6 ms·

It would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona.

thehappypm 4y ago
Isn’t solar the cheapest energy per KwH? A sunny place like Arizona with tons of empty space should be able to cheaply deploy lots of energy.
- samcheng 4y ago
  The cheapest energy is from a hydroelectric plant built generations ago. Fun fact: That's why Boeing first built their planes outside Seattle - the electricity needed to refine the aluminum was cheap. These days, you can see that effect in the large datacenters that have sprung up near the Columbia River in Oregon. I'd guess TSMC's siting decision had a lot to do with tax breaks, labor pool, and cheap land.
  - atlasunshrugged 4y ago
    Probably also hedging for geopolitical risk? Not sure how only having facilities in a country at least somewhat likely to be invaded in the next few years affects the stock price but it probably doesn't hurt to put one in the middle of a country very unlikely to be invaded and very likely to want to purchase chips built domestically.
    - gct 4y ago
      Fun fact most experts consider the US uninvadable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_United_States#Geographic_feasibility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_United_States#...
      - TedDoesntTalk 4y ago
        Another fun fact. There were incursions on both US coasts during WWII. Neither were significant: Long Island, Florida, and Maine invasion by nazi spies swimming to shore from German submarines: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/nazi-saboteurs-and-george-dasch#:~:text=Four%20men%2C%20led%20by%20George,%3B%20and%20Richard%20Quirin%2C%2034 https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/nazi-saboteurs-and-.... Japanese in Attu and Kiska islands in Alaska: https://www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-the-aleutian-islands https://www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-t...
  - antonjs 4y ago
    Cheap, seismically stable, land.
- totalZero 4y ago
  I think that depends how much build-out you have to do in order to install the kind of capacity required for a $40B semiconductor fab, which would hypothetically need some kind of major energy storage infrastructure or backup source in the event that solar is the main source of electricity. > Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour, which is more than many automotive plants or oil refineries do. [0] If a fab is running at that consumption rate for twenty hours every day for one year, it will consume approximately all of Arizona's 735,000 MWh of annual utility-scale solar, wind, and geothermal net electricity generation. [1] Contrast that with the annual hydroelectric generation of Itaipu Dam in South America, at 79,440,000 MWh in 2019. [2] [0] https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/operations/pdfs/bringing_fabenergyefficiency.ashx https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_serv... [pdf] [1] https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ [2] https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectric/ https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectr...
  - CydeWeys 4y ago
    > Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour Ooof, this kind of writing where the author doesn't understand units just gets my goat. Just say it uses 100 MW! Geez.
    - totalZero 4y ago
      I prefer it as written, because the additional information of timeframe for measurement indicates that the author is not talking about momentary/peak power.
      - j_walter 4y ago
        Which indicates the author knows nothing about how semiconductor fabs use power. Power usage is stable with a few percent...and 100MW is really on the low side for this fab. If all 6 phases are completed as they are expected to be...it's more like 250MW.
- zdw 4y ago
  There's also a nuclear plant nearby in AZ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_... Nuclear + Solar seems like it would be a pretty ideal mix in a hot climate, especially given that peak demand for air conditioning coincides with solar maximum output, and Nuclear could handle some of the base/overnight load.
  - StreamBright 4y ago
    It is but you also need controllable components with the ability to quickly change output performance when building solar as your peak source. Usually this means gas turbines, in some cases this could also mean battery.
  - jfghi 4y ago
    Do these plants not require tons of water?
    - zdw 4y ago
      from the wikipedia link - they use sewage/greywater for cooling: > The power plant evaporates the water from the treated sewage from several nearby cities and towns to provide the cooling of the steam that it produces.
      - miguelazo 4y ago
        This treated sewage is the water that Vegas now provides for general use, and what AZ will need just for its people in about 5 years. Wasting it on chip production is going to go over slightly better than the Saudis wasting groundwater on alfalfa.
        thehappypm 4y ago
        They could literally truck Evian water in if they wanted to. Water is extremely cheap compared to just about every substance on earth, and it’s hard to imagine that water costs can be a problem for this type of operation.
wikibob 4y ago
Seismic activity
intrasight 4y ago
Also, I would think that lots of water is needed, and Arizona is pretty dry.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona Geologically stable. And at least for business, politically stable. Same reason Walt Disney is frozen in Phoenix [1]. [1] https://www.alcor.org/ https://www.alcor.org/
- CamperBob2 4y ago
  Ah, the lesser-known Pascal's Wager business plan.
- tptacek 4y ago
  The Disney thing is an urban legend, right?
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Disney thing is an urban legend, right? I’ve heard the claim repeated by an Alcor employee. But they may have been repeating a myth. (Alcor definitely exists, and claims it chose Phoenix for the aforementioned reasons.)
    - pcwalton 4y ago
      Walt Disney was cremated. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/suspended-animation/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/suspended-animation/ It's right there on the death certificate: https://findadeath.com/wp-content/uploads/directory/w/Walt_Disney/walt-disney-death-certificate.jpg https://findadeath.com/wp-content/uploads/directory/w/Walt_D...
    - trashface 4y ago
      The legend I heard was that only his head was frozen. I believe Alcor does provide head freezing services and at cheaper cost than whole-body.
pvarangot 4y ago
ASU has a good optical engineering program too, electricity is no the only variable.

