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> Meanwhile the domestic economy has been hit hard by a collapse in the workforce as millions have either fled or been drafted. Official figures show the workfo

by f6v 4y ago

> Meanwhile the domestic economy has been hit hard by a collapse in the workforce as millions have either fled or been drafted. Official figures show the workforce shrank by 600,000 in October alone, most likely some of the most qualified. That creates a long-term hit both to the demand and supply side of the economy. While many have been drafted,“millions” is an exaggeration. Yes, Yerevan is full of Russians at the moment. But likely most are from IT, those who need to get payments from international clients. Doubt that its “millions” though.

IgorPartola 4y ago
He drafted 300,000 in the partial mobilization. There were I believe three other call ups before then that didn’t quite reach into 100k range but were close. Also relatively comparable numbers have left Russia during the partial mobilization, so losing a million able workers from the workforce is not an unreasonable estimate.
- lawn 4y ago
  That's what they claim anyway. Corruption, fear and propaganda is absolutely rampant, so it's very likely some numbers are adjusted.
  - IgorPartola 4y ago
    ISW had verified independent reports that while they didn’t quite meet the goal, they were close. And tens of thousands of the poorly trained call ups had already shown up on the front lines.
eloff 4y ago
It's millions[1] between the number the have been drafted and the number that have fled, and that's taking the Kremlin at their word about how many people they drafted. Also Russia has a brewing demographics collapse, similar to what Japan is experiencing. This is going to royally fuck them for the next 50 years. I think the Ukraine invasion might be the beginning of the end for Russia as we know it, I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of Russia break away going forward. [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/25/russia-uzbekistan-kyrgyzstan-putin-mobilization-great-reverse-migration/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/25/russia-uzbekistan-kyrgy...
- NovemberWhiskey 4y ago
  A disorderly failure of the Russian state is pretty much one of the nightmare scenarios.
  - eloff 4y ago
    Yes. It's a pretty scary possibility given their massive stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction of all kinds.
  - rich_sasha 4y ago
    Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.
    - adamsmith143 4y ago
      Not so sure about this. That a handful of aggressive and hungry Russo-Warlords with Nukes is any improvement over Putin.
      - rich_sasha 4y ago
        Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcing conscripts predominantly from poorer regions, and preferentially not ethnic Russians). Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I'm not sure "the people with nukes would be in a precarious position" is the comforting statement you intended it to be.

by f6v 4y ago

IgorPartola 4y ago

He drafted 300,000 in the partial mobilization. There were I believe three other call ups before then that didn’t quite reach into 100k range but were close. Also relatively comparable numbers have left Russia during the partial mobilization, so losing a million able workers from the workforce is not an unreasonable estimate.

lawn 4y ago
That's what they claim anyway. Corruption, fear and propaganda is absolutely rampant, so it's very likely some numbers are adjusted.
- IgorPartola 4y ago
  ISW had verified independent reports that while they didn’t quite meet the goal, they were close. And tens of thousands of the poorly trained call ups had already shown up on the front lines.

eloff 4y ago

It's millions[1] between the number the have been drafted and the number that have fled, and that's taking the Kremlin at their word about how many people they drafted. Also Russia has a brewing demographics collapse, similar to what Japan is experiencing. This is going to royally fuck them for the next 50 years. I think the Ukraine invasion might be the beginning of the end for Russia as we know it, I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of Russia break away going forward. [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/25/russia-uzbekistan-kyrgyzstan-putin-mobilization-great-reverse-migration/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/25/russia-uzbekistan-kyrgy...

NovemberWhiskey 4y ago
A disorderly failure of the Russian state is pretty much one of the nightmare scenarios.
- eloff 4y ago
  Yes. It's a pretty scary possibility given their massive stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction of all kinds.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.
  - adamsmith143 4y ago
    Not so sure about this. That a handful of aggressive and hungry Russo-Warlords with Nukes is any improvement over Putin.
    - rich_sasha 4y ago
      Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcing conscripts predominantly from poorer regions, and preferentially not ethnic Russians). Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia.
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia. I'm not sure "the people with nukes would be in a precarious position" is the comforting statement you intended it to be.