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I think that depends how much build-out you have to do in order to install the kind of capacity required for a $40B semiconductor fab, which would hypotheticall

I think that depends how much build-out you have to do in order to install the kind of capacity required for a $40B semiconductor fab, which would hypothetically need some kind of major energy storage infrastructure or backup source in the event that solar is the main source of electricity. > Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour, which is more than many automotive plants or oil refineries do. [0] If a fab is running at that consumption rate for twenty hours every day for one year, it will consume approximately all of Arizona's 735,000 MWh of annual utility-scale solar, wind, and geothermal net electricity generation. [1] Contrast that with the annual hydroelectric generation of Itaipu Dam in South America, at 79,440,000 MWh in 2019. [2] [0] https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/operations/pdfs/bringing_fabenergyefficiency.ashx https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_serv... [pdf] [1] https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ [2] https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectric/ https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectr...

CydeWeys 4y ago
> Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour Ooof, this kind of writing where the author doesn't understand units just gets my goat. Just say it uses 100 MW! Geez.
- totalZero 4y ago
  I prefer it as written, because the additional information of timeframe for measurement indicates that the author is not talking about momentary/peak power.
  - j_walter 4y ago
    Which indicates the author knows nothing about how semiconductor fabs use power. Power usage is stable with a few percent...and 100MW is really on the low side for this fab. If all 6 phases are completed as they are expected to be...it's more like 250MW.
    - totalZero 4y ago
      I think we can forgive the author for the low estimate considering that this project didn't exist publicly at the time of writing. How does power usage remain stable in a fab? Please say more about how that works.
      - j_walter 4y ago
        Much of the power is used for keeping air clean with temperature and humidity controlled in a very tight range. More energy is used for water cooling, waste treatment and other facilities. The rest of the power is used for production tools...which when a fab is running are generally consistent users. The power usage will scale with wafer loading, but again advanced fabs like these will run at near 100% capacity for years at a time.
  - CydeWeys 4y ago
    I'd still much rather see "100 MW continuous" over "100 megawatt-hours of power each hour". And the former actually tells you a lot more than the latter, as with the latter it could be bursty (e.g. much more than 100 MW momentary draw), which would be a lot harder to supply. Fortunately for everyone the power draw is actually steady.
thehappypm 4y ago
Here is a solar plant in California, which broke ground over a decade ago, that produces 550 MW of power, for $2.5B. Build even a small version of one of these and its 100 MW power needs are met. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm
- Turing_Machine 4y ago
  The 550 MW "nameplate capacity" is peak. The capacity factor of 26.6% means that it actually only produces about 146 MW on average. Nuclear power plants generally have a capacity factor above 90%.
  - thehappypm 4y ago
    146 MW on average is still more than this facility needs.
    - pfortuny 4y ago
      Not during the night and not when it is cloudy. Averages are vey bad numbers for something which is on 24/7.
      - wewtyflakes 4y ago
        Do the plants typically run at night? Also, doesn't the capacity factor account for these variations already?
        Turing_Machine 4y ago
        No, you would need a large storage facility as well. A nameplate capacity of 550 MW with a capacity factor of only 26% almost certainly means there are a lot of times when it isn't generating any power at all, or at least none to speak of.
        4y ago
HDThoreaun 4y ago
Solar farms are one of the fastest electricity generators to build. AZ will have no problem stepping up production in the face of demand.
computah4eva 4y ago
Your EIA source is for generation in the month of august only. Total solar generation in Arizona is much higher than that. Very roughy 1,500x nameplate capacity = total annual generation in Arizona. 5,600 mw capacity in 2021, 8,400,000 mwh annual generation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Arizona https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Arizona All fabs have battery backup regardless of power source, although with solar you would need a much larger one indeed. Either way, the scale of solar power generation easily supports these new fabs. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/generatorcosts/ https://www.eia.gov/electricity/generatorcosts/ Cost is ~1,65B per GW of solar. 30% subsidy from government = ~1.1B per GW to generate ~ 1,500,000 mwh. They’re dirt cheap. Unfortunately battery storage, while it exists at this level, is more in the range of 800M to be safe (1600 mwh of storage). https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design So all power infrastructure would be less than 5% of the cost of the plant, and that’s overbuilding solar needs by 4x (meaning even on the crappiest day power wise you’ll have more than enough) and having 16 hours of backup power which is also overkill.

