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The coming collapse of the German industrial system as it is starved of cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its chemical and energy inputs means that the

The coming collapse of the German industrial system as it is starved of cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its chemical and energy inputs means that the current big Semiconductor Fab installs in the US are likely to be the last round of machines sent by AMSL before they're forced to relocate to the US. It remains to be seen if we can build up enough specialty gas industry before existing stocks run out, and force decisions as to which chips will/won't get made. (I.E. if we run out of Neon) Global trade is winding down, it was the bribe the US gave to the rest of the world to keep them on our side against the Soviet Union. We're backing out of our role as the world's guarantee of security on the high seas. Piracy is about to make a big comeback against anyone not flying a US or Ally's flag. Manufacturing in the US will have to double its installed base to keep up with demand. Capital is fleeing the rest of the world, and we in the US enjoy having our currency as the Global Reserve, so for us, it'll still be a rough ride, but better that most.

selimthegrim 4y ago
I am pretty sure a grateful Ukraine is gonna hook us up with neon
- DocTomoe 4y ago
  Either Russia takes over, and then there's going to be a price hike for having been anti-Russian. Or Ukraine somehow survives, and then they have to rebuild ... leading to a price hike. They may be grateful, but they will also make us pay through the nose.
  - michaelmrose 4y ago
    It might be opening a can of worms but how do you see Russia pulling off a victory after the abject failure so far. They are burning through assets trained and built over years. There is absolutely no reason to believe that their position or resources should improve over time. As it stands their logistics are a laughingstock incapable of effectively bringing a few few hundred thousand people effectively to bear on Ukraine. There is absolutely no reason to believe its up to bringing a larger force to bear. How do you see them possibly winning? I was hoping part of the rebuilding would be simply seizing every penny of Russian assets currently frozen and giving them to Ukraine.
    - DocTomoe 4y ago
      Russian Forces have been hours from collapse ... for the last six months. Any day now. Eventually Ukraine will run out of Western goodwill and local manpower. If you are victorious until the last man and the last bullet, you still lose. > I was hoping part of the rebuilding would be simply seizing every penny of Russian assets currently frozen and giving them to Ukraine. That is not going to happen because it sets a dangerous precedent against other countries who do something like the Russians do now every five to ten years.
      - 0dayz 4y ago
        >Russian Forces have been hours from collapse ... for the last six months. Any day now. That's a strawman, nobody has said Russian Forces are on the brink of collapse, at most its been said that if russia continues the way it does, they won't be able to win the attrition war which will make the army collapse. >Eventually Ukraine will run out of Western goodwill and local manpower. If you are victorious until the last man and the last bullet, you still lose. The west will fold, while having had 20 years of investment in a failed state like Afghanistan?
        sonotathrowaway 4y ago
        It also completely ignores the monumental toll the war is having on Russia, the economic and political upheavals resulting from the war, and the political and social consequences of mobilization. Pretending like Russia is coping with this war fine flies in the face of reality.
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        If you think Russia is doing okay then why did they even start mobilisation at all?, surely the hasty mobilisation is a sign that the war is not going the way that they expect. The tanks that they are sending don't even use the same ammo, nor the same amount of tankers that the rest of the tanks that Russia uses. Thinks have to be going truely poorly for them to breaking them out.
      - michaelmrose 4y ago
- mikewarot 4y ago
  "Ingas is based in Marioupol. Its production site, linked to the Azovstal factory, was requisitioned in March 2022 by Russian forces. Cryoin is in Odessa, a city also under pressure. Even if the official communication from Intel and TSMC is reassuring, other information evokes a very problematic situation, especially at TSMC, which would be in a situation to slow down its production."[1] [1] https://en.overclocking.com/we-talk-again-about-neon-gas-and-the-consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine/ https://en.overclocking.com/we-talk-again-about-neon-gas-and...
frupert52 4y ago
I follow Peter Zeihan’s work quite closely too
- landoftheice 4y ago
- sonotathrowaway 4y ago
  You should balance it out with some Ian Bremmer, there’s plenty he says that is true but that doesn’t mean that the situation will unfold quite dramatically as he portends.
DoingIsLearning 4y ago
> The coming collapse of the German industrial system as it is starved of cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its chemical and energy inputs Citation needed? This is online news drama, other than BASF itself and the Aluminium industry please clarify what part of German Industry is so energy intensive that it would _collapse_ with constraint Energy production?
- sonotathrowaway 4y ago
  When you look at actual numbers instead of glib sound bites, the argument starts to fall apart pretty quickly: In 2019, gas imports via pipeline cost Germany $30 billion, representing only 0.75% of its GDP, and the overall value of the country’s gas consumption was below 2% of GDP. [https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/german-economy-low-energy-intensity-russian-gas-supplies-by-daniel-gros-2022-08 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/german-economy-...]
flohofwoe 4y ago
> cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its ... energy inputs This makes it sound like gas plays a huge role in German energy production when in reality it has been hovering between 10% and 15% since the late 90's
- torginus 4y ago
  Hydrocarbons are used in tons of chemical processes, not only to produce energy - in this sense they are not replacable.
- mikewarot 4y ago
  You skipped the word chemical... I had a hunch I should have spent 10 more minutes in edit... Chemical inputs from natural gas are the most important of those two, BASF is essentially pulling up stakes in Europe and hoping they survive the move to the US. https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0bf57 https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0b...
rsolva 4y ago
Hah, I expected to find a Zeihan-inspired reply close to the top and was not disappointed :)
impossiblefork 4y ago
While the German industrial system may well be at risk of collapse, what you've proposed is completely impossible. ASMLs technology is Dutch and German technology and it will never move anything to the US. It won't desired and it won't be allowed. Especially since the US has had part in causing these gas problems. Why would a Dutchman at ASML want to move to America, which is so culturally different and which has its own ruling class with which he has little connection? Furthermore, this is actual high-tech stuff, not industry, and it won't be affected by high electricity or gas prices.

