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> Of course a technology centered around avoiding governance and banking failures will be centered in the countries with the most governance and banking failure

> Of course a technology centered around avoiding governance and banking failures will be centered in the countries with the most governance and banking failures! The issue that I have with this perspective is that it doesn't actually solve the underlying problem - it just kicks it down the road. As soon as crypto becomes big in a country with failed governments and banks, it's going to become the primary target of those same governments and banks.

savanaly 4y ago
In the article Scott anticipates this response and writes >Governments can take lots of actions against crypto. They can ban it. They can prevent banks from accepting it. They can search the blockchain to hunt down users. But governments take lots of actions against protests, tax evasion, and drugs, and those things still often succeed. The point isn’t that governments can’t ban a thing and send police after anyone who does it. The point is that there are only so many officers and detectives. If you make something too annoying to crush, the government will put in a half-hearted effort but mostly redirect resources elsewhere.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Regnore 4y ago
  This doesn't answer the concern, it just downplays it.
  - livueta 4y ago
    Well, consider the distribution of global btc hashrate by country over time: https://ccaf.io/cbeci/mining_map https://ccaf.io/cbeci/mining_map Editorialized: https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-returns-as-2nd-top-bitcoin-mining-hub-despite-the-crypto-ban https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-returns-as-2nd-top-bitc... Even a fairly authoritarian society with strong incentives to crush cryptocurrencies (https://www.marketplace.org/2021/05/20/chinas-crackdown-on-cryptocurrency-is-likely-a-way-to-maintain-economic-control-experts-say/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/05/20/chinas-crackdown-on-c...) wasn't able to get hashrate, much less usage, to anywhere close to zero. I guess I'm curious: what levers do you figure Western societies could deploy that'd be more effective than the Chinese approach? From my perspective, this state of affairs is a decent existence proof that fully eliminating cryptocurrency use is difficult even with access to authoritarian methods. nb: above links don't include 2022 data and I couldn't quickly find that, so if that data affects the quality of the above argument I'd appreciate the correction
  - yosame 4y ago
    I like a lot of Scott 's writings, but this is a bad habit of his. If there's a point that contradicts his own, he'll pretend to address it while actually just skipping over it/downplay it's relevance.
- XorNot 4y ago
  "Governments can ban things but it frequently doesn't work" works directly against the idea that crypto is providing any value - because the argument it does starts with "governments can ban X but cryptocurrency will save us!" You can't have it both ways: if cryptocurrency is the be all and end all of avoiding government censure of other activities, why would it not be a high priority to crush it compared to those other things? If it is not, then is it all that useful?
  - savingsPossible 4y ago
    A stronger version of the opposing argument: Cash and banks are easier for the government to control than crypto That is all that there is to the argument! Maybe the difference won't be significant, but I see no reason to think (nor to think the opposite) as of now. Do you have one?
    - XorNot 4y ago
      That's making a specific argument (which you are doing without supporting it in anyway). I am saying you don't get to hedge your argument like this: crypto cannot be both an important part of evading government censure, and too small to be worth government effort to censure. If someone wants to make the middle ground argument, make it, but you're starting from the position of government already engaging in significant regulatory interest in the use of cryptocurrencies.
    - twelve40 4y ago
      pretty sure that's false at least for cash. as for hypothetical crypto underground economy, nobody has really explained how exactly you are supposed to convert those liberating coins into physical goods (that makes all retail illegal?). Which makes it not an argument but a very fuzzy dream.
      - savingsPossible 4y ago
        It is harder for the government to know who is spending cash, but easier for the government to devalue cash
quickthrower2 4y ago
The issue is it’s reliance on the somewhat centralized internet access which is controllable by governments. Mesh and satellites might reduce this. Maybe even ham radio. You don’t need to send much data to send a crypto transaction so sending it using an audio modem on a low frequency is probably fine. There are also crypto notes being developed which is an interesting development.

savanaly 4y ago

In the article Scott anticipates this response and writes >Governments can take lots of actions against crypto. They can ban it. They can prevent banks from accepting it. They can search the blockchain to hunt down users. But governments take lots of actions against protests, tax evasion, and drugs, and those things still often succeed. The point isn’t that governments can’t ban a thing and send police after anyone who does it. The point is that there are only so many officers and detectives. If you make something too annoying to crush, the government will put in a half-hearted effort but mostly redirect resources elsewhere.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Regnore 4y ago
This doesn't answer the concern, it just downplays it.
- livueta 4y ago
  Well, consider the distribution of global btc hashrate by country over time: https://ccaf.io/cbeci/mining_map https://ccaf.io/cbeci/mining_map Editorialized: https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-returns-as-2nd-top-bitcoin-mining-hub-despite-the-crypto-ban https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-returns-as-2nd-top-bitc... Even a fairly authoritarian society with strong incentives to crush cryptocurrencies (https://www.marketplace.org/2021/05/20/chinas-crackdown-on-cryptocurrency-is-likely-a-way-to-maintain-economic-control-experts-say/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/05/20/chinas-crackdown-on-c...) wasn't able to get hashrate, much less usage, to anywhere close to zero. I guess I'm curious: what levers do you figure Western societies could deploy that'd be more effective than the Chinese approach? From my perspective, this state of affairs is a decent existence proof that fully eliminating cryptocurrency use is difficult even with access to authoritarian methods. nb: above links don't include 2022 data and I couldn't quickly find that, so if that data affects the quality of the above argument I'd appreciate the correction
- yosame 4y ago
  I like a lot of Scott 's writings, but this is a bad habit of his. If there's a point that contradicts his own, he'll pretend to address it while actually just skipping over it/downplay it's relevance.
XorNot 4y ago
"Governments can ban things but it frequently doesn't work" works directly against the idea that crypto is providing any value - because the argument it does starts with "governments can ban X but cryptocurrency will save us!" You can't have it both ways: if cryptocurrency is the be all and end all of avoiding government censure of other activities, why would it not be a high priority to crush it compared to those other things? If it is not, then is it all that useful?
- savingsPossible 4y ago
  A stronger version of the opposing argument: Cash and banks are easier for the government to control than crypto That is all that there is to the argument! Maybe the difference won't be significant, but I see no reason to think (nor to think the opposite) as of now. Do you have one?
  - XorNot 4y ago
    That's making a specific argument (which you are doing without supporting it in anyway). I am saying you don't get to hedge your argument like this: crypto cannot be both an important part of evading government censure, and too small to be worth government effort to censure. If someone wants to make the middle ground argument, make it, but you're starting from the position of government already engaging in significant regulatory interest in the use of cryptocurrencies.
  - twelve40 4y ago
    pretty sure that's false at least for cash. as for hypothetical crypto underground economy, nobody has really explained how exactly you are supposed to convert those liberating coins into physical goods (that makes all retail illegal?). Which makes it not an argument but a very fuzzy dream.
    - savingsPossible 4y ago
      It is harder for the government to know who is spending cash, but easier for the government to devalue cash

quickthrower2 4y ago

The issue is it’s reliance on the somewhat centralized internet access which is controllable by governments. Mesh and satellites might reduce this. Maybe even ham radio. You don’t need to send much data to send a crypto transaction so sending it using an audio modem on a low frequency is probably fine. There are also crypto notes being developed which is an interesting development.