CydeWeys 4y ago

> Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour Ooof, this kind of writing where the author doesn't understand units just gets my goat. Just say it uses 100 MW! Geez.

totalZero 4y ago
I prefer it as written, because the additional information of timeframe for measurement indicates that the author is not talking about momentary/peak power.
- j_walter 4y ago
  Which indicates the author knows nothing about how semiconductor fabs use power. Power usage is stable with a few percent...and 100MW is really on the low side for this fab. If all 6 phases are completed as they are expected to be...it's more like 250MW.
  - totalZero 4y ago
    I think we can forgive the author for the low estimate considering that this project didn't exist publicly at the time of writing. How does power usage remain stable in a fab? Please say more about how that works.
    - j_walter 4y ago
      Much of the power is used for keeping air clean with temperature and humidity controlled in a very tight range. More energy is used for water cooling, waste treatment and other facilities. The rest of the power is used for production tools...which when a fab is running are generally consistent users. The power usage will scale with wafer loading, but again advanced fabs like these will run at near 100% capacity for years at a time.
- CydeWeys 4y ago
  I'd still much rather see "100 MW continuous" over "100 megawatt-hours of power each hour". And the former actually tells you a lot more than the latter, as with the latter it could be bursty (e.g. much more than 100 MW momentary draw), which would be a lot harder to supply. Fortunately for everyone the power draw is actually steady.

thehappypm 4y ago

Here is a solar plant in California, which broke ground over a decade ago, that produces 550 MW of power, for $2.5B. Build even a small version of one of these and its 100 MW power needs are met. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm

Turing_Machine 4y ago
The 550 MW "nameplate capacity" is peak. The capacity factor of 26.6% means that it actually only produces about 146 MW on average. Nuclear power plants generally have a capacity factor above 90%.
- thehappypm 4y ago
  146 MW on average is still more than this facility needs.
  - pfortuny 4y ago
    Not during the night and not when it is cloudy. Averages are vey bad numbers for something which is on 24/7.
    - wewtyflakes 4y ago
      Do the plants typically run at night? Also, doesn't the capacity factor account for these variations already?
      - Turing_Machine 4y ago
        No, you would need a large storage facility as well. A nameplate capacity of 550 MW with a capacity factor of only 26% almost certainly means there are a lot of times when it isn't generating any power at all, or at least none to speak of.
        4y ago

HDThoreaun 4y ago

Solar farms are one of the fastest electricity generators to build. AZ will have no problem stepping up production in the face of demand.

computah4eva 4y ago

Your EIA source is for generation in the month of august only. Total solar generation in Arizona is much higher than that. Very roughy 1,500x nameplate capacity = total annual generation in Arizona. 5,600 mw capacity in 2021, 8,400,000 mwh annual generation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Arizona https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Arizona All fabs have battery backup regardless of power source, although with solar you would need a much larger one indeed. Either way, the scale of solar power generation easily supports these new fabs. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/generatorcosts/ https://www.eia.gov/electricity/generatorcosts/ Cost is ~1,65B per GW of solar. 30% subsidy from government = ~1.1B per GW to generate ~ 1,500,000 mwh. They’re dirt cheap. Unfortunately battery storage, while it exists at this level, is more in the range of 800M to be safe (1600 mwh of storage). https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design So all power infrastructure would be less than 5% of the cost of the plant, and that’s overbuilding solar needs by 4x (meaning even on the crappiest day power wise you’ll have more than enough) and having 16 hours of backup power which is also overkill.