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motivated to undermine US hegemony in IC production. That doesn’t seem to fit with yesterday’s announcement [1] of an increase to $40 billion investment into n

motivated to undermine US hegemony in IC production. That doesn’t seem to fit with yesterday’s announcement [1] of an increase to $40 billion investment into new U.S.-based fabs. If anything, I think the opposite is true. TSMC seems to be desperate to move capital out of Taiwan to cut down on the political risk. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33879416 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33879416

robocat 4y ago
Taiwan is hardly likely to give up their “Silicon Shield” https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Taiwan+Silicon-Shield https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Taiwan+Silicon-Shield - their investments made in the US are to stay in control, not to give up their objectives, and why not make a profit on the side? Morris Chang talks bluntly about this strategy - see YouTube. Or read “How TSMC has mastered the geopolitics of chipmaking - Make yourself indispensable to both America and China” - https://www.economist.com/business/2021/04/29/how-tsmc-has-mastered-the-geopolitics-of-chipmaking https://www.economist.com/business/2021/04/29/how-tsmc-has-m... or https://archive.ph/vVY9l https://archive.ph/vVY9l The US is paying for that car, and TSMC is making sure it keeps the keys: “In 2021, U.S. exports to Taiwan were $47.3 billion, and imports from Taiwan were $86.9 billion”. Also note Taiwan’s total imports of 381 billion USD in 2021. (Edit removed dumb sentence).
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  Wow, I didn't know the trade imbalance with Taiwan was so large. It is immense compared to its GDP! What do they do with all the dollars? (Before they announced 40B USD investment...) And how does the central bank keep the USD FX rate so stable? Hmmm.... I never heard the term "Silicon Shield" before. It is an interesting idea, but I don't believe it. I have posted on HN about this before: If China decides to lose its mind (like Russia invading Ukraine), they will do a naval blockade of Taiwan. Just like there is 21th century geopolitical world view before and after Russia's invasion ("no one saw it coming + everything is different now"), I predict a repeat for China & Taiwan. If anything, the 40B USD in US looks like a lifeline. Pure speculation: TSMC execs met with Taiwan gov't cabinet-level ministers (and maybe US too) and decided: <<If China invades, everything we have here is gone. We need to "terraform" a parallel industrial stack in another country.>> This investment looks like the world's most expensive nuclear bomb shelter.

robocat 4y ago

Taiwan is hardly likely to give up their “Silicon Shield” https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Taiwan+Silicon-Shield https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Taiwan+Silicon-Shield - their investments made in the US are to stay in control, not to give up their objectives, and why not make a profit on the side? Morris Chang talks bluntly about this strategy - see YouTube. Or read “How TSMC has mastered the geopolitics of chipmaking - Make yourself indispensable to both America and China” - https://www.economist.com/business/2021/04/29/how-tsmc-has-mastered-the-geopolitics-of-chipmaking https://www.economist.com/business/2021/04/29/how-tsmc-has-m... or https://archive.ph/vVY9l https://archive.ph/vVY9l The US is paying for that car, and TSMC is making sure it keeps the keys: “In 2021, U.S. exports to Taiwan were $47.3 billion, and imports from Taiwan were $86.9 billion”. Also note Taiwan’s total imports of 381 billion USD in 2021. (Edit removed dumb sentence).

throwaway2037 4y ago
Wow, I didn't know the trade imbalance with Taiwan was so large. It is immense compared to its GDP! What do they do with all the dollars? (Before they announced 40B USD investment...) And how does the central bank keep the USD FX rate so stable? Hmmm.... I never heard the term "Silicon Shield" before. It is an interesting idea, but I don't believe it. I have posted on HN about this before: If China decides to lose its mind (like Russia invading Ukraine), they will do a naval blockade of Taiwan. Just like there is 21th century geopolitical world view before and after Russia's invasion ("no one saw it coming + everything is different now"), I predict a repeat for China & Taiwan. If anything, the 40B USD in US looks like a lifeline. Pure speculation: TSMC execs met with Taiwan gov't cabinet-level ministers (and maybe US too) and decided: <<If China invades, everything we have here is gone. We need to "terraform" a parallel industrial stack in another country.>> This investment looks like the world's most expensive nuclear bomb shelter.