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You're conflating things together and missing the plot. I was comparing the teacher evaluations given by teacher unions to the evaluations of teachers based on

You're conflating things together and missing the plot. I was comparing the teacher evaluations given by teacher unions to the evaluations of teachers based on student improvement over time on standardized tests. You, on the other hand, changed the subject slightly, which is fine, but then you use the phrase "grades given by unionized teachers", which makes no sense. All the studies you cited talk GPAs in general. Whether the teachers doing the grading are unionized or not is not mentioned or relevant. If you're going to have a discussion, you should take care to use more careful language. It looks like you're trying to be deceiving in order to prop up teacher's unions. I clicked on your first study and it doesn't even do any analysis on GPA as a predictor of future success relative to other standardized tests. In fact, it assumes this as true and then tries to explain why. It also looks like a low-quality paper published at conference without peer review. I clicked on your second link. It's not peer reviewed. It only examines data from one university. It has a very small sample size. It has zero citations. It reaches conclusions that are contrary to existing literature. It does not look like it should be taken seriously. I decided at this point to stop wasting my time. If your first two citations are so weak, I don't have much confidence in the others.

eesmith 4y ago
> I was comparing the teacher evaluations given by teacher unions to the evaluations of teachers based on student improvement over time on standardized tests. Wait. You were comparing the evaluations of teachers based on how teacher unions ranked them, compared to the evaluation of teachers based on the standardized test scores for their students? How is that at all useful? Why are teacher unions ranking teachers? How does that affect anything? How are standardized tests - which aren't designed as a measure of teacher effectiveness - at all relevant, and not full of noise? We know methods like VAM (Value-Added Models) are extremely easy to misuse - so easy the American Statistical Association points how how it's difficult to apply them to ranking teacher effectiveness (see https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/POL-ASAVAM-Statement.pdf https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/POL-ASAVAM-Statement.p... ). Why should I believe this book you cite - which seems to be written by a journalist and not a statistician - does a good job of it? > then you use the phrase "grades given by unionized teachers", which makes no sense. That's because I didn't understand what your argument was. The usual argument is "teachers unions mean teachers are bad at their jobs so we can't trust their judgement and GPA. Instead, we need to look to standardized tests." That's the argument I thought you were making. > it doesn't even do any analysis on GPA as a predictor of future success relative to other standardized tests No, it doesn't. It does give the citation: Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009 . But https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400831463/html https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400831463... is behind a paywall. If you want to argue that the summary of the citation I gave is a poor interpretation of the research, then go ahead. But then I can say that your summary of the book you read is also wrong. A book which I also cannot read. And which does not appear to be peer reviewed. > It's not peer reviewed. It only examines data from one university. Thing is, the second link also gives citations to other research. ] If standardized testing is not as reliable a measure of student success, as proposed by the researchers previously cited ... Hodara and Lewis (2017) concluded that HSGPA was a better predictor of college performance than standardized exam scores, especially for students who enter college within a year of completing high school. These are not meant to be read in a vacuum, but as an indication that the certainty you state is far from established.
- PathOfEclipse 4y ago
  It seems like you're not at all understanding what I've been saying. The measure of teacher performance was based on student improvement over time on standardized tests. It is incredibly valuable to measure a teacher's capability in actually helping students learn and improve. After all, isn't that the sole purpose of teaching? > That's because I didn't understand what your argument was. The usual argument is "teachers unions mean teachers are bad at their jobs so we can't trust their judgement and GPA. Instead, we need to look to standardized tests." That's the argument I thought you were making. Yes, and we've also gone pretty far off-topic from what I was originally talking about at this point. > No, it doesn't. It does give the citation: Then why not lead with that citation and not the very weak conference paper that you chose to lead with? Anyways, you may be right about GPA currently being a better predictor of academic success than the ACT. But, as this article explains: https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2020/02/gpa-or-sat-two-measures-are-better-than-one/ https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2020/02/gpa-or-sat-two-measu... "In an extended version of their essay, Kuncel and Sackett acknowledge that GPA is the best predictor of student success, but they add: “Even better prediction is obtained by the combination of test scores and high school grade point average.” “Human behavior is notoriously difficult to forecast,” they write, “it would be strange for a single predictor to be the only one that matters. So it is also valuable to consider, whenever possible, how predictors combine in foretelling student success.” If I were to further research this subject, I'd probably start with this book: https://www.amazon.com/Measuring-Success-Testing-College-Admissions/dp/1421424967/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1538578331&sr=8-1&keywords=measuring+success https://www.amazon.com/Measuring-Success-Testing-College-Adm... "Although the test-optional movement has received ample attention, its claims have rarely been subjected to empirical scrutiny. This volume provides a much-needed evaluation of the use and value of standardized admissions tests in an era of widespread grade inflation. It will be of great value to those seeking to strike the proper balance between uniformity and fairness in higher education." Edit: also found this article interesting: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-22/grades-vs-sat-scores-which-is-a-better-predictor-of-college-success https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-22/grades-v... One person is quoted as pointing out that an advantage using the SAT is that it can help combat grade inflation because it looks bad to have a really high GPA but really low SAT score. It's also been shown over time that the average GPA keeps going up while SAT scores are flat or declining. Grade inflation is a major problem, and the use of standardized test does help with it.

