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I am reading an well argued book saying the same thing: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning - Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan. He

I am reading an well argued book saying the same thing: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning - Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan. He argues that international trade competition will withdraw the U.S. from international sea trade patrolling and peace keeping military operations and will weaken the institutions created by the Breton Woods treaty. Interesting read but still not convinced. The book was written before Putin had that stupid idea. Let's see how does it play out.

UncleOxidant 4y ago
I find that Zeihan has some interesting insights, but I also often find that he seems to be a little too confident in some of his predictions. He often times comes off as being very positive about the US outlook, but very pessimistic about the rest of the world. And sure, the US has a better demographic situation than China and Russia and that's going to be bad for them, but it's not like they don't have any cards to play.
- marmetio 4y ago
  And now you know how to properly use his analysis. The service he provides is to brief US-centric companies on potential geopolitical trends, risks, and opportunities. You'd be misusing the information if you had little business with the US, or expected a crystal ball.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  His reasoning seems rock solid to me. It is factually true that the US has built-in geographic security. It is also true that the US has a culture of immigration which makes it easier to keep demographic decline at bay, compared to, say, China.
  - VancouverMan 4y ago
    Immigration is a double-edged sword. Bringing in educated, skilled, productive, and socially-compatible individuals can certainly help a nation and its economy. On the other hand, bringing in unskilled, unproductive, and socially-incompatible individuals can very quickly become a total disaster for a nation and its economy, too. There's not much room for error. The negative impacts of allowing in just one additional unsuitable individual can easily cancel out the positive contributions of several productive individuals.
- enaaem 4y ago
  He correctly predicted the Russia-Ukraine war 8 years ago. The idea is that Russia will lose around 20% of its young male demographic (20-35y) between 2020 and 2030, so it’s the only time window they can start a major war. The outlook of Russian and Chinese demographics isn’t just worst than the US. It’s one of the worst in the world with a sudden decline in working age population in the upcoming 1-2 decades, while at the same time not having first world economies.
  - s3000 4y ago
    What is a first world economy and why would China be better off with one? China used their export economy to gain the manufacturing knowledge. What would happen if they turn inwards and not allocate their workers on export goods? Which critical infrastructure besides the most modern chips can't they produce? There must be a surplus of workers as long as China has the hukou system. If they can offer free movement to all of their citizens within 1-2 decades, wouldn't that be a good outlook? Russia on the other hand doesn't look good but as the energy and food supplier of China, do they have to maintain their demographics?
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Many analysts predicted RU/UKR war 10+ years ago just on premise of NATO encroachment without factoring in demographics. Fact they executed a special operation on the cheap with a few 100,000 men reflect they weren't preparing for last major war before demographic window closes. Arguably with how much unmanned platforms have proliferated, RU could have waited even longer. >Chinese demographics isn’t just worst than the US. It’s one of the worst in the world with a sudden decline in working age population in the upcoming 1-2 decades, while at the same time not having first world economies. Naive analysis of demographic pyramid, especially with respect to great powers competition, for which I'd argue PRC has probably the most potent demographic trend in recorded human history: 1) PRC is generating as much STEM / high skilled talent as OECD countries combined, and magnitude more than US can absorb via births + immigration even with low TFR. Hence all the news in recent years of PRC closing academic, S&T gap and moving up value chain. 