5 ms·

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

by FpUser 4y ago

warinukraine 4y ago
Remember when Warren Buffet invested into TSMC and someone said he must know something we don't?
- PartiallyTyped 4y ago
  TSMC has had a license to print money for a while now given how huge ASML’s backlog is.
  - chrisjc 4y ago
    Is ASML even going to be able to meet the demand created by all these fabs opening up across the US (and rest of the world)? The stories I've heard about what it takes to build a single machine would suggest to me that scaling up would be a huge feat and I could only imagine take years to accomplish. Then again, perhaps TSMC and their peers had predicted this kind of growth and already placed their orders long ago?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - imhoguy 4y ago
      Maybe they will just move a chunk of existing fab?
    - tooltalk 4y ago
      ASML has now $32+B worth of backlog and they are still able to make only ~40+ EUV per year.
- criddell 4y ago
  I keep wondering if this is different than when Foxconn announced a $10b investment in Wisconsin but carried through less than 10% of that?
  - totalZero 4y ago
    Judging by the pictures, TSMC is building a lot of expensive-looking stuff out in Arizona. I know they're both Taiwanese companies but this project seems a bit different. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-to-triple-U.S.-chip-investment-to-40bn-to-serve-Apple-others https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-to...
- tooltalk 4y ago
  Buffet probably knows little or nothing about the fab industry and probably didn't make this investment decision. TSMC is upping their investment in the US, but I agree with Morris Chang that the US operation won't be as lucrative -- ie, thye won't be able to maintain 50+% profit margin. Further, TSMC really didn't have any competition in the last 2-3 nodes and Samsung was largely absent in 7/5/4nm, but Samsung is going mass production with 3nm GAA pretty soon and TSMC is going to have to put up a good fight to maintain their dominance.
starkd 4y ago
I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.
- FpUser 4y ago
  >"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot." I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.
  - starkd 4y ago
    I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.
- boc 4y ago
  If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.
  - selectodude 4y ago
    It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.
Rapzid 4y ago
In a sense.. Currently western liberal democracies have a monopoly on the most advanced microprocessor manufacturing tech.. And they plan to keep it that way indefinitely. This "sours the milk" so to speak and it makes it easier to take TSMC off the board. For one, if there was ever any real consideration by China of forceful takeover it would be made clear TSMC would not be a spoil of war. This makes a scorched earth threat even more credible. For two, it disincentizes playing games with Taiwan as a pawn based on the wests reliance on chips flowing out. Knowing the chips are flowing in large quantities from other countries removes the lynchpin status. Third, it stabilizes supply in the chance that something does happen. Maybe a natural disaster. Maybe a blockade.

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

by FpUser 4y ago

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

warinukraine 4y ago

Remember when Warren Buffet invested into TSMC and someone said he must know something we don't?

PartiallyTyped 4y ago
TSMC has had a license to print money for a while now given how huge ASML’s backlog is.
- chrisjc 4y ago
  Is ASML even going to be able to meet the demand created by all these fabs opening up across the US (and rest of the world)? The stories I've heard about what it takes to build a single machine would suggest to me that scaling up would be a huge feat and I could only imagine take years to accomplish. Then again, perhaps TSMC and their peers had predicted this kind of growth and already placed their orders long ago?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - imhoguy 4y ago
    Maybe they will just move a chunk of existing fab?
  - tooltalk 4y ago
    ASML has now $32+B worth of backlog and they are still able to make only ~40+ EUV per year.
criddell 4y ago
I keep wondering if this is different than when Foxconn announced a $10b investment in Wisconsin but carried through less than 10% of that?
- totalZero 4y ago
  Judging by the pictures, TSMC is building a lot of expensive-looking stuff out in Arizona. I know they're both Taiwanese companies but this project seems a bit different. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-to-triple-U.S.-chip-investment-to-40bn-to-serve-Apple-others https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-to...
tooltalk 4y ago
Buffet probably knows little or nothing about the fab industry and probably didn't make this investment decision. TSMC is upping their investment in the US, but I agree with Morris Chang that the US operation won't be as lucrative -- ie, thye won't be able to maintain 50+% profit margin. Further, TSMC really didn't have any competition in the last 2-3 nodes and Samsung was largely absent in 7/5/4nm, but Samsung is going mass production with 3nm GAA pretty soon and TSMC is going to have to put up a good fight to maintain their dominance.

starkd 4y ago

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

FpUser 4y ago
>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot." I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.
- starkd 4y ago
  I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.
boc 4y ago
If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian invasion of Ukrainian. Most people thought they’d reach Poland in days, if not hours. And they had the second most capable military in the world, on paper.
- selectodude 4y ago
  It’s also important to remember that a war game that your military wins isn’t a very useful war game. The whole goal is to find blind spots in military strategy and planning. “Nah we’re good everything is great” is how you end up getting worked by Ukraine.

Rapzid 4y ago

In a sense.. Currently western liberal democracies have a monopoly on the most advanced microprocessor manufacturing tech.. And they plan to keep it that way indefinitely. This "sours the milk" so to speak and it makes it easier to take TSMC off the board. For one, if there was ever any real consideration by China of forceful takeover it would be made clear TSMC would not be a spoil of war. This makes a scorched earth threat even more credible. For two, it disincentizes playing games with Taiwan as a pawn based on the wests reliance on chips flowing out. Knowing the chips are flowing in large quantities from other countries removes the lynchpin status. Third, it stabilizes supply in the chance that something does happen. Maybe a natural disaster. Maybe a blockade.