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This is basically propaganda. Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not

This is basically propaganda. Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape, and the general population has rallied around the government as a result of the sanctions. People tend to forget that not all of Putin's claims are propaganda and that Russia had some legitimate security concerns. The situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians. Of course, I will be downvoted and flagged like there is no tomorrow. But maybe some of you will start asking questions that the western governments would prefer you don't ask, just like with WMDs in Iraq.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Putin's popularity is widespread Most sources agree on this. Even the war per se remains popular. > the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape The data do not show this, but sure. The harm is in long-term capital and workforce degradation, not anything acute. > situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians Ethnic Russians are well treated by Moscow. Nobody predicts they'll create problems for the Kremlin. This article name drops the Caucusus. But there are various Turkic, Chechen and Siberian populations who would be the first to be expected to break from the Kremlin, albeit not imminently. None of what you've said contradicts the article's thesis. The Russian state is weakening, and, if it continues on this trajectory, will lose control of its peripheries.
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mensetmanusman 4y ago
The 1420 YT channel is a very young Russian guy walking the streets of Moscow etc. and just asking questions. https://youtube.com/@1420channel https://youtube.com/@1420channel Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. There are also many who know it is not safe to say their true feelings because they could get arrested.
- netsharc 4y ago
  > Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. Well, if I was talking with one of those Russians, I wonder how they think the 2 pathways would pan out. If Putin hadn't invaded, I think NATO would've left Putin/Russia alone and be satisfied with the status quo (with Putin supplying cheap energy to Europe, who cares if he's a corrupt jackass in his own country). Now that invasion has happened and no time machines, what would a Putin victory look like? Even if he conquers Ukraine, the sanctions won't stop, i.e. even if the Ukranians laid down their arms, that would just end the shooting war but not the economic one. Meanwhile, what would defeat look like? Even if Russia laid down their arms and left Ukraine, the economic sanctions won't stop either, until..? A Putin regime change? NATO wouldn't be satisfied if he just got a puppet to replace him. Meanwhile for the average Russian, Putin not being in power would be like what this article portrays - separatist conflicts; or Russia being under Western (or Chinese?) control. So I can see why they'd prefer a NATO surrender rather than a Putin surrender...
  - avmich 4y ago
    It's hard to deduce they'd prefer a NATO surrender. First, they won't tell - and some even don't have enough time/will/ability to make an opinion. Second, that opinion will change in an instant, as soon as NATO surrender will demonstrate its benefits. And even if not, almost all of them will mostly complain privately, rather than do anything. Russia's society is very atomized.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Even if Russia laid down their arms and left Ukraine, the economic sanctions won't stop either, until..? If Putin walked back troops even to just the pre-2022 borders and ceased bombing Ukraine, he could get most sanctions reversed. If he withdrew from all but Crimes, he could negotiate an end to special arms shipments to Ukraine.
    - netsharc 4y ago
      I'm aware don't know what I'm talking about, but are you sure it's that simple? I feel the EU leaders would fear looking() weak/appeasing Putin/giving him time, money and access to resources to rebuild a war machinery, so, is "sanctions reversal" and not giving Ukraine defense really on the table? Only if Putin is badly beaten would the surrender be accepted as genuine, nowadays no one in NATO believes that he'll keep his promises. IMO of course. in front of the public, the opposition parties, and all the media pundits.
orbital-decay 4y ago
>Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape, and the general population has rallied around the government as a result of the sanctions. This is largely the picture they want to see, choosing to ignore the reality. The USSR crash was also a surprise to unreasonable amount of its citizens. What's actually happening under the hood is massive wealth redistribution and a fundamental crash of the political system, and what comes out from the rubble won't be pretty, especially because a lot of passionate people fled the country. Something clicked in the heads of many people, this is not the usual frog boiling, demons are really out this time. >The situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians No, it never was. The reason Donbas is somehow special at all is just that the FSB-led coup succeded in 2014 there, unlike similar attempts in Kherson, Odessa, Kharkiv etc which failed. Mariupol (at which the 2014 invasion had been stopped) is also Donbas and had no troubles post 2014 at all. (until 2022...) Had they succeed in other cities, the same point would have been made about those by the propaganda. Nobody cared about "the situation in Donbas" (whatever it is) pre 2014, neither did people really care about Crimea, it's all smoke and mirrors set up by Kremlin. If something ever was a pain point for ethnic Russians as well as everybody else, it's regimes that were installed in Donetsk/Luhansk. These are man-eating systems. There's no Donbas anymore. Donbas is destroyed. Donetsk, once a thriving city, is largely depopulated at this point. And not due to "Ukraine attacking it for 8 years", mind you. (context: I'm also Russian who followed all this not from the mainstream media, probably unlike some of your friends)
AtlasBarfed 4y ago
Does Putin have cancer and parkinson's? Does Russia have the military strength to keep Belarus in the fold and keep control over Georgia, Chechnya, etc, and keep Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan under their influence? And Ukraine now has a national identity, patriotism, and a very modern army, and deep roots of cooperation and trust with the west. The US has always wanted a major influence satellite by Russia (besides Turkey), and holy crap do they have one with Ukraine. Ukraine will be the beneficiary of military and foreign aid for decades now. If this was 100 years ago (as in no nuclear weapons), Ukraine would be a direct threat to Moscow. You chew up the best regular forces your enemy (whose capital Moscow is, what, a couple hundred miles away?), and you make them dip into reservists, while you build out a superior, better equipped, better trained, better motivated army, you know what happens historically? Without nuclear weapons, I wouldn't be predicting Ukrainian victory in terms of repulsing the current invasions. I wouldn't be predicting they retake Crimea. I would be predicting Ukraine would take Belarus, Moscow, complete control of the Black Sea, and all of Moscow's imperial, uh, Federation Members would break away. And likely all of Russia would become a vassal state of Ukraine.
- avmich 4y ago
  > I would be predicting Ukraine would take Belarus I would think in modern society territorial occupation is a losing proposition. I think Ukraine (its government) is smart enough not to inflict to itself the pain of managing Belarus.
WeylandYutani 4y ago
This does not make sense Russia has lost huge parts of their military how is the Ukraine invasion addressing their security concerns? Putin has single handedly put 20 years of accumulated oil money on fire.
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JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> Putin's popularity is widespread Most sources agree on this. Even the war per se remains popular. > the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape The data do not show this, but sure. The harm is in long-term capital and workforce degradation, not anything acute. > situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians Ethnic Russians are well treated by Moscow. Nobody predicts they'll create problems for the Kremlin. This article name drops the Caucusus. But there are various Turkic, Chechen and Siberian populations who would be the first to be expected to break from the Kremlin, albeit not imminently. None of what you've said contradicts the article's thesis. The Russian state is weakening, and, if it continues on this trajectory, will lose control of its peripheries.