2) reduction in absolute population numbers = less import dependencies and more strategic flexbility. Meanwhile Chinese households has some of highest savings rates while industry has high automation adoption to weather population decline vs west whose onerous first world safety nets that are likely not sustainable long term. More skilled people + even less unskilled people for country has excess people wants to reduce net resource imports = recipe for improving strategic competitiveness. Also note that developed PRC coastal region are functionally first world economies with capacities that are rapidly closing gap with US+co. The useful lens to evaluate PRC demographics is that roughly every decade for the next several decades, the internal talent mix is replacing a Nigeria with a Japan, sure less aggregate people, but more skilled people, still a substantial amount with PRC pop denominator. And people who structure their finances without expectation of first world welfare coverage. That gives PRC better demographic trend vs US for closing relative strength gap for strategic competition in the coming decades. A more broader comment on Zeihan is outside of US, he is a generalist and rarely know enough about the POLITCS to really credibly comment on global geoPOLITICS. Like imagine trying to sell his audience US is blessed with river networks and deep coasts for ports and then neglect to mention PRC actually has the most navigable river networks and advanced ports. That's the politics in geopolitics. Politics can shape geography and demography which apart from very extreme cases, are far from destiny.
- janef0421 4y ago
  I don't see why demographics would be regarded as so important to industrialised societies. The bulk of labour power in those societies comes from machines, not physically fit young people. In such a society, an older population is not a downside, and can in fact be an upside, as older people often have more technical expertise for developing and maintaining those machines. The only reason it's considered bad is because the system of socially-subsidised retirement leads to older people being artificially unproductive, but that's just one way of supporting the elderly; It would be feasible to institute a new system where aging people are given stronger labour protections, and are provided with support to change their patterns of work in response to changes to their physical and mental capabilities. Many would even see this as a positive thing, since work can provide a sense of meaning and retirement can be a major stressor.
mpsprd 4y ago
If you enjoy the read but require more convincing, I recommend following his newsletter. For instance, his analysis on crude oil price caps posted today point towards the instability of international trade and de-globalization. Very interesting insights.
- taftster 4y ago
  https://zeihan.com/newsletter/ https://zeihan.com/newsletter/
efields 4y ago
Zeihan has been prescient for a while but is rarely quoted in anything mainstream, which makes me feel like I’m missing something about him.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  What you're missing is that the mainstream media doesn't know "prescient" until after it's already in the past.
- gscott 4y ago
  His pony tail is the issue. It is holding him back!
HDThoreaun 4y ago
I generally find Zeihan to be a quack. He's certainly got some interesting ideas, but his thoughts on china seem to be misguided and his american nationalism distracts him from the truth.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I also find him to be too harsh on China, but their inane zero-covid policies, the infighting within the CCP, and the recent spate of protests make me think that he might be right all along.
  - horseAMcharlie 4y ago
    Kotkin spoke to the Hoover Institute in Q1 this year about China and he had the insight that in any communist country you can't be half communist. It's a binary choice which means there's almost no opportunity for centrist constituencies to arise. The only constituencies are pro-central government, anti-central government and apathetic. This makes government legitimacy the central political object that almost all political discourse revolves around, whether there happens to be a taboo in acknowledging it or not. Following this, policy mistakes become comparatively much harder to reverse in communist countries than in liberal/illiberal democracies, monarchies and pseudo-monarchies. with Chinese characteristics.
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    >the infighting within the CCP, Every nation's leadership, and every political party, has infighting. Just look at all the infighting in US politics: it's a complete mess, and it's really dragging the US down. The US might be able to weather it better because of its stronger economy, but that's not a sure thing.
- riversflow 4y ago
  I'm genuinely curious to hear a more detailed critique. What is "the truth"?
- theflyinghorse 4y ago
  That is because Zeihan sells geopolitics porn for Americans.
horseAMcharlie 4y ago
I'd argue that PZ's idea of what globalization is is v. different to Morris Chang's idea of what it is.
taftster 4y ago
My (recent) introduction to Zeihan was this talk he gave to pig farmers. https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI The audio is a little rough, but it's worth the watch (in my opinion). Yeah, he comes across as a bit forward and a bit nationalistic, and clearly not every prediction is going to land, but I think he's got some really good observations and seems fairly credible. Better at least than most of the talking-heads you see on the news.