eesmith 4y ago

> I was comparing the teacher evaluations given by teacher unions to the evaluations of teachers based on student improvement over time on standardized tests. Wait. You were comparing the evaluations of teachers based on how teacher unions ranked them, compared to the evaluation of teachers based on the standardized test scores for their students? How is that at all useful? Why are teacher unions ranking teachers? How does that affect anything? How are standardized tests - which aren't designed as a measure of teacher effectiveness - at all relevant, and not full of noise? We know methods like VAM (Value-Added Models) are extremely easy to misuse - so easy the American Statistical Association points how how it's difficult to apply them to ranking teacher effectiveness (see https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/POL-ASAVAM-Statement.pdf https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/POL-ASAVAM-Statement.p... ). Why should I believe this book you cite - which seems to be written by a journalist and not a statistician - does a good job of it? > then you use the phrase "grades given by unionized teachers", which makes no sense. That's because I didn't understand what your argument was. The usual argument is "teachers unions mean teachers are bad at their jobs so we can't trust their judgement and GPA. Instead, we need to look to standardized tests." That's the argument I thought you were making. > it doesn't even do any analysis on GPA as a predictor of future success relative to other standardized tests No, it doesn't. It does give the citation: Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009 . But https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400831463/html https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400831463... is behind a paywall. If you want to argue that the summary of the citation I gave is a poor interpretation of the research, then go ahead. But then I can say that your summary of the book you read is also wrong. A book which I also cannot read. And which does not appear to be peer reviewed. > It's not peer reviewed. It only examines data from one university. Thing is, the second link also gives citations to other research. ] If standardized testing is not as reliable a measure of student success, as proposed by the researchers previously cited ... Hodara and Lewis (2017) concluded that HSGPA was a better predictor of college performance than standardized exam scores, especially for students who enter college within a year of completing high school. These are not meant to be read in a vacuum, but as an indication that the certainty you state is far from established.

PathOfEclipse 4y ago
It seems like you're not at all understanding what I've been saying. The measure of teacher performance was based on student improvement over time on standardized tests. It is incredibly valuable to measure a teacher's capability in actually helping students learn and improve. After all, isn't that the sole purpose of teaching? > That's because I didn't understand what your argument was. The usual argument is "teachers unions mean teachers are bad at their jobs so we can't trust their judgement and GPA. Instead, we need to look to standardized tests." That's the argument I thought you were making. Yes, and we've also gone pretty far off-topic from what I was originally talking about at this point. > No, it doesn't. It does give the citation: Then why not lead with that citation and not the very weak conference paper that you chose to lead with? Anyways, you may be right about GPA currently being a better predictor of academic success than the ACT. But, as this article explains: https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2020/02/gpa-or-sat-two-measures-are-better-than-one/ https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2020/02/gpa-or-sat-two-measu... "In an extended version of their essay, Kuncel and Sackett acknowledge that GPA is the best predictor of student success, but they add: “Even better prediction is obtained by the combination of test scores and high school grade point average.” “Human behavior is notoriously difficult to forecast,” they write, “it would be strange for a single predictor to be the only one that matters. So it is also valuable to consider, whenever possible, how predictors combine in foretelling student success.” If I were to further research this subject, I'd probably start with this book: https://www.amazon.com/Measuring-Success-Testing-College-Admissions/dp/1421424967/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1538578331&sr=8-1&keywords=measuring+success https://www.amazon.com/Measuring-Success-Testing-College-Adm... "Although the test-optional movement has received ample attention, its claims have rarely been subjected to empirical scrutiny. This volume provides a much-needed evaluation of the use and value of standardized admissions tests in an era of widespread grade inflation. It will be of great value to those seeking to strike the proper balance between uniformity and fairness in higher education." Edit: also found this article interesting: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-22/grades-vs-sat-scores-which-is-a-better-predictor-of-college-success https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-22/grades-v... One person is quoted as pointing out that an advantage using the SAT is that it can help combat grade inflation because it looks bad to have a really high GPA but really low SAT score. It's also been shown over time that the average GPA keeps going up while SAT scores are flat or declining. Grade inflation is a major problem, and the use of standardized test does help with it.