selimthegrim 4y ago

I am pretty sure a grateful Ukraine is gonna hook us up with neon

DocTomoe 4y ago
Either Russia takes over, and then there's going to be a price hike for having been anti-Russian. Or Ukraine somehow survives, and then they have to rebuild ... leading to a price hike. They may be grateful, but they will also make us pay through the nose.
- michaelmrose 4y ago
  It might be opening a can of worms but how do you see Russia pulling off a victory after the abject failure so far. They are burning through assets trained and built over years. There is absolutely no reason to believe that their position or resources should improve over time. As it stands their logistics are a laughingstock incapable of effectively bringing a few few hundred thousand people effectively to bear on Ukraine. There is absolutely no reason to believe its up to bringing a larger force to bear. How do you see them possibly winning? I was hoping part of the rebuilding would be simply seizing every penny of Russian assets currently frozen and giving them to Ukraine.
  - DocTomoe 4y ago
    Russian Forces have been hours from collapse ... for the last six months. Any day now. Eventually Ukraine will run out of Western goodwill and local manpower. If you are victorious until the last man and the last bullet, you still lose. > I was hoping part of the rebuilding would be simply seizing every penny of Russian assets currently frozen and giving them to Ukraine. That is not going to happen because it sets a dangerous precedent against other countries who do something like the Russians do now every five to ten years.
    - 0dayz 4y ago
      >Russian Forces have been hours from collapse ... for the last six months. Any day now. That's a strawman, nobody has said Russian Forces are on the brink of collapse, at most its been said that if russia continues the way it does, they won't be able to win the attrition war which will make the army collapse. >Eventually Ukraine will run out of Western goodwill and local manpower. If you are victorious until the last man and the last bullet, you still lose. The west will fold, while having had 20 years of investment in a failed state like Afghanistan?
      - sonotathrowaway 4y ago
        It also completely ignores the monumental toll the war is having on Russia, the economic and political upheavals resulting from the war, and the political and social consequences of mobilization. Pretending like Russia is coping with this war fine flies in the face of reality.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      If you think Russia is doing okay then why did they even start mobilisation at all?, surely the hasty mobilisation is a sign that the war is not going the way that they expect. The tanks that they are sending don't even use the same ammo, nor the same amount of tankers that the rest of the tanks that Russia uses. Thinks have to be going truely poorly for them to breaking them out.
    - michaelmrose 4y ago
mikewarot 4y ago
"Ingas is based in Marioupol. Its production site, linked to the Azovstal factory, was requisitioned in March 2022 by Russian forces. Cryoin is in Odessa, a city also under pressure. Even if the official communication from Intel and TSMC is reassuring, other information evokes a very problematic situation, especially at TSMC, which would be in a situation to slow down its production."[1] [1] https://en.overclocking.com/we-talk-again-about-neon-gas-and-the-consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine/ https://en.overclocking.com/we-talk-again-about-neon-gas-and...

frupert52 4y ago

I follow Peter Zeihan’s work quite closely too

landoftheice 4y ago
sonotathrowaway 4y ago
You should balance it out with some Ian Bremmer, there’s plenty he says that is true but that doesn’t mean that the situation will unfold quite dramatically as he portends.

DoingIsLearning 4y ago

> The coming collapse of the German industrial system as it is starved of cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its chemical and energy inputs Citation needed? This is online news drama, other than BASF itself and the Aluminium industry please clarify what part of German Industry is so energy intensive that it would _collapse_ with constraint Energy production?

sonotathrowaway 4y ago
When you look at actual numbers instead of glib sound bites, the argument starts to fall apart pretty quickly: In 2019, gas imports via pipeline cost Germany $30 billion, representing only 0.75% of its GDP, and the overall value of the country’s gas consumption was below 2% of GDP. [https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/german-economy-low-energy-intensity-russian-gas-supplies-by-daniel-gros-2022-08 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/german-economy-...]

flohofwoe 4y ago

> cheap natural gas that formed the basis of its ... energy inputs This makes it sound like gas plays a huge role in German energy production when in reality it has been hovering between 10% and 15% since the late 90's

torginus 4y ago
Hydrocarbons are used in tons of chemical processes, not only to produce energy - in this sense they are not replacable.
mikewarot 4y ago
You skipped the word chemical... I had a hunch I should have spent 10 more minutes in edit... Chemical inputs from natural gas are the most important of those two, BASF is essentially pulling up stakes in Europe and hoping they survive the move to the US. https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0bf57 https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0b...

rsolva 4y ago

Hah, I expected to find a Zeihan-inspired reply close to the top and was not disappointed :)

impossiblefork 4y ago

While the German industrial system may well be at risk of collapse, what you've proposed is completely impossible. ASMLs technology is Dutch and German technology and it will never move anything to the US. It won't desired and it won't be allowed. Especially since the US has had part in causing these gas problems. Why would a Dutchman at ASML want to move to America, which is so culturally different and which has its own ruling class with which he has little connection? Furthermore, this is actual high-tech stuff, not industry, and it won't be affected by high electricity or gas prices.