UncleOxidant 4y ago

I find that Zeihan has some interesting insights, but I also often find that he seems to be a little too confident in some of his predictions. He often times comes off as being very positive about the US outlook, but very pessimistic about the rest of the world. And sure, the US has a better demographic situation than China and Russia and that's going to be bad for them, but it's not like they don't have any cards to play.

marmetio 4y ago
And now you know how to properly use his analysis. The service he provides is to brief US-centric companies on potential geopolitical trends, risks, and opportunities. You'd be misusing the information if you had little business with the US, or expected a crystal ball.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
His reasoning seems rock solid to me. It is factually true that the US has built-in geographic security. It is also true that the US has a culture of immigration which makes it easier to keep demographic decline at bay, compared to, say, China.
- VancouverMan 4y ago
  Immigration is a double-edged sword. Bringing in educated, skilled, productive, and socially-compatible individuals can certainly help a nation and its economy. On the other hand, bringing in unskilled, unproductive, and socially-incompatible individuals can very quickly become a total disaster for a nation and its economy, too. There's not much room for error. The negative impacts of allowing in just one additional unsuitable individual can easily cancel out the positive contributions of several productive individuals.
enaaem 4y ago
He correctly predicted the Russia-Ukraine war 8 years ago. The idea is that Russia will lose around 20% of its young male demographic (20-35y) between 2020 and 2030, so it’s the only time window they can start a major war. The outlook of Russian and Chinese demographics isn’t just worst than the US. It’s one of the worst in the world with a sudden decline in working age population in the upcoming 1-2 decades, while at the same time not having first world economies.
- s3000 4y ago
  What is a first world economy and why would China be better off with one? China used their export economy to gain the manufacturing knowledge. What would happen if they turn inwards and not allocate their workers on export goods? Which critical infrastructure besides the most modern chips can't they produce? There must be a surplus of workers as long as China has the hukou system. If they can offer free movement to all of their citizens within 1-2 decades, wouldn't that be a good outlook? Russia on the other hand doesn't look good but as the energy and food supplier of China, do they have to maintain their demographics?
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Many analysts predicted RU/UKR war 10+ years ago just on premise of NATO encroachment without factoring in demographics. Fact they executed a special operation on the cheap with a few 100,000 men reflect they weren't preparing for last major war before demographic window closes. Arguably with how much unmanned platforms have proliferated, RU could have waited even longer. >Chinese demographics isn’t just worst than the US. It’s one of the worst in the world with a sudden decline in working age population in the upcoming 1-2 decades, while at the same time not having first world economies. Naive analysis of demographic pyramid, especially with respect to great powers competition, for which I'd argue PRC has probably the most potent demographic trend in recorded human history: 1) PRC is generating as much STEM / high skilled talent as OECD countries combined, and magnitude more than US can absorb via births + immigration even with low TFR. Hence all the news in recent years of PRC closing academic, S&T gap and moving up value chain. 2) reduction in absolute population numbers = less import dependencies and more strategic flexbility. Meanwhile Chinese households has some of highest savings rates while industry has high automation adoption to weather population decline vs west whose onerous first world safety nets that are likely not sustainable long term. More skilled people + even less unskilled people for country has excess people wants to reduce net resource imports = recipe for improving strategic competitiveness. Also note that developed PRC coastal region are functionally first world economies with capacities that are rapidly closing gap with US+co. The useful lens to evaluate PRC demographics is that roughly every decade for the next several decades, the internal talent mix is replacing a Nigeria with a Japan, sure less aggregate people, but more skilled people, still a substantial amount with PRC pop denominator. And people who structure their finances without expectation of first world welfare coverage. That gives PRC better demographic trend vs US for closing relative strength gap for strategic competition in the coming decades. A more broader comment on Zeihan is outside of US, he is a generalist and rarely know enough about the POLITCS to really credibly comment on global geoPOLITICS. Like imagine trying to sell his audience US is blessed with river networks and deep coasts for ports and then neglect to mention PRC actually has the most navigable river networks and advanced ports. That's the politics in geopolitics. Politics can shape geography and demography which apart from very extreme cases, are far from destiny.
janef0421 4y ago
I don't see why demographics would be regarded as so important to industrialised societies. The bulk of labour power in those societies comes from machines, not physically fit young people. In such a society, an older population is not a downside, and can in fact be an upside, as older people often have more technical expertise for developing and maintaining those machines. The only reason it's considered bad is because the system of socially-subsidised retirement leads to older people being artificially unproductive, but that's just one way of supporting the elderly; It would be feasible to institute a new system where aging people are given stronger labour protections, and are provided with support to change their patterns of work in response to changes to their physical and mental capabilities. Many would even see this as a positive thing, since work can provide a sense of meaning and retirement can be a major stressor.

mpsprd 4y ago

If you enjoy the read but require more convincing, I recommend following his newsletter. For instance, his analysis on crude oil price caps posted today point towards the instability of international trade and de-globalization. Very interesting insights.

taftster 4y ago
https://zeihan.com/newsletter/ https://zeihan.com/newsletter/

efields 4y ago

Zeihan has been prescient for a while but is rarely quoted in anything mainstream, which makes me feel like I’m missing something about him.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
What you're missing is that the mainstream media doesn't know "prescient" until after it's already in the past.
gscott 4y ago
His pony tail is the issue. It is holding him back!

HDThoreaun 4y ago

I generally find Zeihan to be a quack. He's certainly got some interesting ideas, but his thoughts on china seem to be misguided and his american nationalism distracts him from the truth.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
I also find him to be too harsh on China, but their inane zero-covid policies, the infighting within the CCP, and the recent spate of protests make me think that he might be right all along.
- horseAMcharlie 4y ago
  Kotkin spoke to the Hoover Institute in Q1 this year about China and he had the insight that in any communist country you can't be half communist. It's a binary choice which means there's almost no opportunity for centrist constituencies to arise. The only constituencies are pro-central government, anti-central government and apathetic. This makes government legitimacy the central political object that almost all political discourse revolves around, whether there happens to be a taboo in acknowledging it or not. Following this, policy mistakes become comparatively much harder to reverse in communist countries than in liberal/illiberal democracies, monarchies and pseudo-monarchies. with Chinese characteristics.
- midoridensha 4y ago
  >the infighting within the CCP, Every nation's leadership, and every political party, has infighting. Just look at all the infighting in US politics: it's a complete mess, and it's really dragging the US down. The US might be able to weather it better because of its stronger economy, but that's not a sure thing.
riversflow 4y ago
I'm genuinely curious to hear a more detailed critique. What is "the truth"?
theflyinghorse 4y ago
That is because Zeihan sells geopolitics porn for Americans.

horseAMcharlie 4y ago

I'd argue that PZ's idea of what globalization is is v. different to Morris Chang's idea of what it is.

taftster 4y ago

My (recent) introduction to Zeihan was this talk he gave to pig farmers. https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI The audio is a little rough, but it's worth the watch (in my opinion). Yeah, he comes across as a bit forward and a bit nationalistic, and clearly not every prediction is going to land, but I think he's got some really good observations and seems fairly credible. Better at least than most of the talking-heads you see on the news.