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In 20 years when tsmc has effectively transferred to america, taiwan will stop being contested and go the way of other chinese islands like hk. This is the logi

by kimmik 4y ago

In 20 years when tsmc has effectively transferred to america, taiwan will stop being contested and go the way of other chinese islands like hk. This is the logical solution to the us-china cold war.

pjc50 4y ago
I don't see why the Taiwanese would go quietly.
- justaman 4y ago
  It will be a carbon copy of HongKongers
  - speed_spread 4y ago
    Not even close. Hong Kong was at the end of a 100 year lease to UK from mainland China. Taiwan is China's previous regime military holdout. There is no soft (diplomatical) path for it's reintegration into mainland, ever. Observe that HK's didn't go that smoothly, either even if it was only a "change of administration".
    - yucky 4y ago
      > Taiwan is China's previous regime military holdout. Yeah but those guys are all dead, so you're relying on 2nd & 3rd generation citizens to hold the same values. That doesn't generally happen.
      - pjc50 4y ago
        Taiwanese may also have the value of "having free elections", I hear those are quite popular and people may not want to give them up. Especially now they can see what happened to HK.
        readthenotes1 4y ago
        It was explained to me that in mainland China they do have free and fair elections. That they only have one candidate to vote for is just a quibble.
      - speed_spread 4y ago
        Living in a former colony that's been given abruptly cutoff from motherland and sent to the wolves (ha!) almost 300 years ago, I can tell you firsthand that culture and values actually _thrive_ in the face of adversity. I'd contend that comfort and the lack of conflict is actually the greatest long term threat to cultural identity. China is patient, but in "Civilisation-game" terms I believe that the strategic, political and economic importance of Taiwan are much to high for the CCP leadership to passively ignore long enough for a "cultural victory".
joshbaptiste 4y ago
indeed.. the US "strategic ambiguity" policy towards Taiwan is eroding as a recent major test against it was Nancy Pelosi's visit
eternalban 4y ago
I commented on this a couple of months ago, after looking at a Global Times (purported cpc mouthpiece) cartoon when Pelosi was visiting. "Theft of national heritage" was an odd one to see, and it immediately became clear CPC meant the Taiwanese chip industry. The TSMC CEO also very openly said that post-invasion Taiwan won't have a chip industry. I also agree with your prediction. If Taiwan's "Chinese cultural heritage" does end up in US, the only other matter that are Taiwan sensitive are controlling the first island chain, and Japan's thoughts on the matter.
thomasz 4y ago
Taiwan is the key part of the first island chain[1] that prevents china from projecting hard power beyond their immediate neighborhood. It is way more important for the American hegemony than Ukraine for example. I really do not think that TSMC is the deciding factor here. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain

by kimmik 4y ago

In 20 years when tsmc has effectively transferred to america, taiwan will stop being contested and go the way of other chinese islands like hk. This is the logical solution to the us-china cold war.

pjc50 4y ago

I don't see why the Taiwanese would go quietly.

justaman 4y ago
It will be a carbon copy of HongKongers
- speed_spread 4y ago
  Not even close. Hong Kong was at the end of a 100 year lease to UK from mainland China. Taiwan is China's previous regime military holdout. There is no soft (diplomatical) path for it's reintegration into mainland, ever. Observe that HK's didn't go that smoothly, either even if it was only a "change of administration".
  - yucky 4y ago
    > Taiwan is China's previous regime military holdout. Yeah but those guys are all dead, so you're relying on 2nd & 3rd generation citizens to hold the same values. That doesn't generally happen.
    - pjc50 4y ago
      Taiwanese may also have the value of "having free elections", I hear those are quite popular and people may not want to give them up. Especially now they can see what happened to HK.
      - readthenotes1 4y ago
        It was explained to me that in mainland China they do have free and fair elections. That they only have one candidate to vote for is just a quibble.
    - speed_spread 4y ago
      Living in a former colony that's been given abruptly cutoff from motherland and sent to the wolves (ha!) almost 300 years ago, I can tell you firsthand that culture and values actually _thrive_ in the face of adversity. I'd contend that comfort and the lack of conflict is actually the greatest long term threat to cultural identity. China is patient, but in "Civilisation-game" terms I believe that the strategic, political and economic importance of Taiwan are much to high for the CCP leadership to passively ignore long enough for a "cultural victory".

joshbaptiste 4y ago

indeed.. the US "strategic ambiguity" policy towards Taiwan is eroding as a recent major test against it was Nancy Pelosi's visit

eternalban 4y ago

I commented on this a couple of months ago, after looking at a Global Times (purported cpc mouthpiece) cartoon when Pelosi was visiting. "Theft of national heritage" was an odd one to see, and it immediately became clear CPC meant the Taiwanese chip industry. The TSMC CEO also very openly said that post-invasion Taiwan won't have a chip industry. I also agree with your prediction. If Taiwan's "Chinese cultural heritage" does end up in US, the only other matter that are Taiwan sensitive are controlling the first island chain, and Japan's thoughts on the matter.

thomasz 4y ago

Taiwan is the key part of the first island chain[1] that prevents china from projecting hard power beyond their immediate neighborhood. It is way more important for the American hegemony than Ukraine for example. I really do not think that TSMC is the deciding factor here. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain