-...) > What basis is there to assume that Russia lacks the ability to mass produce the less sophisticated components of these missiles? Historical. Iskanders have been produced in the dozens-per-year quantities pre-war, Kalibr in the ~100 range. They're using that many cruise missiles in a single day's attacks now; that isn't be sustainable long-term for anyone. You should re-read the NYT article (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missiles-russia-ukraine-sanctions.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missil...) you cite; it openly states it's not debunking what you claim it debunks. > Whether Russia has depleted its inventory of older cruise missiles is unclear. But militaries often use older munitions first in combat because they typically make up a majority of a nation’s stockpile.