4 ms·

An impact this size happens on average every 25,000 years A comet on default settings. T-that can't be right, r-right?

by zppln 4y ago

TeMPOraL 4y ago
Don't worry, we're overdue a climate-altering / mass-extinction-triggering supervolcano eruption anyway.
- maxbond 4y ago
  I'm sure you know this, but just to point out, we're no more "overdue" for a supervolcano because it's been longer than average since an eruption than a gambler is "due" to win because they've pulled the arm on their slot machine enough times. (Though iirc some volcanoes are periodic. But unless I'm quite mistaken, supervolcanoes aren't periodic globally.)
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    Is there really no memory in this process? I imagine to some extent, some tensions would be building up or something like that.
    - maxbond 4y ago
      I don't feel qualified to say there is no "memory", if I make claims any stronger than I've made already I'll be out of my depth, but see the information below for instance: > Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-... I think these are just very complex systems with many different factors, like the kind of rock they're under, what's going on with the continental plate at that time, etc. We don't have a good understanding of what's happening in the mantle, which is especially relevant for hotspot volcanoes like Yellowstone that are fed from the mantle (note that this is not how all supervolcanoes work). Allow me to leave you with an awesome animation of the formation of a very different supervolcano: https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc
- go_elmo 4y ago
  no need to need luck - we'll extinct ourselves with co2 quite soon, gg
- pharke 4y ago
  All y'all in here worrying about once an eon events when CMEs be like "shit I'm late for my centennial"
swagasaurus-rex 4y ago
There’s currently controversial archaeological evidence for a younger dryas (12,900 years ago) meteorite impact which caused mass global cooling, though thats one of several theories. There’s also speculation and some small amount of material evidence that a meteorite airburst the middle east/levant[1] maybe leading to myths of cataclysm like Sodom. The 1908 blast at Tunguska in Siberia is now widely regarded as a result of a cosmic airbust. There seems to be a growing body of evidence that large, city-destroying asteroids are actually quite frequent in geological terms. The odds of hitting an actual city are low, but I don’t like those odds [1] https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-middle-east.html https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-mi...
- maxbond 4y ago
  Certainly the Chelyabinsk event should give us all some pause.
midasuni 4y ago
That means that size would happen on land about once every 100,000 years, and about 1/3 of those wouod land in a desert (mainly Antarctic, Arctic tundra, or Sahara)

An impact this size happens on average every 25,000 years A comet on default settings. T-that can't be right, r-right?

by zppln 4y ago

An impact this size happens on average every 25,000 years A comet on default settings. T-that can't be right, r-right?

TeMPOraL 4y ago

Don't worry, we're overdue a climate-altering / mass-extinction-triggering supervolcano eruption anyway.

maxbond 4y ago
I'm sure you know this, but just to point out, we're no more "overdue" for a supervolcano because it's been longer than average since an eruption than a gambler is "due" to win because they've pulled the arm on their slot machine enough times. (Though iirc some volcanoes are periodic. But unless I'm quite mistaken, supervolcanoes aren't periodic globally.)
- bee_rider 4y ago
  Is there really no memory in this process? I imagine to some extent, some tensions would be building up or something like that.
  - maxbond 4y ago
    I don't feel qualified to say there is no "memory", if I make claims any stronger than I've made already I'll be out of my depth, but see the information below for instance: > Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-... I think these are just very complex systems with many different factors, like the kind of rock they're under, what's going on with the continental plate at that time, etc. We don't have a good understanding of what's happening in the mantle, which is especially relevant for hotspot volcanoes like Yellowstone that are fed from the mantle (note that this is not how all supervolcanoes work). Allow me to leave you with an awesome animation of the formation of a very different supervolcano: https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc
go_elmo 4y ago
no need to need luck - we'll extinct ourselves with co2 quite soon, gg
pharke 4y ago
All y'all in here worrying about once an eon events when CMEs be like "shit I'm late for my centennial"

swagasaurus-rex 4y ago

There’s currently controversial archaeological evidence for a younger dryas (12,900 years ago) meteorite impact which caused mass global cooling, though thats one of several theories. There’s also speculation and some small amount of material evidence that a meteorite airburst the middle east/levant[1] maybe leading to myths of cataclysm like Sodom. The 1908 blast at Tunguska in Siberia is now widely regarded as a result of a cosmic airbust. There seems to be a growing body of evidence that large, city-destroying asteroids are actually quite frequent in geological terms. The odds of hitting an actual city are low, but I don’t like those odds [1] https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-middle-east.html https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-mi...

maxbond 4y ago
Certainly the Chelyabinsk event should give us all some pause.

midasuni 4y ago

That means that size would happen on land about once every 100,000 years, and about 1/3 of those wouod land in a desert (mainly Antarctic, Arctic tundra, or Sahara)