thehappypm 4y ago

Isn’t solar the cheapest energy per KwH? A sunny place like Arizona with tons of empty space should be able to cheaply deploy lots of energy.

samcheng 4y ago
The cheapest energy is from a hydroelectric plant built generations ago. Fun fact: That's why Boeing first built their planes outside Seattle - the electricity needed to refine the aluminum was cheap. These days, you can see that effect in the large datacenters that have sprung up near the Columbia River in Oregon. I'd guess TSMC's siting decision had a lot to do with tax breaks, labor pool, and cheap land.
- atlasunshrugged 4y ago
  Probably also hedging for geopolitical risk? Not sure how only having facilities in a country at least somewhat likely to be invaded in the next few years affects the stock price but it probably doesn't hurt to put one in the middle of a country very unlikely to be invaded and very likely to want to purchase chips built domestically.
  - gct 4y ago
    Fun fact most experts consider the US uninvadable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_United_States#Geographic_feasibility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_the_United_States#...
    - TedDoesntTalk 4y ago
      Another fun fact. There were incursions on both US coasts during WWII. Neither were significant: Long Island, Florida, and Maine invasion by nazi spies swimming to shore from German submarines: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/nazi-saboteurs-and-george-dasch#:~:text=Four%20men%2C%20led%20by%20George,%3B%20and%20Richard%20Quirin%2C%2034 https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/nazi-saboteurs-and-.... Japanese in Attu and Kiska islands in Alaska: https://www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-the-aleutian-islands https://www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-t...
- antonjs 4y ago
  Cheap, seismically stable, land.
totalZero 4y ago
I think that depends how much build-out you have to do in order to install the kind of capacity required for a $40B semiconductor fab, which would hypothetically need some kind of major energy storage infrastructure or backup source in the event that solar is the main source of electricity. > Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour, which is more than many automotive plants or oil refineries do. [0] If a fab is running at that consumption rate for twenty hours every day for one year, it will consume approximately all of Arizona's 735,000 MWh of annual utility-scale solar, wind, and geothermal net electricity generation. [1] Contrast that with the annual hydroelectric generation of Itaipu Dam in South America, at 79,440,000 MWh in 2019. [2] [0] https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/operations/pdfs/bringing_fabenergyefficiency.ashx https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_serv... [pdf] [1] https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=AZ [2] https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectric/ https://www.power-technology.com/projects/itaipu-hydroelectr...
- CydeWeys 4y ago
  > Large semiconductor fabs use as much as 100 megawatt-hours of power each hour Ooof, this kind of writing where the author doesn't understand units just gets my goat. Just say it uses 100 MW! Geez.
  - totalZero 4y ago
    I prefer it as written, because the additional information of timeframe for measurement indicates that the author is not talking about momentary/peak power.
    - j_walter 4y ago
      Which indicates the author knows nothing about how semiconductor fabs use power. Power usage is stable with a few percent...and 100MW is really on the low side for this fab. If all 6 phases are completed as they are expected to be...it's more like 250MW.
zdw 4y ago
There's also a nuclear plant nearby in AZ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_... Nuclear + Solar seems like it would be a pretty ideal mix in a hot climate, especially given that peak demand for air conditioning coincides with solar maximum output, and Nuclear could handle some of the base/overnight load.
- StreamBright 4y ago
  It is but you also need controllable components with the ability to quickly change output performance when building solar as your peak source. Usually this means gas turbines, in some cases this could also mean battery.
- jfghi 4y ago
  Do these plants not require tons of water?
  - zdw 4y ago
    from the wikipedia link - they use sewage/greywater for cooling: > The power plant evaporates the water from the treated sewage from several nearby cities and towns to provide the cooling of the steam that it produces.
    - miguelazo 4y ago
      This treated sewage is the water that Vegas now provides for general use, and what AZ will need just for its people in about 5 years. Wasting it on chip production is going to go over slightly better than the Saudis wasting groundwater on alfalfa.
      - thehappypm 4y ago
        They could literally truck Evian water in if they wanted to. Water is extremely cheap compared to just about every substance on earth, and it’s hard to imagine that water costs can be a problem for this type of operation.

wikibob 4y ago

Seismic activity

intrasight 4y ago

Also, I would think that lots of water is needed, and Arizona is pretty dry.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona Geologically stable. And at least for business, politically stable. Same reason Walt Disney is frozen in Phoenix [1]. [1] https://www.alcor.org/ https://www.alcor.org/

CamperBob2 4y ago
Ah, the lesser-known Pascal's Wager business plan.
tptacek 4y ago
The Disney thing is an urban legend, right?
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Disney thing is an urban legend, right? I’ve heard the claim repeated by an Alcor employee. But they may have been repeating a myth. (Alcor definitely exists, and claims it chose Phoenix for the aforementioned reasons.)
  - pcwalton 4y ago
    Walt Disney was cremated. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/suspended-animation/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/suspended-animation/ It's right there on the death certificate: https://findadeath.com/wp-content/uploads/directory/w/Walt_Disney/walt-disney-death-certificate.jpg https://findadeath.com/wp-content/uploads/directory/w/Walt_D...
  - trashface 4y ago
    The legend I heard was that only his head was frozen. I believe Alcor does provide head freezing services and at cheaper cost than whole-body.

pvarangot 4y ago

ASU has a good optical engineering program too, electricity is no the only variable.