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For everyone on this thread making broad proclamations about how SBF will go to jail because of American justice--I'll see you back here in a year or two. Then
by infiniteh00p 4y ago
For everyone on this thread making broad proclamations about how SBF will go to jail because of American justice--I'll see you back here in a year or two. Then we can have that conversation.
In the meantime, I suggest that you consider whether you would reevaluate your priors in any meaningful way if, as I expect, SBF is ultimately not prosecuted.
- europeanguy 4y agoDon't you feel like a moron now?
- pdabbadabba 4y agoDeal!
- SilasX 4y agoThey have prediction markets for exactly this: https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20 https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felon... (On Manifold, you can only donate winnings to charity rather than withdraw, which allows them to legally operate.)
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- warinukraine 4y agoNot the person you're responding to, but I would encourage you to read on the history of _fraud_ in the USA and how that usually turns out.
- bhouston 4y agoMy bet is that he tries his hardest to never set foot on US soil again. He flees the Bahamas to a country without an extradition treaty and who also doesn't want to prosecute him -- the Bahamas likely does. So in a way, I think he may avoid prosecution, but not because of US corruption, but because he flees. This is also why SBF can not testify to congress in person as he will likely be arrested once on US soil as a flight risk. Also why he didn't attend the recent NYTimes event in person -- again he can not step foot on US soil right now or probably ever again.
- eropple 4y agoDoes he have enough actual-money to pull that off?
- bhouston 4y agoCan't be very expensive, probably minimum is a few hundred thousand to get setup somewhere new. With billions missing and dozens of shell companies and various assets all over the place in his name (because FTX lent him personally 100s of millions if not more), I have to imagine he has a few million accessible.
- notch656a 4y agoSBF can easily escape the first world and probably even the arm of the law. But what is life like for someone living outside the law who stole billions from angry people including likely many criminals? His life expectancy would not be long.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- hn_throwaway_99 4y agoThough cute, this is a vacuous reply. The fact is, the US justice system is quite good at prosecuting white collar crimes where: 1. A lot of money was lost, especially rich people's money. 2. The fraud is particularly egregious, that is where it wasn't just a one time thing, but where the whole enterprise was a house of cards. 3. Where there is a clear smoking gun. 1 and 2 are obviously true in the FTX case, and I think given what has been reported so far that #3 will also be fairly apparent (e.g. there are tweets SBF made at the end of September that were lies that deliberately tried to hide the token movement between Alameda and FTX). I'd easily bet that SBF will, when all is said and done, spend at least a decade in jail.
- Ekaros 4y agoAlso SBF or FTX is not big existing financial institution with multiple layers of connections in network. His parent might be somewhat influential, but I don't think it goes too deep. And donations don't really matter if money doesn't keep coming.