5 ms·

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be a

by boc 4y ago

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.

selectodude 4y ago
It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
> If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. For which side? No one knows. There would be so many factors at play, both military and economic, that it is almost impossible to predict how things would play out. All anyone knows is that China's capabilities have increased many times over in the last 20 or so years, and that they are increasing every year. However, no country on Earth has fought a war on this scale for decades (with the possible exception of Russia and Ukraine right now), so no one knows what the outcome would be.
starkd 4y ago
That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.

5 ms·

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be a

by boc 4y ago

selectodude 4y ago
It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
> If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. For which side? No one knows. There would be so many factors at play, both military and economic, that it is almost impossible to predict how things would play out. All anyone knows is that China's capabilities have increased many times over in the last 20 or so years, and that they are increasing every year. However, no country on Earth has fought a war on this scale for decades (with the possible exception of Russia and Ukraine right now), so no one knows what the outcome would be.
starkd 4y ago
That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.