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I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defendin

by starkd 4y ago

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

FpUser 4y ago
>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot." I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.
- starkd 4y ago
  I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.
boc 4y ago
If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.
- selectodude 4y ago
  It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  > If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. For which side? No one knows. There would be so many factors at play, both military and economic, that it is almost impossible to predict how things would play out. All anyone knows is that China's capabilities have increased many times over in the last 20 or so years, and that they are increasing every year. However, no country on Earth has fought a war on this scale for decades (with the possible exception of Russia and Ukraine right now), so no one knows what the outcome would be.
- starkd 4y ago
  That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.
fintechjock 4y ago
> US has removed fighter jets from Japan. They’re phasing out older variants of the F-15 C. They will be replaced by F-15 EXs when they are ready, and until then the old F-15s will be replaced with F-22s
- starkd 4y ago
  Well, that's good to know. I hope you're right. The story I read neglected to mention that information.
philliphaydon 4y ago
> And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. Huh? No it hasn’t. Taiwan doesn’t want to end up like Hong kong. They know the 1 country 2 systems doesn’t exist. Taiwan is already an independent country. They just want to keep status quo so China will leave them alone.
- starkd 4y ago
  There is still widespread anti-unification support, but, as with everything, it's a bit more complex. Recent elections took a bit of the wind out of its sails. Chinese military excercises have taken somewhat of a toll. I know they don't want to end up like Hong Kong, but these public shifts matter if the people don't think they are being supported internationally. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-elections-set-stage-for-tighter-presidential-race-in-2024?leadSource=uverify%20wall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-el...
  - philliphaydon 4y ago
    Local elections don’t have any influence on national elections. Green always loses more to blue. The issue at national level isn’t anything to do with anti unification or anything like that. Alot of people here feel like real issues are not being dealt with. Like the cost of living continues to go up and isn’t addressed.
    - starkd 4y ago
      Well, I hope you're right. I'd hate to see Taiwan fall. It will be up to the Taiwanese on how hard they want to fight. Unfortunately, if they sense it's a losing proposition, many may end up throwing in the towel. That's what I fear.

by starkd 4y ago

FpUser 4y ago

>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot." I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.

starkd 4y ago
I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.

boc 4y ago

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.

selectodude 4y ago
It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
> If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. For which side? No one knows. There would be so many factors at play, both military and economic, that it is almost impossible to predict how things would play out. All anyone knows is that China's capabilities have increased many times over in the last 20 or so years, and that they are increasing every year. However, no country on Earth has fought a war on this scale for decades (with the possible exception of Russia and Ukraine right now), so no one knows what the outcome would be.
starkd 4y ago
That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.

fintechjock 4y ago

> US has removed fighter jets from Japan. They’re phasing out older variants of the F-15 C. They will be replaced by F-15 EXs when they are ready, and until then the old F-15s will be replaced with F-22s

starkd 4y ago
Well, that's good to know. I hope you're right. The story I read neglected to mention that information.

philliphaydon 4y ago

> And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. Huh? No it hasn’t. Taiwan doesn’t want to end up like Hong kong. They know the 1 country 2 systems doesn’t exist. Taiwan is already an independent country. They just want to keep status quo so China will leave them alone.

starkd 4y ago
There is still widespread anti-unification support, but, as with everything, it's a bit more complex. Recent elections took a bit of the wind out of its sails. Chinese military excercises have taken somewhat of a toll. I know they don't want to end up like Hong Kong, but these public shifts matter if the people don't think they are being supported internationally. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-elections-set-stage-for-tighter-presidential-race-in-2024?leadSource=uverify%20wall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-el...
- philliphaydon 4y ago
  Local elections don’t have any influence on national elections. Green always loses more to blue. The issue at national level isn’t anything to do with anti unification or anything like that. Alot of people here feel like real issues are not being dealt with. Like the cost of living continues to go up and isn’t addressed.
  - starkd 4y ago
    Well, I hope you're right. I'd hate to see Taiwan fall. It will be up to the Taiwanese on how hard they want to fight. Unfortunately, if they sense it's a losing proposition, many may end up throwing in the towel. That's what I fear.