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mensetmanusman 4y ago

The 1420 YT channel is a very young Russian guy walking the streets of Moscow etc. and just asking questions. https://youtube.com/@1420channel https://youtube.com/@1420channel Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. There are also many who know it is not safe to say their true feelings because they could get arrested.

netsharc 4y ago
> Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. Well, if I was talking with one of those Russians, I wonder how they think the 2 pathways would pan out. If Putin hadn't invaded, I think NATO would've left Putin/Russia alone and be satisfied with the status quo (with Putin supplying cheap energy to Europe, who cares if he's a corrupt jackass in his own country). Now that invasion has happened and no time machines, what would a Putin victory look like? Even if he conquers Ukraine, the sanctions won't stop, i.e. even if the Ukranians laid down their arms, that would just end the shooting war but not the economic one. Meanwhile, what would defeat look like? Even if Russia laid down their arms and left Ukraine, the economic sanctions won't stop either, until..? A Putin regime change? NATO wouldn't be satisfied if he just got a puppet to replace him. Meanwhile for the average Russian, Putin not being in power would be like what this article portrays - separatist conflicts; or Russia being under Western (or Chinese?) control. So I can see why they'd prefer a NATO surrender rather than a Putin surrender...
- avmich 4y ago
  It's hard to deduce they'd prefer a NATO surrender. First, they won't tell - and some even don't have enough time/will/ability to make an opinion. Second, that opinion will change in an instant, as soon as NATO surrender will demonstrate its benefits. And even if not, almost all of them will mostly complain privately, rather than do anything. Russia's society is very atomized.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Even if Russia laid down their arms and left Ukraine, the economic sanctions won't stop either, until..? If Putin walked back troops even to just the pre-2022 borders and ceased bombing Ukraine, he could get most sanctions reversed. If he withdrew from all but Crimes, he could negotiate an end to special arms shipments to Ukraine.
  - netsharc 4y ago
    I'm aware don't know what I'm talking about, but are you sure it's that simple? I feel the EU leaders would fear looking() weak/appeasing Putin/giving him time, money and access to resources to rebuild a war machinery, so, is "sanctions reversal" and not giving Ukraine defense really on the table? Only if Putin is badly beaten would the surrender be accepted as genuine, nowadays no one in NATO believes that he'll keep his promises. IMO of course. in front of the public, the opposition parties, and all the media pundits.

orbital-decay 4y ago

>Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape, and the general population has rallied around the government as a result of the sanctions. This is largely the picture they want to see, choosing to ignore the reality. The USSR crash was also a surprise to unreasonable amount of its citizens. What's actually happening under the hood is massive wealth redistribution and a fundamental crash of the political system, and what comes out from the rubble won't be pretty, especially because a lot of passionate people fled the country. Something clicked in the heads of many people, this is not the usual frog boiling, demons are really out this time. >The situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians No, it never was. The reason Donbas is somehow special at all is just that the FSB-led coup succeded in 2014 there, unlike similar attempts in Kherson, Odessa, Kharkiv etc which failed. Mariupol (at which the 2014 invasion had been stopped) is also Donbas and had no troubles post 2014 at all. (until 2022...) Had they succeed in other cities, the same point would have been made about those by the propaganda. Nobody cared about "the situation in Donbas" (whatever it is) pre 2014, neither did people really care about Crimea, it's all smoke and mirrors set up by Kremlin. If something ever was a pain point for ethnic Russians as well as everybody else, it's regimes that were installed in Donetsk/Luhansk. These are man-eating systems. There's no Donbas anymore. Donbas is destroyed. Donetsk, once a thriving city, is largely depopulated at this point. And not due to "Ukraine attacking it for 8 years", mind you. (context: I'm also Russian who followed all this not from the mainstream media, probably unlike some of your friends)

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

Does Putin have cancer and parkinson's? Does Russia have the military strength to keep Belarus in the fold and keep control over Georgia, Chechnya, etc, and keep Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan under their influence? And Ukraine now has a national identity, patriotism, and a very modern army, and deep roots of cooperation and trust with the west. The US has always wanted a major influence satellite by Russia (besides Turkey), and holy crap do they have one with Ukraine. Ukraine will be the beneficiary of military and foreign aid for decades now. If this was 100 years ago (as in no nuclear weapons), Ukraine would be a direct threat to Moscow. You chew up the best regular forces your enemy (whose capital Moscow is, what, a couple hundred miles away?), and you make them dip into reservists, while you build out a superior, better equipped, better trained, better motivated army, you know what happens historically? Without nuclear weapons, I wouldn't be predicting Ukrainian victory in terms of repulsing the current invasions. I wouldn't be predicting they retake Crimea. I would be predicting Ukraine would take Belarus, Moscow, complete control of the Black Sea, and all of Moscow's imperial, uh, Federation Members would break away. And likely all of Russia would become a vassal state of Ukraine.

avmich 4y ago
> I would be predicting Ukraine would take Belarus I would think in modern society territorial occupation is a losing proposition. I think Ukraine (its government) is smart enough not to inflict to itself the pain of managing Belarus.

WeylandYutani 4y ago

This does not make sense Russia has lost huge parts of their military how is the Ukraine invasion addressing their security concerns? Putin has single handedly put 20 years of accumulated oil money on fire.

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